Contracted hops in a flat year: $2,400 a year of hops you bought and did not brew. Mac and Wren on why the contract was the responsible thing to sign, the four ways out (priced honestly), and why the surplus market seizes up exactly when you need it. First Runnings: the contract was the responsible thing to do at the time — and that is what makes it hurt. The farm plants in spring off what you committed in winter. They can't plant on optimism. Hot Side: the arithmetic, assumptions throughout. Assume 800 lb a year of one variety at an assumed $12 a pound: $9,600 committed. Assume production comes in 25% under plan — you brew 600 pounds' worth and carry 200. Two hundred pounds at $12 is $2,400 a year of hops bought and not brewed. Over a three-year contract, that's $7,200 — and the number is not a write-off: you own the hops, sitting in a cooler, losing alpha while you decide. Ask BrewBuddy (real question, real account, whatever it says is what you hear): how much of each hop variety did we use in the last twelve months? [Capture pending — this note updates when the take lands.] Dry Hops: write the worst-year volume next to the contract volume, on the same page, before you sign — not the forecast, the worst year. And never sign a contract in the month you had your best sales week. Sign in February. Nobody's celebrating in February. Last Call: pull your hop contracts and write your actual last-twelve-months usage beside each committed volume. If the two columns don't match, you just found your two hundred pounds before you paid for it. Cold Side is from FermentIQ — built by a brewer, fifteen years on the floor, no engineering background, who directed AI coding agents to build the ERP he couldn't buy. It runs the whole operation, grain to glass. The first thirty days are free and you can cancel anytime at ferment-iq.com.