LEARN MORE - https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/
YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/@GavinJGallagher

***

Oil prices and property seem unrelated. They are not.

In this episode I trace how the Iran war and oil above $100 a barrel will find its way into your wallet. It starts with the obvious first-order effects, fuel and heating bills. Then come the second-order effects most people miss, because oil and gas feed into around 500 products, from tyres and paint to fertiliser and insulation. Finally there are the third-order effects: inflation, higher interest rates, tighter mortgage approvals and developers being squeezed until projects stop being viable. That is the doom loop, and it is why people in finance are getting nervous.

First, a quick round-up of the Irish Budget. Landlords were overlooked again, capital gains tax was cut from 33% to 31%, Help to Buy went up to €35,000, a new 7% derelict property tax arrived, and Rent-a-Room relief went up to €16,000.

Then to Spain (a market I also keep an eye on) where an 87-year-old woman was carried out of her Madrid home of 70 years on a stretcher after an investment fund raised her rent from €500 to €2,650 a month. That image sparked protests in over 50 cities, a snap general election and a national strike called for 11 November. I break down the 750,000-home shortfall, 12.2% annual price growth, the proposed decrees against short-term rentals and why punishing landlords wins votes but will never deliver on the extra homes needed.

***

In this episode:

• When oil went negative in April 2020, and why the reverse is now happening
• First, second and third-order effects of high oil prices on property
• How affordability and developer margins create a supply doom loop
• Why stimulus may be off the table as government bond yields rise
• Spain's housing protests, snap election and proposed anti-landlord decrees
• Ireland vs Spain: what the supply numbers tell us
• The political risk every landlord needs to price in

***

CHAPTERS:
00:00 Intro
00:30 Irish Budget round-up: what landlords got (and didn't)
02:10 The day oil went negative
03:41 Oil above $100: why a property channel cares
04:30 First-order effects: fuel, heating, energy bills
05:23 Second-order effects: 500 uses of oil and gas
08:20 Third-order effects: inflation and interest rates
09:55 Affordability and the developer squeeze
11:39 The doom loop and recession risk
13:32 Elite Property Academy
13:55 Spain: snap election and national strike
15:30 The eviction that sparked a nation
16:38 Why Spain is angry: the supply gap
18:37 Landlords, Airbnb and the backlash
20:22 Spain's proposed emergency decrees
21:17 Why Pedro Sánchez called a snap election
23:12 Ireland vs Spain: the supply numbers
24:35 Elite Property Accelerator
24:55 Final thoughts: political risk for landlords

***

Behind the Facade is hosted by Gavin J Gallagher, a Dublin-based property investor and developer with 30 years in the Irish and international market, and first-hand experience of three property crashes.

Need some help: https://workwithgavin.com

***

Support the podcast: https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher

LEARN MORE - https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/
YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/@GavinJGallagher

***

What if owning a property has nothing to do with getting the mortgage?

My guest this week, Chris A Williams, buys houses in Virginia without applying for a new mortgage. He uses a creative financing strategy called "subject to": he takes over the seller's existing mortgage payments, takes the deed, and gets into each deal for under $20,000 all in. It won't work the same way here in Ireland, but the thinking behind it will change how you look at any deal that seems out of reach.

First, the property news. Mortgage approvals hit record levels, with almost €1.7 billion approved in August alone. Wholesale electricity prices are up 76.9% year to date, which will feed through to the property market. Construction costs are also rising, though not at 2022 levels, with asphalt the biggest mover, up 16% since January.

Chris's own story is the other half of this episode. He lost his football scholarship, had $30 in the bank, and got his real estate licence a week before COVID shut the world down. His first year produced two sales and $12,000, and he sold every share of Tesla stock he owned to pay his bills. By 26, his brokerage team had done $58 million in sales. The lesson I took from him is the one I give my own clients: it is never a lack of resources, it is a lack of resourcefulness.

For Irish and UK listeners: subject to, as Chris describes it, does not transfer to Ireland or the UK. Here the lender's charge is cleared on sale, and taking over payments without lender consent breaches the mortgage terms. In the outro I cover what does transfer: finding the seller with a problem, structuring a solution others can't, and buying right on day one.

CONNECT WITH CHRIS
@IamChrisAWilliams on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook

***

In this episode:

• How subject to deals work, and the due-on-sale grey area
• Why banks never advertise this strategy
• Who sells on these terms, from low-equity sellers to military families on 0% down loans
• Wholesaling explained: locking up a contract at $100K and assigning it for $150K
• The max allowable offer formula flippers use to protect their margin
• The daily texting habit that turned a dead first year into a pipeline
• Why subject to doesn't transfer to Ireland, and what does

***

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Intro
00:23 Property news: mortgage approvals, energy and build costs
02:39 Meet Chris A Williams
03:36 Lost scholarship, $30 in the bank
06:15 Passing the real estate exam
08:31 Starting out during COVID
10:25 Year one: two sales and $12K
12:24 Bulk texting: four leads in one day
14:33 Selling Tesla stock to survive
16:21 Building a brokerage and team
19:47 The Navy SEALs team model
20:57 Elite Property Academy
21:31 First deal: buying subject to
22:39 The due-on-sale grey area
25:13 Why banks don't advertise subject to
25:54 Deal economics and the entry fee
28:02 Who sells subject to and why
31:11 The 5am routine
32:40 How $58M in sales breaks down
33:54 Wholesaling explained
37:03 The max allowable offer formula
39:26 Building on YouTube
41:02 What he'd do differently
42:27 Elite Property Accelerator
42:53 Resources vs resourcefulness

***

Behind the Facade is hosted by Gavin J Gallagher, a Dublin-based property investor and developer with 30 years in the Irish and international market, and first-hand experience of three property crashes.

