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The biggest downturn in 40 years has quietly begun - and 93% of Australian suburbs are already falling.

So I sat down with Tim Lawless, one of the most respected property analysts in the country, who's been reading the market day in, day out for over 20 years.

Here's what we uncovered:

→ 93% of capital city suburbs fell over winter - and we're only 5 months in. The market's already down ~5% in the capitals from its March peak.

→ It's not policy that pumped prices for decades. It's debt. Australians now hold most of their wealth - and most of their debt - in housing. That makes every rate move brutal.

→ First home buyers are already in negative equity. The 5% deposit guarantee pushed prices up at the cheap end of the market, then the market turned.

→ The policies "helping" you buy are making it worse. Deposit guarantees, first home buyer grants, stamp duty concessions - Tim calls them counterproductive.

→ Why your home may not double in 10 years anymore. The old rule of thumb is dead. With negative gearing changes, less investor money, and lower turnover, he breaks down why housing will likely still beat inflation - but the easy capital gains era is over.

→ The May 12th budget changed the game. Negative gearing and CGT reform pushed through. Investor applications already down ~30%.

Whether you own, rent, or are trying to break in - this is the clearest, most honest hour on Australian property you'll hear all year.

Sit back and enjoy.

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