検索キーワード： 予測・戦略的計画

We like to think we make decisions based on good reasoning–and that our doctors, judges, politicians, economic forecasters and employers do too. In this groundbreaking book, three world-leading behavioural scientists come together to assess the last great fault in our collective decision-making: noise. We all make bad judgements more than we think. Noise shows us what we can do to make better ones.

Rocket science is often celebrated as the ultimate triumph of technology. But it's not. Rather, it's the apex of a certain thought process—a way to imagine the unimaginable and solve the unsolvable. It's the same thought process that enabled Neil Armstrong to take his giant leap for mankind, that allows spacecraft to travel millions of miles through outer space and land on a precise spot, and that brings us closer to colonizing other planets.

For innovation and leadership guru Hal Gregersen, the power of questions has always been clear - but it took some years for the follow-on question to hit him: If so much depends on fresh questions, shouldn’t we know more about how to arrive at them? That sent him on a research quest ultimately including more than 200 interviews with creative thinkers. Questions Are the Answer delivers the insights Gregersen gained about the conditions that give rise to catalytic questions - and breakthrough insights - and how anyone can create them.

Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant new reality. But more modest endeavours, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, commonly fail. Why? Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life’s work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg. In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors that lead projects to fail, and the research-based principles that will make yours succeed.

When we think about the future, it can be difficult to feel that we have any control. We aren't confident that we can take actions and make decisions that help determine what happens next. We want to feel prepared, hopeful and equipped and to face the future with optimism. Or, better yet, change the future. But how do we map out our lives when it feels impossible to predict what the world will be like next week, let alone next year? Jane McGonigal, a renowned future forecaster, reveals that 'unimaginable' events aren't unimaginable before they happen.

既存の価値観、古い常識、全部疑ってみよう。問題設定と解決策は、すべてここからはじまる!元マイクロソフト伝説のマネジャーが新時代の働き方、生き方、ビジネススキルを提案する1冊!

For more than 40 years, The Boston Consulting Group has been shaping strategic thinking in business. The Boston Consulting Group on Strategy offers a broad and up-to-date selection of the firm's best ideas on strategy with fresh ideas, insights, and practical lessons for managers, executives, and entrepreneurs in every industry. Here's a sampling of the provocative thinking you'll find inside.

You know who your competitors are. You keep tabs on them regularly, and can list them calmly, along with their strengths and weaknesses. But your enemies are a whole other matter. They’re the haters and the doubters who said you’d never make it, the ones who stomped on your dreams. When you think about your enemies, you get emotional. You feel like you won’t let anything—or anyone—stop you.

Change is coming: Nearly everywhere in the world, people over sixty will become the dominant population. Longevity presents an opportunity for which companies need to develop a strategy. Estimates put the global market for this demographic at $21 trillion across every industry you can think of. Stage (Not Age) is the concise guide to helping companies understand and serve this burgeoning market by focusing on life stage, not age, and identifying the deep diversity of needs within the demographic.

In 2011, Tim Cook took on an impossible task - following in the footsteps of one of history's greatest business visionaries, Steve Jobs. Facing worldwide scrutiny, Cook (who was often described as shy, unassuming and unimaginative) defied all expectations. Under Cook's leadership Apple has soared: its stock has nearly tripled to become the world's first trillion-dollar company. From the massive growth of the iPhone to new victories like the Apple Watch, Cook is leading Apple to a new era of success.

In this timely and enlightening audiobook, Cal Newport introduces a philosophy for technology use that has already improved countless lives. Digital minimalists are all around us. They're the calm, happy people who can hold long conversations without furtive glances at their phones. They can have fun with friends and family and eat out at restaurants without the obsessive urge to document the experience...Now, Newport gives us a name for this quiet movement and makes a case for its urgency in our tech-saturated world.

Knowing the concepts of management accounting can have a very positive impact on your business. Through management accounting, you can create forecasts for the future, make smart buying decisions, analyze the rate of return on an investment and much more. Management accountants do a lot when it comes to the management aspect of running a business. Perhaps you are a management accountant, thinking of becoming one, or will be hiring someone who is proficient in the field. If so, this book is for you.

