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Why is it so difficult to simply say, “I don’t know”?

In this episode of The Lemon Tree Coaching Podcast, Dr. Allison Sucamele explores the psychology behind our discomfort with uncertainty—and why someone who sounds completely confident can sometimes be more persuasive than someone who actually knows more.

From ego defenses and the Dunning-Kruger effect to metacognition, intellectual humility, and the confidence heuristic, we examine how certainty can masquerade as expertise—and why thoughtful people may actually sound less certain because they understand how complicated the truth can be.

Confidence is not knowledge. Certainty is not evidence. And sometimes, “I don’t know” may be one of the most intelligent things we can say.

🌿 The Lemon Tree Coaching Podcast — Where inner work meets everyday life.

References & Resources

Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. *Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77*(6), 1121–1134.

Fazio, L. K., Brashier, N. M., Payne, B. K., & Marsh, E. J. (2015). Knowledge does not protect against illusory truth. *Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 144*(5), 993–1002.

Udry, J., & Barber, S. J. (2024). The illusory truth effect: A review of how repetition increases belief in misinformation. *Current Opinion in Psychology, 56*, 101736.

Sah, S., Moore, D. A., & MacCoun, R. J. (2013). Cheap talk and credibility: The consequences of confidence and accuracy on advisor credibility and persuasiveness. *Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 121*(2), 246–255.

Vaughan-Johnston, T. I., Guyer, J. J., Fabrigar, L. R., Lamprinakos, G., & Briñol, P. (2026). Falling vocal intonation signals speaker confidence and conditionally boosts persuasion. *Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 52*(1), 3–21.

Books for Further Reading

Thinking, Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahneman

A broad exploration of cognitive shortcuts, biases, judgment, and decision-making.

The Scout Mindset — Julia Galef

An accessible exploration of learning to prioritize seeing reality accurately over defending what we already believe.

Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error — Kathryn Schulz

A thoughtful examination of why being wrong is so psychologically difficult—and why recognizing our fallibility matters.

Journal Prompt

Where in my life do I feel the strongest pressure to appear certain—and what might change if I allowed myself to say, “I don't know yet”?

Disclaimer: The Lemon Tree Coaching Podcast is for educational and informational purposes only and is not a substitute for therapy, diagnosis, or professional mental health care.

If you or someone you know is experiencing a mental health crisis in the U.S., call or text 988 to reach the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline. If there is immediate danger, call 911 or your local emergency services.

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