Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.

This brief explains how the local bearish regime shifted to a bullish one and why the current move appears confirmed.

We examine what powered the daily move: aggressive market buying or the forced closing of short positions.

The market has remained in unrealized loss territory for six weeks. STH moved underwater first and were also the first to begin recovering, while the aggregate Adjusted NUPL and LTH readings reached their lows later. All three metrics have now converged near -0.13 and are recovering in sync.

The price decline is accompanied by a sustained reduction in open interest and a weakening pressure index. At this point, it looks more like positions are being closed and excess leverage is being flushed out than a structural move lower. But buying momentum has weakened noticeably.

Buying pressure is once again outweighing selling pressure at the lows, repeating the February pattern, while price is holding near the Cost Basis of the freshest holders. The logic of this brief is simple: compressed selling pressure and price positioning in the lower part of the cohort range point to an accumulation zone.

This brief explains why initiative in futures still remains with sellers despite a local rebound attempt. Cumulative buy delta is shrinking quickly, and any spike in demand is immediately absorbed. That confirms local weakness in buyer flow.

A brief on how stablecoin inflows - the main fuel of the crypto market - have dried up over the past two months. The logic is simple: without fresh dollar liquidity, BTC rebounds stay short-lived and downside pressure remains in place.