Need some help: https://workwithgavin.com

***

Support the podcast: https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher

Is now a good time to buy property? It's the question Gavin gets more than any other, so in this episode he answers it properly.

Using the market clock, he shows where sentiment actually sits (almost everyone says 11pm) and why "peak of the market" means nothing until you ask "peak of what?" Residential, office, industrial, data centres, hotels and medical are all moving differently.

From there he breaks down the three forces that decide where prices go next: the bond market and rising interest rates, the AI bubble and whether it bursts like the dotcom crash, and the 18-year property cycle that points to 2026 as the top. He explains why Ireland is more exposed than most, with around 300,000 people employed by US tech firms concentrated around Dublin.

He also covers what it means on the ground: the landlord exodus of roughly 11,000 rentals in six months, 209 applicants for a single house in Ranelagh, and why the smartest move in any market is to stay active rather than sit on your hands.

The takeaway: the market is cyclical, there is no bad market, only a bad strategy.

***

Chapters

00:00 The market clock: where are we?
00:48 Why sentiment says 11pm
01:40 Peak of what? The segments that matter
02:33 Housing affordability and bidding wars
03:28 A client's cash flow deal: €40k cost, €150k income
05:02 What's really driving the market
06:00 The bond market and interest rates
06:51 The gambler vs the analyst
08:44 Government debt and the crisis on the horizon
09:37 Global rates at multi-decade highs
10:15 The AI bubble: hype vs risk
12:17 Why Ireland is exposed
13:22 The 18-year property cycle
15:40 Why 2026 could be the top
18:27 The dotcom lesson
19:26 Should you buy now?
21:46 The landlord exodus
22:46 209 applicants for one house
24:32 Buffett: fear, greed and opportunity
25:54 Final advice: stay in the game

Elite Property Accelerator is open for its next intake. Learn more: https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/

Join my next Workshop: https://elitepropertyaccelerator.com/workshop

***

Behind the Facade is hosted by Gavin J Gallagher, a Dublin-based property investor and developer with 30 years in the Irish and international market, and first-hand experience of three property crashes.

***

Support the podcast: https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher

My father died in November 1993. When we finally opened the pile of post he had left behind, one letter showed the interest rate on the family home mortgage. It was 16%.

In this episode I build what I am calling the Interest Rate Ladder. Every rung of ECB policy since the bank was created in 1999, priced against the same loan so you can see exactly what each rate does to a real monthly payment. The loan: €300,000, 25-year term, tracker at ECB plus 1%.

We start where we are now, at a main refinancing rate of 2.4% and a payment of €1,486 a month. Then we climb down through the cutting cycles, the Troika years, the NAMA fire sales, six straight years at zero, and the negative deposit rate era when savers were paying banks to hold their money. Then we climb back up through 2006, through the point where development appraisals stop working, through Trichet's 4.25% hike two months before Lehman collapsed, to the ECB's all-time high of 4.75%.

Then we go further back than the ECB exists. Irish Central Bank rates in the early 1990s, overnight rates that briefly touched 100% during the currency crisis, and a 12% mortgage that would cost €3,160 a month on the same loan. Then Volcker's 20% at the Fed, and three centuries of Bank of England history including Black Wednesday.

The swing from the ECB's lowest rate to its highest is 1.7x on your monthly payment. At the Bank of England it is 4x. At the Fed it is 4.5x. We have not seen desperate times.

The practical takeaway is at the end. Stress test every deal at 2% above the rate you are being offered. If it does not survive that, do not do the deal.

I have spent roughly 30 years in property across Ireland, Spain and Dubai. I lost a portfolio in 2008 and rebuilt from nothing, which is why rate history is not an academic subject for me.

If you want the frameworks I use to underwrite and stress test deals properly, that is what we work through inside the Elite Property Accelerator: elitepropertyaccelerator.com

REGISTER FOR WORKSHOP - https://elitepropertyaccelerator.com/workshop-registration

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BTF Episode: 276. Irish Property News Roundup for Week Ending 12.06.26

All the news impacting the Irish property market in one place.

If you enjoyed this episode please leave a review!

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Support for the podcast:

Buy me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher

Learn more about my Accelerator: https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/

LEARN MORE 👉🏼 https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/

***

BTF Episode: 275. From Six-Pack to Seven Figures with Rob Lipsett

Rob Lipsett has built Ireland's biggest fitness brand from his iPhone 5 and a few hours of grind after a 9-to-5. But this conversation isn't about health and fitness, it's about what comes after you've built your audience.

We sat down in Marbella to talk business, property, and what it really takes to turn a personal brand into a long-term asset. Rob is one of the sharpest operator-creators I've come across — and his journey from college dropout to Villa Lipsett has lessons that go far beyond the fitness industry.

We cover:

• How he built and monetised his brand from zero
• What most influencers get wrong about business
• His approach to property and long-term wealth
• The mindset shift from creator to entrepreneur
• Why Marbella — and what the lifestyle actually costs

This is a different episode. If you're building a brand, a business, or both — this one's for you.

***

Support the podcast:
https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher

LEARN MORE 👉🏼 https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/

***

BTF Episode: 274. Is the 5x Income Mortgage a Dangerous Sign?

Ireland's mortgage market is shifting again, with Nua Money now offering up to 5x income borrowing. In this episode, we break down the history of Ireland's lending rules and explore the potentially dangerous second-order effects of expanded credit colliding with rising construction costs and housing shortages.

If you enjoyed this episode please leave a review!

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Support the channel:
https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher