『‘He needed all of it’: How Mike Mazzei’s millions helped deliver a narrow victory』のカバーアート

‘He needed all of it’: How Mike Mazzei’s millions helped deliver a narrow victory

‘He needed all of it’: How Mike Mazzei’s millions helped deliver a narrow victory

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The Frontier spoke with pollster Pat McFerron about Mike Mazzei’s slim win over Gentner Drummond to secure the Republican nomination for governor. McFerron is president of the Oklahoma-based polling firm Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates. For the full interview, listen to our podcast.Dylan Goforth: Let's talk about what we saw last night. It's funny: There were a lot of eyes on the election, but not so many votes. Once again, turnout in an Oklahoma runoff wasn't great, but everyone was paying attention to what happened. When you look at the runoff results, what do you think Oklahoma voters told us?Pat McFerron: I think the key takeaway is a little bit of a repudiation of the Freedom Caucus. Obviously, everyone wants to talk about the governor's race, which was very, very close. I believe it's the closest Republican runoff election we've had in the state for governor.But I think the continuation last night of support for Senate Pro Tem Lonnie Paxton — and voters increasingly siding with him over the Freedom Caucus — is probably the biggest takeaway.That, and I think you hit on it a little bit, is how few people are participating. I do think the Republican runoff election exceeded some people's expectations, but you're still talking about less than 10% of Oklahoma residents participating. It's a larger percentage of voters, but we're talking about a state of 4 million people. Less than 10% decided who is likely to be the next governor of the state.Dylan: Looking at the governor's election, Mazzei won by essentially half a percentage point. Does that look like basically a coin flip, or did you see something in the results that explains why Mazzei was able to hold off Drummond, even by the slim margin that he did?Pat: If you compare the margins — if you took out the other candidates in June and looked at the margins Drummond and Mazzei had vis-à-vis each other, then looked at what happened last night — the southeastern part of the state turned out pretty solidly and really moved toward Mazzei.In McCurtain County alone, Mazzei won by a little over 2,000 votes. He picked up 779 net votes there. So he picked up more than a third of his statewide margin in McCurtain County alone.Dylan: Do you think that's the Trump endorsement? I know southeastern Oklahoma, and I don't think of Mazzei as your typical southeastern Oklahoma candidate.Pat: It is the most Trumpian. I think the Brecheen endorsement there mattered. You also had the late Markwayne Mullin endorsement. Those are the last two congressmen there.Especially in McCurtain County, which is in the Shreveport media market, they're not seeing quite as much television advertising as some of the others are. I think they rely a little more on endorsements. So, yes, I do think that's a key part of it there.Dylan: Let's talk about the money, because I think that's an interesting part of the results. There was a lot of spending. I think Mazzei took out almost $12 million in loans. The Associated Press reported more than $14 million in television and digital advertising during the runoff, with many more millions spent before that.What did Mazzei actually buy with that money?Pat: When a race is this close, any decision on financing probably makes a difference. So, yes, I would argue that he needed it all to get there.That being said, you may recall I released numbers three weeks out that had it at 44-44. I did two other surveys that I did not release that had it at 45-45, and the last survey I did, which I finished last Thursday, had it at 45-45.That makes you wonder whether the money was wasted. But if it hadn't been there, you don't know what would have happened on the other side. It looks to me like he needed all of it—or almost all of it—to be successful.Dylan: Taking out $12 million in loans is enough to give you stress. But I guess when you win by 2,000 votes, you don't look back and regret taking out those loans.Pat: The worst feeling — and I've been on campaigns that have done this before—is to say, “I should have done something else. I should have put in another $100,000, or I should have done X, Y or Z. If I'd bought broadcast television in Shreveport, maybe I would have done better in McCurtain County.” Those are the things that drive you crazy.Very seldom do I have someone say, “We paid for a landslide, and I'm upset about it.”Dylan: I love a close race because it gives you so much to think about and dwell on. When you're talking about 2,000 votes, anywhere you're picking up votes is relevant, important and probably meaningful.One thing I was thinking about last night was the polling you released before the runoff. These guys had essentially been tied for a long time. I remember seeing numbers in June, and the June election results were close.What do last night's results — and the way the last six months played out — tell you about where the supporters of the other candidates went?Pat: Obviously, it means they split rather ...
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