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Ninety days ago we made ten fintech predictions on this podcast for 2026. Today we graded them in public. Four have already played out fully. Three are directionally correct. One is spectacularly wrong. One is still waiting on a phone call from Ben and David at Acquired.

This is the Q1 2026 fintech scorecard, recorded at the quarter-pole of the season. Mastercard's $1.8 billion acquisition of BVNK and Visa Direct's $3.5 billion in annualised stablecoin settlement volume closed out the card networks' capitulation to stablecoins. The OpenAI-Microsoft partnership restructured through a $250 billion Azure commitment and effective compute autonomy for OpenAI. Compute nationalism went mainstream, with sovereign cloud tracking towards $80 billion in 2026. And the Ive-Altman hardware prototype leaked to reviews that, politely, read as paperweight.

Aman Narain and Zubin Vandrevala break down all ten fintech predictions: the four on the podium, the three directionally correct, the one spectacularly wrong (JPMorgan-Nubank), and the one still pending. They diagnose why the misses happened, and publish the Q2 to Q4 watchlist: stablecoin integration speed, agentic liability, Nubank's US charter, and the PayPal endgame.

Key takeaways:
1. Mastercard's $1.8 billion BVNK acquisition and Visa Direct's $3.5 billion in annualised stablecoin volume confirm the card networks have stopped fighting stablecoins and started operating them.
2. The OpenAI-Microsoft restructuring, a $250 billion Azure commitment paired with compute autonomy for OpenAI, is a conscious uncoupling dressed as a partnership renewal.
3. The UK Competition and Markets Authority made businesses fully liable for their AI agents' actions, building the legal framework for agentic commerce through liability rather than licensing.
4. The fintech predictions that paid off were structural reads of institutional behaviour. The one that missed mistook a neat story for the system's actual logic.
5. GPU clusters are now held by sovereign states the way central banks once held gold, with sovereign cloud spending tracking towards $80 billion in 2026.

Topics covered:
- The four podium finishes: Visa and Mastercard on-chain, compute nationalism, the OpenAI-Microsoft divorce, the Ive-Altman paperweight
- The directional hits: the CUDA killer through open standards, AI-agent liability in the UK, the Q-Day quantum scare, AI in F1
- The dead-wrong call: JPMorgan-Nubank, and why the symmetric story was the wrong one
- The reverse-merger trend: neobanks buying distressed regional banks for the licence and the deposits
- The Q2 to Q4 fintech watchlist: corporate treasurers on stablecoins, global agentic liability, Nubank's US charter, the PayPal endgame
- The pattern beneath the scorecard: why structural reads beat narrative reads, and how to tell the difference

Chapters:
Referenced in this episode: Season 1 finale predictions (December 2025); Mastercard / BVNK definitive agreement (March 2026); Visa Direct stablecoin settlement volumes; Gartner sovereign cloud forecast; OpenAI / Microsoft restructured partnership and $250 billion Azure commitment; Huawei Ascend 950PR and Atlas 350; Google OpenXLA; UK Competition and Markets Authority AI-agent guidance; Q1 post-quantum cryptography research reducing qubit requirements for RSA-2048 from 20 million to under 1 million; Mercedes x Microsoft F1 AI partnership; Red Bull x Oracle AI strategy agent; JPMorgan Q1 commentary; Acquired with Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal.

Related episodes: the Season 1 finale predictions; the Mastercard-BVNK deep dive; The Purple Revolution on Nubank; the PayPal endgame.

Hosted by:
Creators & Guests

• Aman Narain - Host
• Zubin Vandrevala - Host

Enjoying A2Z Fintech? Leave a rating and review on Apple Podcasts. It is the single biggest signal to the Apple algorithm and how new listeners in our world find us.

For information and entertainment only. Not financial advice.

Transcript:
Click here to view the episode transcript.

Click here to watch a video of this episode.

Mastercard paid $1.8 billion for BVNK, the largest stablecoin acquisition in history. Four months earlier, Coinbase walked away from a $2 billion deal for the same company. What changed, and what it means for Visa, Amex, Capital One, JPMorgan, and Circle.

On Tuesday 17 March, Mastercard announced a definitive agreement to acquire BVNK, the UK-based stablecoin infrastructure company, for up to $1.8 billion. It is the largest stablecoin acquisition in history, eclipsing Stripe's $1.1 billion purchase of Bridge. The twist: just four months earlier, Coinbase walked away from a $2 billion deal for the same asset.

