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Compound Growth

Compound Growth

著者： Compound Growth
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We will share insights into current market movements, tips for achieving financial freedom, and answer common questions about the financial world.

© 2026 Compound Growth マネジメント・リーダーシップ リーダーシップ 個人ファイナンス 個人的成功 経済学 自己啓発
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  • The SaaSpocalypse That Wasn't, a Strait of Hormuz Workaround, and the Architecture of Your Own Spending

    The SaaSpocalypse That Wasn't, a Strait of Hormuz Workaround, and the Architecture of Your Own Spending
    2026/09/07

    Wheeler's Whoop sent him a pop-up after his first Rolfing session, checking in on how his body was feeling — which kicked off a bigger question the hosts have been circling for a while: is AI actually adding value, or is it just smoke and mirrors dressed up as a feature? Colin pushes back with a skeptic's case (a check-in doesn't move revenue, and everything these days claims an AI component the same way everything once claimed to be "turbo"), while Wheeler makes the counterpoint that a system paying attention, even imperfectly, is worth something — especially set against how hard it's gotten to land an actual primary care appointment.

    From there, the August markets recap: emerging markets led the month, up roughly 10%, largely on the back of Taiwan Semiconductor's outsized weight in the index; Bitcoin jumped about 20% in August but is still down for the year; and bonds, as usual, lagged. The "SaaSpocalypse" that hammered software stocks earlier in 2026 has mostly reversed — ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Shopify have clawed back most of their losses, and the sector ETF (IGV) is now positive on the year, which the hosts use to make the case that AI is more likely to strengthen entrenched platforms like CRMs than replace them outright. NVIDIA's Q2 earnings get a full breakdown too: triple-digit year-over-year growth across hyperscale/AI cloud, industrial enterprise, and data centers, a reported 62% margin, and a flag on a rising accounts-payable balance worth watching. A chart comparing CPI, core CPI, and PCE closes out the numbers — however you slice it, inflation is trending down, even if grocery-store sticker shock doesn't feel like it.

    The back half turns to geopolitics and financial planning: why Dubai is building a new port on its west coast to route around the Strait of Hormuz, a history tangent about a 1793 British diplomatic mission to China that got flatly rejected by the Qing emperor, and a breakdown of "choice architecture" — the idea that every checkout flow, sale, and saved payment method is designed to get you to spend, and you can design your own systems right back. Two client wins close the show: a $13,000–$15,000 position in Nvidia and Broadcom now worth $250,000–$300,000 that a client is gifting to family, and a couple who used the debt snowball method to pay off their credit cards and student loans and now have an extra $6,000 a month to put toward a 529 and a Trump account for their new baby.

    Sources:
    Whoop, AI-powered check-in feature (referenced on the recording; built on OpenAI per the hosts)
    NVIDIA Q2 FY27 earnings report and cash-flow Sankey chart (referenced on the recording; not independently verified)
    DP World / Strait of Hormuz shipping and port-expansion reporting (referenced on the recording; original source not specified)
    Inflation data — CPI, core CPI, and PCE (referenced on the recording; not independently verified)

    Follow Us:

    • Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/compoundgrowthpod
    • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CompoundGrowthPodcast
    • TikTok: http://www.tiktok.com/@compoundgrowthpod
    • Wheeler’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wheeler-crowley-0a63933b/
    • Colin’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-walker-mba-6099a038/

    Credits:
    Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker
    Production, Editing and Post-Production: Tori Rothwell
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    48 分
  • Who Really Owns the Debt, the Worst Trade of the Last Five Years, and Mark Cuban's Equity Tax Idea

