『Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s R&D, Meta drops an 816B open model & Gemini 4 Argon』のカバーアート

Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s R&D, Meta drops an 816B open model & Gemini 4 Argon

Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s R&D, Meta drops an 816B open model & Gemini 4 Argon

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 Hey, it’s Alex 👋What a freaking week! I spent 3 days at AI Engineer in New York, and we did the show from a real studio in Manhattan (the internet did NOT cooperate at first, but we got there 😅). And while I was running around the Sheraton, the labs kept shipping.Meta became a frontier lab, for real this time. Muse Wonder is #2 on Arena, and then, in the last minutes of the show, Meta ALSO dropped Muse Spark Open, an 816B open weights model. Google’s big Gemini is finally back with Gemini 4 Argon, and Omar Sanseviero and Geneviève Huskens from Google DeepMind came on to show it off. Anthropic gave us 4 stories plus a rumor, and Nathan Benaich came by to talk State of AI 2026.My theme this week: AI engineers are sleeping on personal agents. More on that below, including how my Muse found this studio and got me coffee on the way here.With me: Wolfram Ravenwolf, Peter Gostev (Arena), Nisten, Yam Peleg and LDJ (who brought the breaking news, as always). Let’s dive in (all links at the end as always!)Meta is BACK at the frontierMuse Wonder - Meta’s first frontier model is #2 on Arena, and it smells BIG (X, X, Arena, Blog)Folks, we told you after Llama 4 was a disaster, we told you when Zuck started hiring people with soup: do not, under any circumstances, bet against Zuck (and now Alex Wang). Muse Wonder is #2 on Arena Text at 1513, 12 points behind Argon, and it definitely smells like a big model.There are 2 of them. Muse Wonder is in the API at $4 in / $20 out per million tokens, basically Opus 5.5 pricing. Muse Wonder Full, the better one, is only for Muse Code subscribers at $50 or $200 a month. Did you see what they did there? Everybody calls their top setting “Max”, Meta called it Full, so it’s... Wonder Full. Wonderful 😂 No open weights for either, Meta says they’re too big and maybe too risky.Meta’s own table beats Opus, Astra and Fable on a bunch of evals... but Personal Superintelligence Index, GDP.pdf, JobBench, MemoryBench (which Meta built, and then won)? I’ve never seen most of these. Every launch now is the iPhone 18 moment: numbers bigger, best one yet.On evals we know, Artificial Analysis has Wonder Full at 56 and Wonder at 52, Opus 5.5 on top at 58. And on OSWorld, the Wonder we can use sits below Fable and Opus, and computer use is the number one thing I need from an assistant.Peter’s Arena view: #2 on text means people like talking to it, but it’s 12th on Agent Arena, and he tried building websites with it, “it was kind of awful.” His theory: Theo loved Wonder Full and thought the API Wonder was bad, so maybe Meta is talking about a different model than the one we got. Not ideal. He also found the half-life of a benchmark quoted in a launch is about ONE release: quote it once because the number looks good, never see it again.Wolfram says it’s excellent in German. Nisten joined not knowing what Muse Wonder was (”No idea”), sometimes our co-hosts come to get their news from the show.My Muse got upgraded with a clickHere’s where I disagree with the timeline. “It can’t do 3D scenes, so it sucks” misses the point. Meta is tuning Wonder for Muse, the personal agent. Officially, Wonder will “soon” power more of Muse, subscribers first. I’m on the paid plan, and my Muse (Wilfred) flipped to Wonder the moment I subscribed. Matrix moment: “I know kung fu.”Then I kept shoving tasks at it. Muse found the podcast studio I recorded from in NY and emailed Ezra at Virgo Studios with my requirements, got me coffee on the way here, and designed and ordered the wristbands for our AIE sauna meetup. The failures weren’t logic, they were the real world: a site that’s blank because Cloudflare doesn’t like agents, a Stripe link that wouldn’t connect, and businesses that hung up because they didn’t want to talk to a personal assistant 😂 Peter’s read: that’s the harness, not the model, and it’s exactly why this stuff is so hard to benchmark.Muse Spark Open - Llama is SO back (X, X, Blog, HF)In the last minutes of the show, LDJ hit us with breaking news: Meta released Muse Spark Open 20 minutes earlier. 816B total, 42B active, 1M context, multimodal in, text out. Meta calls it the most capable US open-weight model to date. I wish I had my air horn button!LDJ’s framing: about 3x smaller than Kimi K3, and the fair comparison is GLM 5.3 (753B, 40B active). You’ll need about 700GB of VRAM for NVFP4, or, per Zuck, two new M5 Ultra Mac Studios.Peter found the coding asterisk: Terminal-Bench 2.1 is 76.4 vs 83.9 for GLM 5.3 and 85 for Kimi K3. Better than the US open models, not yet at the top Chinese ones. Nisten read the license live: show “built with Muse Spark Open” in your product, and there’s a $20M annual revenue cap. His take: great for generating data, and “probably one of the best computer use ones.”Post-show breaking: Peter put Spark Open next to the earlier Spark releases, and on coding it lands closer to Spark 1.1/...
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