Aman Narain and Zubin Vandrevala break down why Coinbase folded, what Mastercard saw that Coinbase didn't, and what this transaction tells us about the future of card networks, cross-border payments, and the unbundling of financial infrastructure.

Topics covered:
- The deal mechanics: $1.5B fixed, $300M contingent earn-out
- Why Coinbase walked at a 50x revenue multiple
- The Stripe-Bridge precedent that made this inevitable
- Visa's uncomfortable position as investor in an acquired competitor
- Capital One's stealth assembly of a full-stack stablecoin platform via Discover and Brex
- JPMorgan's deposit-token counter-strategy with JPM Coin
- Circle, Paxos, and the shrinking pool of independent infrastructure targets
- Why this isn't a stablecoin story. It's a payments story.

Chapters:

• (00:00) - Cold open: Dee Hock, Seattle, 1966
• (00:53) - A $1.8 billion declaration of war
• (01:34) - Singapore to the Bay Area via Las Vegas
• (02:15) - India's six-minute convenience revolution
• (03:55) - Why stablecoins are the cross-border UPI
• (04:53) - Disclaimer
• (05:25) - Laying out the hand: the deal mechanics
• (05:50) - Coinbase's $2 billion walkaway
• (08:06) - The 50x revenue multiple that scared Coinbase
• (09:15) - Why Mastercard played a different game
• (10:11) - Deal architecture: the $300M earn-out
• (12:16) - The Stripe-Bridge effect
• (14:02) - Visa's uncomfortable position
• (15:19) - Going around the table: Visa
• (16:37) - American Express: the quiet one
• (17:30) - Capital One's stealth move via Discover and Brex
• (18:33) - JPMorgan, JPM Coin, and the deposit token play
• (19:40) - Coinbase, Circle, Paxos: the crypto-native fallout
• (22:25) - The unbundling of the card network
• (23:28) - When infrastructure becomes invisible
• (24:22) - Who owns the relationship sits on top of the pipes
• (25:30) - Closing wagers: stablecoin story or payments story?

Hosted by:

Creators & Guests

• Aman Narain - Host
• Zubin Vandrevala - Host

For information and entertainment only. Not financial advice.

Transcript:

Click here to view the episode transcript.

India has 100 million diabetics. 47% of the population is overweight. And we are the most wellness-educated generation in history. That's the paradox.

Sumaya Dalmia has been transforming bodies and building businesses since 1997 — before fitness was even an industry in India. She's Vogue's Celebrity Trainer of the Year, WEF's Entrepreneur of the Decade in Health & Wellness, and the architect of a 7-pillar framework that changed how Aman manages his own health.

The Sumaya 7: Eat. Move. Train. Sleep. Measure. Recover. Repeat.

In this episode we cover:

• Sumaya's origin story — from overweight kid to javelin thrower to celebrity trainer
• Training the Indian cricket team under Andrew Leapers alongside Sachin Tendulkar
• Scaling a gym empire from 1 to 10 locations
• India's slow-motion health pandemic: diabetes, carb culture, and the wellness paradox
• The Sumaya 7 framework — pillar by pillar
• Wearable tech: Whoop, CGM monitors, Garmin, Oura Ring
• Uploading 13 years of blood reports into Claude AI
• GLP-1 drugs going generic in India: Mounjaro, Ozempic, and what it means
• Why AI is your best nutritional adviser but will never replace your trainer

Books mentioned:

• Outlive by Peter Attia
• Glucose Revolution by Jessie Inchauspé (The Glucose Goddess)

⚕️ The views shared in this episode are personal reflections. Nothing discussed constitutes medical advice. Consult a qualified professional before making changes to your health, diet, or medication. No sponsorships or affiliations.

Connect:

• Sumaya Dalmia: @SumayaDalmia (https://instagram.com/sumayadalmia)
• Aman Narain: @amanwhosnaps (https://www.instagram.com/amanwhosnaps/)
• Newsletter: AMWB on Substack https://amanwhoblogs.substack.com/
• Watch the video: YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@A2ZFINTECH)

In the age of AI, stock trading is still writing cheques.
That changed this week.

On March 9, 2026, Nasdaq partnered with crypto exchange Kraken
to build the Equities Transformation Gateway — tokenized
equities trading 24/7, settling in seconds, instant, fractional,
and always on. Four days earlier, NYSE's parent Intercontinental
Exchange invested in OKX at a $25 billion valuation with the
same intent.

