Is it category fraud? The Golden Globes just rejected Michael's musical/comedy submission, and Obsession got through. We rule on it.

Dylan and Craig play Fraud or Fair across Golden Globes history: Walk the Line, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Martian, Get Out, The Substance and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. They then rule on Michael and Obsession. They also cover the Netflix firings, Cliff Booth, Zendaya for Dune III, You Can See Everything's Best Picture buzz, and a Halloween history of horror at the Oscars from The Exorcist to Sinners.

"The Golden Globes Are Rigged": https://youtu.be/zAhB_upf1rs

Tell us your own fraud calls in the comments.

Chapters:

0:00 Intro

1:48 Netflix and awards news

18:34 Golden Globes category controversy

21:40 Fraud or fair rulings

36:21 History of horror at the Oscars

With festival season behind us, it’s time to check the receipts.

This week on Oscars Outsider, Craig and Dylan revisit some of their earliest predictions for the 2027 Oscar race. Which calls have aged surprisingly well — and which ones are looking increasingly difficult to defend? We reassess our early reads on films and performances including Fjord, The Social Reckoning, Artificial, Fatherland and more.

Then we turn to Best Visual Effects, looking back at the history of the category before predicting this year’s five nominees. Are Dune: Part Three, The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary already locks? Could Godzilla Minus Zero, Wildwood or an unexpected contender crash the lineup? And which film is actually positioned to win?

Plus: another big Oscars fantasy-draft trade, Netflix’s changing theatrical strategy, the increasingly serious awards push for Obsession, and our extremely measured response to the plan to release four Beatles movies at once.

Tell us which early predictions you got completely wrong — and who we’re overlooking in Best Visual Effects.

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#Oscars2027 #OscarsPredictions #AwardsSeason #BestVisualEffects #OscarsOutsider

Craig and Dylan ask one of the juiciest questions of awards season: who is going to become this year’s Oscar villain?What actually makes a movie the villain of an awards race? We look back at some notorious examples — The Greatest Show on Earth, Crash, La La Land, and Green Book — and examine how politics, frontrunner fatigue, backlash, and the movie positioned as the “hero” can completely reshape an Oscar season.Then we turn to 2027. Could Fjord become the political lightning rod? Is I Play Rocky the kind of broad, backward-looking crowd-pleaser that awards watchers eventually turn on? Could Michael, Obsession, or even Toy Story 5 become the movie everyone is desperate to see lose?Plus: immediate changes to our Oscars Fantasy Draft, Artificial surging after New York, The Social Reckoning stumbling, Digger fading, and which films came out of NYFF looking stronger — or much weaker.Who do you think will be the villain of this awards season?#Oscars2027 #OscarsPredictions #AwardsSeason #OscarsOutsider

It's DRAFT DAY on Oscars Outsider!

Craig and Dylan go head-to-head in our second annual Oscars Fantasy Draft, selecting 26 films they think will dominate the 2027 Academy Awards and the awards season leading up to them.

With *The Odyssey* looking like the obvious first overall pick, is there any strategy that can beat Christopher Nolan's epic? And how much should we be willing to gamble on films like *Dune: Part Three*, *Project Hail Mary*, and *I Play Rocky*?

Plus, we dig into the disastrous opening of *Digger*, debate whether Tom Cruise still has a shot at an Oscar nomination, and discuss what the Warner Bros. shake-up could mean for the future of ambitious studio filmmaking.

There are risky picks, an actual draft-day trade, some immediate regrets, and a few movies we might already be betting against.

**Follow the draft all season long:** https://oscarsoutsider.com

Who has the stronger roster? What did we draft way too early? And which movie did we foolishly leave on the board?

Let us know in the comments!

#Oscars2027 #OscarsPredictions #TheOdyssey #Dune3 #OscarsOutsider

The Oscar race keeps getting messier. We break down the first reactions to Digger, the New York Film Festival relaunch of Paper Tiger, the growing momentum behind I Play Rocky, and the latest category-placement news around The Odyssey. Then we dive into what may be the most controversial Oscar category: Best Documentary.

We make our early documentary predictions and get into NAZA, Musk, 14th, You Can See Everything, The History of Concrete, Once Upon a Time in Harlem and more — plus the bizarre history of a category where Academy voters once reportedly used flashlights to signal when they wanted a movie eliminated.

And before we wrap up, we preview next week’s Oscars Outsider fantasy draft and some of the rule changes we’re making for year two.

The fall festival season is starting to reshape the Oscar race.We break down the surprising end of the Venice Film Festival, where Woman Unknown pulled off an unexpected Golden Lion win, before turning to one of the biggest questions coming out of Telluride and TIFF: is Fjord suddenly in trouble? After winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes, its North American reception has been much more divided—and the backlash could matter when awards season gets serious.We also get into the huge TIFF response to I Play Rocky, whether it could become this year’s crowd-pleasing Best Picture contender, the growing buzz around Artificial, Netflix finally giving some of its awards movies real theatrical windows, France’s latest International Feature dilemma, and some increasingly wild Oscar predictions.Oscars Outsider looks at the awards race, film festivals, Hollywood, and Oscar history from slightly outside the usual consensus.Subscribe for weekly Oscar predictions, reactions, and film history.I’d use “Is Fjord Starting to Fall?” rather than repeating “Is Fjord in Trouble?” verbatim—the thumbnail and title reinforce each other without saying exactly the same thing.

The Best International Feature Film Oscar is the most chaotic, politically charged, and scandal-ridden category in Academy history — and Dylan, Craig, and Sean are here to prove it.

In this episode: a full history of the award from its 1948 origins to today, including the infamous 1993 Uruguay scandal (a disqualified film, a federal lawsuit, and a French co-production sitting on the same ballot), the 1967 race where The Battle of Algiers won the Golden Lion while French critics boycotted its Venice premiere and stormed out of the auditorium, and the Michael Haneke Caché controversy that rewrote the language rules forever.

Plus: how the Anatomy of a Fall debacle directly caused a sweeping new AMPAS rule — and what it means for the 2025 race. Early country submissions are in: Romania is claiming the Palme d'Or winner Fjord, Japan grabbed the Hamaguchi film All of a Sudden, South Korea went with Possible Love over Hope. And the hosts react to mid-Venice buzz on Wild Horse Nine, Robert Pattinson in Prime Time, and Nathan Fielder's surprise Elizabeth Holmes documentary from Telluride.

Films discussed: The Battle of Algiers, A Man and a Woman, Fjord, All of a Sudden, Possible Love, Wild Horse Nine, Anatomy of a Fall, Caché, Paradise Now, La Strada, A Place in the World, Close to Eden, Loves of a Blond, and more.

Chapters:

0:00 Venice & Telluride news

13:58 History of Best International Film

28:36 The 1993 Uruguay disqualification scandal

42:15 The 1967 race: Battle of Algiers vs. A Man and a Woman

1:09:28 New AMPAS rule & 2025 race submissions