Could Britain be only a decade away from losing control of its debt? An expert on macroeconomics and geopolitics, Alastair Irvine warns that the UK’s finances are “bad and getting worse” and explains why he believes World War III has effectively already begun.

Alastair Irvine is Investment Director of the Jupiter Merlin Portfolios, where he has spent the past decade analysing the global economic, political and geopolitical developments affecting financial markets.

In this conversation, he explains:

■ Why the UK’s debt trajectory could become uncontrollable between 2036 and 2046

■ How UK government debt could reach 300% of GDP by 2076 if its current trajectory continues

■ The four most dangerous things a prime minister could do to the British economy

■ Why Britain may need a £100 billion national defence loan

■ Why he believes World War III has effectively already started

■ How consumer prices have risen by approximately 30% since the beginning of 2021

■ Why Japan’s economic reforms have created a major opportunity for global investors

(00:00:00) Intro (00:02:31) How Bad Are the UK’s Finances? (00:05:47) When Could Britain Lose Control of Its Debt?(00:07:38) Can Andy Burnham’s New Cabinet Turn Britain Around? (00:08:28) Which Cabinet Appointment Offers the Most Hope? (00:10:53) Is Britain Heading for a “Red October”? (00:12:26) How Can Britain Raise Living Standards? (00:15:44) The Four Most Dangerous Threats to the British Economy (00:16:25) Should Britain Reopen the North Sea Oil and Gas Fields? (00:18:42) How Norway Built a $2 Trillion Sovereign Wealth Fund (00:21:08) Why Is Kemi Badenoch More Popular Than Her Party? (00:22:56) Should Britain Give Its New Prime Minister a Chance? (00:26:18) How Can Britain Afford to Rebuild Its Armed Forces? (00:33:54) Could a £100 Billion Defence Loan Protect Britain? (00:37:55) Has World War III Already Begun? (00:40:56) What Happens When Putin’s Popularity Falls?(00:43:47) How Extreme Is Iran’s Revolutionary Guard?(00:47:41) How Trump’s Iran Strategy Backfired? (00:50:24) Could Saudi Arabia Become a Nuclear Power?(00:54:32) Where Is Inflation Heading Over the Next 30 Years?(00:58:06) Why Official Inflation Doesn’t Match the Cost of Living (01:00:05) What Can the Price of Skittles Tell Us About Inflation?(01:01:05) Why Is the US Economy Growing Faster Than the UK? (01:03:37) Why Are Japan’s Economy and Stock Market Thriving? (01:08:34) Why Warren Buffett Is Investing in Japan (01:07:45) Disclaimer

For more of Alastair’s analysis on global markets, economics and geopolitics, follow him on Substack.

Follow Alastair:

Substack - https://substack.com/@alastairchirvine

Is value investing making a comeback? Jack Barrat shares his perspective on why today’s market environment may present compelling opportunities, how AI is transforming fund management, and why some of the most interesting investments are often overlooked.

Jack Barrat is a portfolio manager at Man Group, with over a decade of experience applying a disciplined value investing approach across a range of market conditions, including periods of significant volatility, inflationary pressure and structural change.

He explains:

▪️ Why UK stocks remain one of the world's cheapest markets

▪️ How to distinguish between a value trap and a genuine opportunity

▪️ Why AI could present a significant productivity shift in fund management

▪️ The sectors he finds most interesting from a valuation perspective today

▪️ How his team approaches high-conviction buy and sell decisions

(00:00) Intro

(00:47) From a Starbucks to Man GLG

(01:44) The Advantage of Man Group

(02:33) Building a High-Performing Investment Team

(04:37) The Toughest Year of Jack's Career

(05:06) Why He Runs Long & Short

(05:52) What Really Drives a Fund Manager

(07:18) Jack's Investment Philosophy

(09:14) Value Trap or Opportunity?

(12:09) How AI is Changing Fund Management

(17:43) "Please Don't be Afraid of AI"

(20:34) Is the UK Market Cheap?

(23:25) How the Team Makes the Call

(25:26) Jack's Definition of Risk

(27:02) The Biggest Risk to the Strategy

(31:09) Why Good |Management Takes Years to Matter

(33:32) The "Bathtub of Knowledge"

(37:31) What Keeps Him Awake at Night

(38:29) Three Books That Shaped How he Invests

(40:27) Inside a 5am Start

(43:07) The Team Behind the Fund

(45:21) Disclaimer

Recorded On: 27/04/26

Every investor is being told the same story: the money is in AI, US technology and the trade that has worked for the last fifteen years. Hugh Yarrow believes the biggest opportunity is somewhere very different. He explains why some of Britain's highest-quality businesses are trading at their cheapest valuations since the Global Financial Crisis, why compounding beats chasing trends, and why the best way to build wealth is to get rich slowly.

Hugh Yarrow is the co-founder of Evenlode Investment and lead Portfolio Manager of the Evenlode Income fund. He has run the same investment strategy since launching the fund in October 2009, investing in high-quality British market leaders with durable competitive advantages and holding them for the long term.

He explains:

▪️ Why he calls it a "get rich slowly" strategy

▪️ Why quality UK companies are trading at their cheapest valuations since 2009

▪️ Why most of his portfolio could double over the next five years

▪️ Why the companies labelled "AI losers" could actually be AI underdogs

▪️ Why he won't own banks, oil producers or mining companies

▪️ How he identifies businesses that can compound for decades

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:02:34) The "Get Rich Slowly" Investment Strategy

(00:05:43) How Hugh Builds a Winning Portfolio (00:09:19) Why Quality Investing Is Back in Favour (00:13:46) The DNA of a Great Business

(00:17:37) How to Build a Low-Risk, High-Return Portfolio

(00:20:25) The Power of Compounding Explained (00:21:41) How Many Stocks Do You Actually Need? (00:24:05) The Sectors He Won’t Invest In

(00:25:44) How Big Can The Strategy Get Before It Breaks?

(00:26:32) Margin Of Safety, And What Happens When He Gets One Wrong

(00:30:06) How To Avoid Groupthink And Over-Processing

(00:33:41) What The Portfolio Is Trading On Today

(00:34:08) Why Free Cash Flow Tells You More Than Profit

(00:37:57) Dividends, Payout Ratios And The UK Buyback Boom

(00:41:06) Are Companies Buying Back Shares At The Right Price?

(00:42:52) Would Warren Buffett Invest in This Fund?

(00:44:24) What Higher Interest Rates Did To Quality Companies

(00:47:52) Could Most of These Companies Double?

(00:49:55) Why Foreign Investors Are Buying UK Companies

(00:51:33) Are Value Investors Finally Coming Back? (00:52:32) The AI "Underdogs" Everyone Is Ignoring

(00:56:19) Is The AI Trade Sucking Liquidity Out Of Markets?

(00:58:45) Why The Business Model Matters More Than The CEO

(00:59:58) Halma: The Hidden Champion Of The UK Market

(01:02:36) Howden Joinery: Built For The White Van Man

(01:05:05) RELX And The Power Of Ploughing Money Back In

(01:06:27) How Much of the Portfolio Depends on the Economy?

(01:11:04) What's On The Watch List

(01:12:47) What Success Looks Like In Ten Years

(01:13:54) The Person Who Shaped Hugh's Investing Career

(01:15:24) The Three Things He Wants Investors To Remember

(01:16:28) Disclaimer

Connect with Hugh Yarrow: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/hugh-yarrow-13189482/

Learn more about the Evenlode Income Fund: Website - https://evenlodeinvestment.com/our-strategies/ifsl-evenlode-income-fund/

Recorded on: 08/06/2026