The debates this week told us a heap about the state of the nation and the vibe of the campaign. We discuss how Opportunity took its chance, why New Zealand First feels boxed in, and where National and Labour are getting it wrong... and what they're doing right.

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Major parties try new policies to reconnect with their bases, National re-writes its risk pitch, fiscal frustrations, & what stuck from the first leaders debate.

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The campaigns are launching and it's time to lock into politics New Zealand. Caucus returns to set the scene for Election 2026, discussing why incumbency sucks, strategic voting is controversial, and the minor parties are major players.

Election 2026

By Tim Watkin

Polls leading into the campaign proper, which kicked off this week with Parliament rising and the two major parties holding their campaign launches, have been filled with headlines about “kingmakers”. Initially, New Zealand First was given the title, as it has been so many times before. But more recently polls have showed the new kid, Opportunity, holding the balance of power.

But if we take the parties at face value, “kingmaker” is a word that no longer makes sense in 2026. The fluidity of previous election campaigns, when parties would often refuse to say who they might work with until the people had spoken, has been replaced with coalition calcification.

New Zealand First has ruled out a coalition with Labour and Labour has ruled out a coalition with New Zealand First. And they’ve done it with vehemence. Winston Peters has posted his party “won’t do a deal with Labour” because “the left are full of woke self-confessed communists”, while Chris Hipkins has said Labour won’t work with New Zealand First because of its “overt racism”. Clearly, there’s no way back into government for Peters and co without National. The question is whether that changes the way they campaign.

As for Opportunity, they are pitching themselves as “kingmakers” and say they’re happy to work with National or Labour. They’ll talk to the biggest party first, if they make it into parliament after November 7. But the current ‘king’ – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon – isn’t having a bar of it. In July he called them a party with an extreme tax policy. “We don’t want to work with them… they’re as centrist as I am an All Black”. And in case that left any doubt, he has said since “A vote for the Opportunity Party is a vote to put Chris Hipkins, Te Pati Māori, and the Greens into government… we were right to rule them out”.

So, at face value, we don’t have any kingmakers in 2026. The lines have been drawn. Everyone has chosen a side. For the first time under MMP we have two blocs – the current coalition or some combination of Labour, the Greens, Opportunity, and Te Pati Māori. Is this then the most transparent election in MMP history in terms of knowing the shape of the next government?

Except… In the Caucus podcast, which began its run through the 2026 election campaign today, RNZ Political Editor Jo Moir says Luxon’s line is “just nonsense”…

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A mood for change swept National & friends into power, so this season's final Caucus breaks down the numbers, unpacks the swing in Auckland, & looks at the coalition niceties. And the team opens their envelopes to check their predictions.

Election 2023

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - Election 2023 is done but certainly not dusted. Our 54th parliament has been chosen and National will lead a coalition government into the new term. But what has the result told us about the state of New Zealand's politics and the strengths and weaknesses of our political parties?

The Caucus team meets for one last time for this election to make sense of last weekend's results. What really happened in Auckland as it swung blue? Why is Labour on the verge of losing some bastion seats? And just who is Dan Rosewarne anyway?

Julian Wilcox, Tim Watkin, Guyon Espiner and Lisa Owen talk through the big trends of the 2023 elections and what they teach us. They discuss the impact of Covid and where Labour went wrong. How much responsibility lies at Jacinda Ardern's feet and can Chris Hipkins survive this shellacking? They also look at National's rise and how it pales in comparison to Labour's fall. How will Christopher Luxon the Chief Executive handle the move to Christopher Luxon, Prime Minister and where does New Zealand First fit in?

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Wrapping up Election 2023, there's still plenty to play for ahead of election day. We review the highs and lows of Election 2023, unpack National's 'Winston Strategy', consider the missed opportunities and pick the seats to watch.

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - What was National thinking? In Caucus this week, Guyon Espiner, Tim Watkin, Julian Wilcox and Lisa Owen look at National's decision to warn voters of a second election, saying the quiet things out loud and its overall 'Winston strategy'. Why didn't they make a call sooner to wall off New Zealand First and what price changing its position so late in the game? Or will the 'quiet Tory' effect take over in the booth?

Which seats are the ones to watch, especially as polls suggest Labour faces a tidal shift from the 2020 'red wave' that have put as many as half their electorate MPs at risk? Which MPs could be saying haere ra? And can the left bloc claw back ground in the final hours?

In this bumper final episode before the election, we also suggest issues that were under-played this campaign or missing altogether. Why weren't we talking about immigration and infrastructure with record net arrivals of 96,000 in the past year? When will New Zealand have a full-on climate election? What about superannuation and how the centre-right parties line up? And where was the grown-up conversation on co-governance and our democracy?

The team looks back over the campaign - the best and worst lines, the stand-out policies and performers and the winners and losers of Election 2023... so far.

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Grumpy voters, crimes against candidates, desperate parties, unsophisticated MMP strategies and the return of John Key. As the campaign peaks, so does the tension.

By Tim Watkin

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In Caucus this week, Julian Wilcox, Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner and Tim Watkin look at the angry mood of the campaign.

Candidates are suffering unacceptable threats from the public. So why are people so fractious? What impact are Covid, co-governance and the cost of living having on voters or are we being influenced by global trends? Parties and their proxies are also starting to lose their cool - name-calling, making up claims, turning mountains into molehills and trying some desperate pleas.

National has turned to John Key to try to persuade voters of the risks of New Zealand First, but the Caucus crew ask which voters they think he can swing. The Opportunities Party's Raf Manji has suggested a deal with National in Ilam. National quickly rejected it, but did National miss a trick months ago when it put all its eggs in the National/ACT basket?

We look back at 2020 and 2017 to gauge New Zealander's history with split-voting and how that might influence this election. And we ask whether we should be worried about threats to the independence of media, the judiciary and Pharmac.

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National's decision to form a government with New Zealand First as "as a last resort" is both a plea and a warning. What might a "cocktail" with ACT and NZF taste like? Could Luxon hold it together? And is NZF a racist party?

By Tim Watkin

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This week's Caucus looks at Christopher Luxon's landmark call to open the door to forming a government with New Zealand First and ACT. Predecessors John Key and Simon Bridges had ruled out governing with Winston Peters, saying they didn't trust him.

Former Prime Minister and coalition partner Jenny Shipley said working with Peters could be "a trainwreck". Yet Luxon has chosen another path, based on the "principle" that New Zealand needs a change of government above all else.

Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner, Julian Wilcox and Tim Watkin discuss the enigma that is Winston Peters, National's options in negotiations, New Zealand First's policies, and what's different this time with New Zealand First. Plus, they examine the week of debates - the Young Leaders, Kaupapa Maori, and Newshub Leaders events.

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Chris Hipkins needs a new song and dance routine and fast, or he could be doing the limbo and losing the next generation of Labour's leaders.

By Tim Watkin

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Analysis - Another poll, another 27 for Labour. It was July the last time one of the reputable TV company polls had Labour's poll percentage starting with a three, so the limbo question is now being asked: how low can you go?

It seems such an unlikely question because this doesn't feel like the kind of election that delivers a 27 percent major party. Usually parties crumble because of internal dissent, a tanking economy or radical reform.

Labour has been cautious in its reforms; many of its supporters say too cautious. The economy's sub-par, but take away the partisan politics and it's pretty clear that's the result of war in Europe, global inflation, China's woes and paying off the costs of a pandemic either major party in government would have accrued. (Before you argue, look at how a National government responded to the global financial crisis and Christchurch earthquakes). Inflation is falling, we were never in a recession, the credit agencies are giving us AAAs, and unemployment has stayed low. What's more, Labour has united behind Chris Hipkins and backed him to run this campaign as he wants. There's none of the back-biting and dysfunction of the Shearer/Cunliffe/Little years.

Yet as we discuss on this week's Caucus podcast, voters this far into the campaign are proving unwilling to take another look at Labour. They've done their Covid time; seen the failings of KiwiBuild, light rail and the rest; tsked at Cabinet ministers behaving badly; wept at the price of kumara and so far been unwilling to reconsider this government.

The right bloc of National and ACT is holding around 47-49 percent. It's tight when it comes to whether they will need New Zealand First to have a majority - a nightmare scenario for any major party trying to govern with less than 40 percent support, as Guyon Espiner says - but it mirrors the results John Key and various ACT leaders delivered through three elections. Things are looking good for the right.

What's perhaps yet under-appreciated is the disaster a 27 percent result would be for Labour and its future. If we assume Labour will hold 30 seats (the assumption being it loses it red wave wins of 2020 and maybe one or two more), then 27 percent and New Zealand First in Parliament would give Labour just four list MPs. …

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