    Who Really Owns the Debt, the Worst Trade of the Last Five Years, and Mark Cuban's Equity Tax Idea
    2026/08/31
    Wheeler opens this week's headline discussion after a conversation with his partner Jess, who came away from an NPR Up First segment thinking that countries lending the U.S. money are charging higher interest rates because the U.S. looks riskier — and that the resulting interest payments now exceed the national defense budget. The hosts use it as a jumping-off point to explain how U.S. debt actually works: the government issues new Treasury bonds and notes to the open global market, and the market, not a handshake with any one country, sets the rate. A chart breaking down ownership of the national debt shows foreign governments and investors hold about 24% (Japan, not China, is currently the largest single foreign holder), U.S. private retail investors and mutual funds hold 28.5%, intragovernmental accounts hold 20%, the Federal Reserve holds 11%, and other U.S. banks and state/local governments hold 8% each. The hosts push back hard on the idea, visible in social comments under a post about Japan's holdings, that a foreign country "owning" U.S. debt gives it leverage over the country: a Treasury bond is a contractual loan with a term, a rate, and an expiration date, not a geopolitical hold. What actually matters, they argue, is whether the U.S. ever defaults, not who's holding the paper.That leads into the bond market itself: the 30-year Treasury yield spiked to 5.53% last week, reportedly its highest level since 2007. The hosts connect it to a separate headline about total margin debt hitting an all-time high near $1.5 trillion, arguing neither figure is automatically bad — margin debt rises naturally when a rallying stock market inflates the value backing it, and a high yield mostly reflects what the market is pricing today rather than signaling a crisis on its own. They also point to a chart tracking the dollar against Bitcoin and gold: when the new 30-year issuance and yield spike hit last week, Bitcoin jumped roughly 20% (from about 64,000 to about 78,000) and gold rose 5-6%, while the dollar index slipped about 1%, with the hosts noting Bitcoin's chart currently tracks gold's pattern more closely than the Nasdaq's.From there, the conversation turns to a rough stretch for conservative portfolios: TLT, the 20-plus-year Treasury bond ETF that was a popular "safe" allocation heading into 2022, has returned roughly -7.68% annualized over the last five years, and even the broader Aggregate Bond Index is close to flat over the same stretch — meaning bond investors have effectively lost ground to inflation while the stock market kept climbing. The hosts use it to unpack what "risk-free rate" actually means: mortgage and auto loan rates track long-term Treasury yields, not the Fed's overnight rate, and with 30-year Treasuries near 5.5%, the bar for stock returns to be worth the added risk is that much higher.The back half turns to a Mark Cuban tweet arguing corporate tax rates should rise for companies that don't share equity with employees and hold steady for those that do, tying it to broader frustration with wealth disparity. The hosts are skeptical it would change much in practice, but agree the underlying wealth gap is real: a chart tracking indexed real wealth since 2019 shows higher, equity-heavy incomes pulling away from middle, real-estate-heavy incomes and lower, cash-heavy incomes, and the hosts cite reporting that roughly 4,400 SpaceX employees became millionaires off the company's valuation gains, with about 400 of them passing the $100 million mark. Cutting the other way, a Bank of America chart the hosts flag as a "narrative buster" shows after-tax wage growth for lower-income households at 4.1% year-over-year in June, actually outpacing the 3.4% rate for middle-income households, while higher-income wage growth dipped, even as a separate consumer sentiment reading cited on the show shows sentiment dropping sharply, with only about 8% of consumers surveyed expecting their wages to outpace inflation over the next year.Wheeler ties it together with a detour into the French Revolution's three-estate voting structure as a historical parallel for feeling unheard, and the two close on a lighter note, borrowing a bit from Ted Lasso about the unifying power of a common enemy (they land on AI, only half-joking). They land on the idea that the goal isn't erasing wealth inequality entirely, but making sure lower- and middle-income households have a genuinely good quality of life, while acknowledging that's a feeling the data alone won't fix anytime soon.Sources:NPR, Up First (referenced on the recording)National debt ownership breakdown chart (referenced on the recording; original source not specified — recommend confirming before publishing)Y Charts, dollar/Bitcoin/gold comparison (referenced on the recording)Bank of America, wage growth data, "Exhibit 4" (referenced on the recording; not independently verified this session)Mark Cuban, public post on corporate tax rates and equity sharing (...
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    47 分
  • Moderna's Best Day Ever, Nvidia's Plan to Securitize Compute, and Dark Fiber All Over Again

