Can the numbers tell you when it is time to bet on a long shot?

Michael Bridgford spent his early career crunching data as an investment banking analyst at William Blair. Now he is running for Congress as an independent in what may be the tightest district in the country. Bob asks the obvious question. What did the data actually say?

They dig into the numbers behind the decision, a House margin of two votes, a district once decided by six, and a voter base where independents outnumber both parties. Along the way they get into AI reshaping finance, why Iowa ranks second in the nation for data centers, and the counterintuitive research on how long a representative should really stay.

It is a conversation about reading the odds before you act, and what the numbers reveal about a system most people feel is broken. Listen now.

• [00:01:17] From a farm in the middle of nowhere to a career in finance
• [00:02:54] A 23-year-old analyst, 100-hour weeks, and a deal that involved Warren Buffett
• [00:04:28] How AI now does in minutes what a $300,000 analyst used to do
• [00:05:56] What government owes workers as AI reshapes the economy
• [00:07:44] The state AI law that is already on the books next door
• [00:10:48] Why attention has become more valuable than money in politics
• [00:15:02] The data point on Iowa data centers that surprised even the candidate
• [00:18:43] The numbers that made a long shot look like the right bet
• [00:22:25] A district decided by six votes, and why that changes the math
• [00:33:31] The case for term limits, starting with a 10 percent approval rating
• [00:39:18] A 50-year study on congressional seniority that defies common sense
• [00:45:14] The Gallup number that says nearly half the country is up for grabs

• William Blair, the investment firm where Michael began his career
• Claude, the AI assistant referenced on automating analyst work
• Gallup, the source for the independent voter figure

Michael Bridgford grew up on a family farm near the Quad Cities and built a career in finance, starting as an investment banking analyst at William Blair before moving into investments, sales, and distribution across the country. He lived in Chicago, Texas, and California before returning to the Quad Cities area, where he lives with his family. He is now running for Congress as an independent in Iowa, his first run for public office, making the case that the numbers point to a rare opening for a candidate outside the two parties.

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Curious Data is an original production hosted by Bob Lytle. Brought to you by Centri Analytics. Production and editing by Podcast Your Brand.