Global Canola Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Canada: A satellite based estimate released September 16, 2026 projects 2026/27 production at 22,100,000 tons, a 0.8% decline year on year, driven by a record harvested area of 23,000,000 acres (up 8%) offset by an 8.3% yield drop to 41.8 bushels per acre. USDA's figure is slightly higher at 22,500,000 tons on a record planted area. Demand remains robust, with industrial crush reaching a new high of 12,900,000 tons in 2025/26 (up 13% year on year) and projected to climb to 13,700,000 tons in 2026/27. October crush margins near C$200 per ton are about 70% higher than last year, and canola oil exports may set a record at 4,000,000 tons. Statistics Canada finalized 2025/26 ending stocks at 1,900,000 tons, in line with the five year average despite prior concerns over China's absence. Key risks include adverse weather, market positioning, and trade tensions with the US, though improved China trade relations offer a positive offset.
• Australia: Facing limited supply despite an acreage shift toward canola and barley at wheat's expense, with production set to decline on drought, particularly in the Eastern states. ABARES estimates production at 7,300,000 tons, while USDA predicts 6,180,000 tons. October to June exports are down 9.2% to 4,490,000 tons, though Chinese demand persists. Below average rainfall poses ongoing risk to critical development stages.
• European Union: Continuing to grapple with a structural oilseed deficit, with output projected at 19,850,000 tons, down from the previous period. Declining yields and reduced third country imports are compounding supply constraints, with the 2027 outlook further clouded by potential cuts to rapeseed planting area and inland logistics issues weighing on supply chains. In France, ongoing dry weather has pushed the EU decline further, forcing a shift in crop rotation with winter barley acreage at its highest since 2016/17, though weaker feed barley economics and a softer French corn crop could moderate that shift into mid-2027.
• Ukraine: The 2026 harvest reached 3,789,000 tons, with strong August export activity of 520,000 tons in seed equivalent, though port suspensions remain a significant logistical constraint on export flows.
• Russia: Demonstrating aggressive expansion, with a projected crop between 7.3 and 8.0 million tons on a record planted area, harvest progress running ahead of last year, largely serving China's demand for rapeseed oil.
• India: The presowing period for Rabi rapeseed mustard planting faces modest risk from rainfall deficits that could affect sowing schedules and early crop growth, with regional rainfall deficits and cooler temperatures notable but not extreme historically.