Two of the most powerful financial exchanges on earth. Same week.
Same bet. That is not a trend. That is a verdict.

In this episode, Aman breaks down:

→ Why the stock market is the last analogue institution in a
digital world
→ Why the ASX's $250M blockchain project failed in 2022 — and
why Nasdaq's approach won't repeat it
→ How this is structurally different from Robinhood fractional
shares
→ Why Kraken's Federal Reserve master account changes everything
→ Stablecoins, the GENIUS Act, and the hidden infrastructure
layer beneath it all
→ Three things to watch before mid-2027 — and why financial
journalists are missing the bigger story

This is a solo episode. Co-host Zubin Vandrevala is in New
Zealand. He couldn't wait.

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📖 COMPANION BLOG
A Man Who Blogs #32 — Chains, Clocks & Capital
[SUBSTACK URL]

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Creators & Guests

• Aman Narain - Host

The Schroder family survived Napoleon, two World Wars, the fall of merchant banking, and the rise of passive investing. On February 12, 2026, they said "cash me out" — agreeing to sell their 222-year-old firm to Nuveen (TIAA) for £9.9 billion.

The Financial Times called it "the defining deal of a glass half-empty UK." Philip Augar, who worked at Schroders in the 1990s and wrote The Death of Gentlemanly Capitalism, says history is repeating itself — just as the City's merchant banks fell to Wall Street in the 1990s, active fund management at scale is becoming a US-dominated industry. John Gapper calls it the end of the City's émigré alchemy — the era when German-born banking families drove London's financial growth.

In this Quick Dive, Aman Narain and Manu George — both former Schroders insiders — perform an autopsy on one of the last great family-controlled financial dynasties. They trace the firm through four CEOs (Bischoff, Dobson, Harrison, Oldfield), examine why the wealth management and alternatives pivots fell short, and ask the question the entire industry is avoiding:

Is this the end of the mid-sized active asset manager?

KEY TOPICS:

• The Schroders-Nuveen deal: £9.9bn, 34% premium, Q4 2026 close
• 222 years of family control: from Napoleonic-era merchant banking to algorithmic allocation
• Four CEO eras: The Transformer, The Architect, The Great Hope, The Accountant
• Bruno Schroder's Christmas party and the painting that said everything
• London's "Wimbledon effect": hosting the game but no longer owning the players
• The Death of Gentlemanly Capitalism, Part II: from merchant banks to asset managers
• The passive revolution: how BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street reshaped the landscape
• Why no auction? Oldfield didn't shop the company and Evelyn Partners got 50% more on EV/EBITDA
• Why Schroders' wealth and alternatives pivots were too late
• The last family-controlled financial dynasties: Rothschild, Lazard, Lombard Odier, Pictet
• Nuveen and TIAA: the quiet $2.5 trillion empire
• The triple threat: index-tracking, private markets, and AI
• The "Telco Trap" for active managers
• What happens to talent, culture, and clients in the next 18 months

DEAL FACTS:

• Deal value: £9.9bn (~$12.8bn) — valued at 16x forecast earnings vs 12.3x for European peers
• Cash offer: 590p/share + up to 22p permitted dividends
• Premium: 34% to last close; 61% to 12-month VWAP
• Analyst consensus target pre-deal: just £4.50/share
• Schroder family payout: ~£4.06bn (41% stake)
• Combined AUM: ~$2.5 trillion
• Expected close: Q4 2026

THE FT'S VERDICT:

• Lex: "Ending its listed life with a whimper rather than a bang."
• Philip Augar: "Wrenching but inevitable... just another brick in the wall."
• John Gapper: "The end of the City's émigré alchemy."

GUEST: Manu George — 25-year asset management veteran, former Senior Investment Director at Schroders (2007–2020), currently Credit Strategist at Polen Capital.

HOST: Aman Narain — Founder, A2Z Advisors | Co-Host, A2Z Fintech Podcast | 25+ years across Google, HSBC, Standard Chartered, Schroders, BankBazaar.