    Moderna's Best Day Ever, Nvidia's Plan to Securitize Compute, and Dark Fiber All Over Again
    2026/08/24

    Moderna jumped roughly 130–137% in a single day this week on a major mRNA cancer breakthrough: a personalized cancer shot, built using AI to sequence a patient's own tumor, completed Phase 3 trials with strong results. The hosts trace it back to Keytruda, the immunotherapy drug that's driven much of Merck's revenue for about 14 years, which works by helping the immune system detect cancer that would otherwise hide from it. Moderna's shot goes a step further, tailoring treatment to each patient's specific tumor, first tested in melanoma and now expanding into bladder cancer. Tempus AI, which does the AI sequencing behind the scenes, was only up about 12% the same day, a reminder the service provider rarely captures the same upside as the company that owns the drug. With short interest near 13% against the S&P average of 2.5%, the hosts debate whether this is a short squeeze as much as a scientific breakthrough, and revisit Morgan Housel's "buy low, sell high" critique: you don't plant a tree so you can cut it down.

    That leads into a broader AI-investing thesis: favor the "downfield" companies with long track records already seeing real ROI from AI adoption, the shovel sellers over the gold miners. They flag hesitation around chipmakers like Micron, where near-term value may already be priced in, versus well-run, non-cyclical companies just beginning to benefit.

    A stock screen with the firm's intern surfaces a diabetes-treatment company, sparking a debate about investing in treatments versus cures: a treatment is recurring revenue, while a cure, like Gilead's hepatitis C drug, is a one-time win with no repeat business. That leads into the widely covered Lindsay Clancy case, a mother's postpartum psychosis that escalated after weeks of rising antidepressant doses, which the hosts use to raise a broader point about underfunded research into women's health, particularly around childbirth and postpartum care, relative to men's health.

    The back half digs into a CNBC-hosted Nvidia town hall with banks including KKR, floating a plan to package AI compute into a tradable asset class, "compute notes" that guarantee performance and pay interest, with Nvidia positioned as matchmaker rather than lender. The hosts compare it to pre-leasing a commercial building or securitizing aircraft, and revisit the dot-com-era "dark fiber" buildout, when telecom companies laid far more capacity than was needed, only for it to fill up decades later. Their disagreement: today's compute is being used right now, not decades from now, which changes the risk without resolving it. Both agree the underlying AI investment is producing real returns; they're skeptical anyone needs a new securitized product to capture it.

    Closing out, the hosts pick apart a Betterment survey claiming 22% of Gen Z investors treat prediction markets as part of their financial plan, a number drawn from roughly 250 of 1,000 respondents with no visibility into how the question was actually worded. That leads into an AI-generated deepfake video of several former presidents singing that fooled an older relative on Facebook, and a wider conversation about financial literacy, the wealth gap, and Trump savings accounts for kids. They close on how constant comparison online creates a sense of missing out that didn't exist growing up with less money, tying it back to a documentary about a small Italian town overwhelmed by tourists chasing an Instagram-perfect version of the place.

    Sources:
    Moderna, Phase 3 trial and stock update (referenced on the recording; not independently verified this session)
    Merck, Keytruda background (referenced on the recording)
    Tempus AI (referenced on the recording)
    Betterment, Gen Z investor survey (referenced on the recording; not independently verified this session)

    Follow Us:

    • Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/compoundgrowthpod
    • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CompoundGrowthPodcast
    • TikTok: http://www.tiktok.com/@compoundgrowthpod
    • Wheeler’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wheeler-crowley-0a63933b/
    • Colin’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-walker-mba-6099a038/

    Credits:
    Created By: Wheeler Crowley and Colin Walker
    Production, Editing and Post-Production: Tori Rothwell
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    41 分
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