Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast recorded cocoa shipments of approximately 2.11 million metric tons in the current marketing year, up 20% year on year. However, early estimates for the 2026/27 season point to production of around 1.8 million tons, reflecting an expected decline from current levels as warmer and drier conditions threaten yields.
• Ghana also reported strong production growth, with output rising 25.6% to 750,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season. The outlook for 2026/27 is considerably weaker, with production potentially falling to between 450,000 and 550,000 tons. Aging plantations, swollen shoot disease, and the risk of unfavorable weather are key concerns, while illegal mining continues to put agricultural land under pressure.
• Nigeria's cocoa exports increased 30% year on year in June to 80,922 tons, indicating strong near-term supply. However, production is forecast to decline 11% to around 305,000 tons in the 2026/27 season as weather conditions become less favorable for cocoa cultivation.
• The broader West African cocoa sector faces significant exposure to the potential El Nino pattern, which could bring higher temperatures and altered rainfall patterns across the region. With the event potentially among the strongest in decades, its impact on flowering, crop development, and yields could be substantial.
• Lower production expectations have already led major market analysts to reduce their estimates for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus. The revisions point toward a tighter supply balance, increasing the potential for changes in cocoa availability and pricing as the new season develops.