CONNECT:
🔗 A2Z Fintech on YouTube: https://www.a2zfintech.com/
🔗 A Man Who Blogs (Substack): https://amanwhoblogs.substack.com/
🔗 Aman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amannarain/
🔗 Manu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/manu-george-invmgmt/

#Schroders #Nuveen #TIAA #AssetManagement #ActiveManagement #PassiveInvesting #FintechPodcast #WealthManagement #MergersAndAcquisitions #PrivateMarkets #CityOfLondon #FinancialDynasty #WimbledonEffect #DeathOfGentlemanlyCapitalism #A2ZFintech #LondonFinance #AIinFinance

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Ever wondered if banks are just giant dodos stuck in legacy land, or could they actually get hip and healthy? Well, Alastair Campbell is here to dish out the secrets of making money healthy again, minus the boring behind-the-scenes. Buckle up, it’s a juicy ride through data, archetypes, and the ultimate goal: banks that actually get you.

In this episode:

• Why 63% of industry value growth is flowing outside incumbents
• Rethinking archetypes: digital natives, modern families, and the kid pocket money revolution
• The three core levers of banking transformation: Customers, Architecture, and Leadership
• How to build a bank for the modern, complex, multi-hyphenated lives of today’s consumers
• The importance of 'stealing with pride' — reusable tech and collaborative ethos
• Why 'boring' banks are losing and what's needed to become trusted custodians of your financial life
• Leadership lessons: owning your architecture, generating customer relevance, and setting the ‘more for less’ standard

Timestamps:

00:00 - Welcome to the revolution: making money healthy again
02:37 - The data behind outside growth: non-incumbents stealing the show
04:05 - Why the balance sheet isn’t the hero anymore
06:18 - Digital wallets and multi-banking: the new normal
10:20 - The three wheels of banking transformation
12:17 - Leadership’s role in fixing the broken banking model
16:01 - Archetypes derailed: from nuclear families to digital natives
20:10 - How banks can innovate for weak signals, not just the average customer
24:00 - Money = emotions: making banking less boring, more human
28:39 - The future of customer data: credentials, relationships, and habits
32:39 - Building a modular tech stack for true customer-centricity
34:40 - The moat of convenience vs the moat of inconvenience
36:47 - Regulator’s role: pushing, pulling, and shaping the future of finance
44:23 - From wire protocols to open banking: standards that unleash innovation
46:23 - Why leadership tenure matters in successful transformation
54:22 - Empathy at the core: how young professionals can think differently
55:02 - Leading with purpose: ownership, career paths, and authentic leadership

Resources & Links:

• Healthy Money: How Modern Banks Can Create Value and Trust
• Thought Machine - Modern core banking software
• Revolut - Digital banking pioneer for the next generation
• Standard Chartered - Former employer for both host and guest
• Singtel - Singapore's leading Telco where Alastair led Strategy
• NatWest - Leading UK Bank where Alastair was Head of Strategy
• Alastair Campbell
• Richard Kibble

Connect with Alastair:

• LinkedIn

Want to overhaul your bank into a modern money machine? This convo is packed with the nuts and bolts of making that happen fast, smart, and with a lot less snooze factor. Buckle up, bankers — it’s time to get healthy!

### Links & Resources
📺 Watch this episode on YouTube

📄 Read the full transcript

### Credits & Guests
Creators & Guests

• Aman Narain - Host
• Alastair Campbell - Guest

### Chapters

The US banking fortress just got a new neighbor. NuBank—the Latin American titan with 127M+ customers—has officially announced its US National Bank License.

In this minisode, Aman and Zubin break down why this isn't just another fintech launch. We explore the "Wayne-dependent" reality of US regional banks stuck on 1980s COBOL code and why NuBank’s $1 cost-to-serve makes them a lethal competitor to the "Hollow Middle" of American finance.

Highlights include:

• The COBOL Crisis: Why US regional banks are being held hostage by 40-year-old software.
• Hard Mode Mastery: How NuBank conquered Brazil and why that makes the US market look like "Easy Mode."
• Focus vs. Breadth: Why NuBank is succeeding where Revolut is still fighting for regulatory ground.
• The Death of the Legacy Tax: What a cloud-native "siege engine" means for your wallet.

Chapters:
00:00 The Hook: COBOL vs. The Purple Glow
01:30 The Backstory: Fighting "Hard Mode" in Brazil
04:30 The US Map: Mega-Banks vs. Hollow Regionals
07:00 Secret Sauce: Why NuBank is different from Revolut
09:30 Aman’s Mic Drop: The End of the Legacy Tax
,
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