Blending the tactics he learned from America's elite force with lessons from the Spartans, samurai, Apache scouts, and other great warrior traditions, Mark Divine has distilled the fundamentals of success into eight powerful principles that will transform you into the leader you always knew you could be. Learn to think like a SEAL and take charge of your destiny at work, at home, and at life.

Clayton M. Christensen, the author of such business classics as The Innovator’s Dilemma and the New York Times best-seller How Will You Measure Your Life, and coauthors Efosa Ojomo and Karen Dillon reveal why so many investments in economic development fail to generate sustainable prosperity and offers a groundbreaking solution for true and lasting change.

ヒット商品より カリスマ営業マンより 一番大事なのは「会計力」!日本の中小企業の約3割は債務超過で借金漬けの状態。本業で稼ぐ力を失っている。

Clayton M. Christensen is a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School. Michael E. Raynor is a director at Deloitte Research. Together, they outline an innovative plan that urges businesses to create disruption rather than fleeing from it. Named one of 2003's Best Business Books by Business Week, this book is a Wall Street Journal and New York Times best seller.

If leaders aren't integrating their digital offerings into a philosophy of customer success, they will be defeated in the next decade because technical excellence and other traditional competitive advantages are becoming too easy to imitate. The Customer Success Economy offers examples and specifics of how companies can transform. It addresses the pains of transforming organizational charts, leadership roles, responsibilities, and strategies so the whole company works together in total service to the customer.

AI is coming fast and will affect every part of a business, including the role of the leader. And up until now, leaders have largely ceded their role in the transformation-pushing determination of strategy out to tech teams and leaving investment decisions with groups that don't have a full view of the organization. Just when responsible leadership is more imperative than ever, leaders are not stepping up to understand and execute in the new world of human-machine collaboration. A generation of AI transformation failures awaits if leaders don't connect their use of AI to their strategies.

It's your responsibility as a manager to ensure that your work—and the work of your team—aligns with the overarching objectives of your organization. But when you're faced with competing projects and limited time, it's difficult to keep strategy front of mind. How do you keep your eye on the long term amid a sea of short-term demands? The HBR Guide to Thinking Strategically provides practical advice and tips to help you see the big-picture perspective in every aspect of your daily work, from making decisions to setting team priorities to attacking your own to-do list.

In The Innovator's Solution, Clayton Christensen and Michael Raynor expand on the idea of disruption, explaining how companies can and should become disruptors themselves. Now with a foreword by innovation expert Scott Anthony, this classic work shows just how timely and relevant these ideas continue to be in today's hyper-accelerated business environment and will help anyone trying to transform their business right now.

In Fluke, myth-shattering social scientist Brian Klaas takes a deep-dive into the phenomenon of random chance and the chaos it can sow, taking aim at most people’s neat and tidy version of reality. The book’s argument is that we willfully ignore a bewildering truth: but for a few small changes, our lives—and our societies—could be radically different.

The circularity principle is present in all aspects of life, from physics to food chains. With the pressing issue of climate change and environmental degradation, a circular economy presents a solution that can balance economic growth and sustainability by minimizing waste production and conserving finite resources.

You can build a home service business that is profitable EVERY month of the year. Offseasons will keep you poor. I hate offseasons. I used to waste $100,000 every winter. I didn't know how to generate leads during the slow months. My revenue dropped. My profits went negative. I had to lay off all my employees! This book fixes that problem. This book contains the playbooks that took me from sleeping in my office closet to owning a business that generates $50,000,000+ per year. When I started my lawn care business, I had no systems. This almost cost me my life in a workplace accident.

In an ever-evolving world filled with complex challenges and intricate puzzles, the ability to think dynamically and systematically is nothing short of a superpower. "Learn To Think in Systems: Mastering the Art of Dynamic Thinking for Complex Challenges" is your indispensable guide to unleashing this superpower and navigating the intricate web of interconnections that shape our lives.

Over the next decade, all leaders will be augmented with some form of generative artificial intelligence, or GenAI. For the best leaders, this will mean dramatic improvement. For mediocre leaders, this will mean persistent confusion, distraction, and pretense. With futureback thinking—looking ten years ahead, then planning backward from future to next to now—this third edition of Leaders Make the Future shows how people can improve their leadership skills while expanding their human perspective.

The critical leadership practices - the ones that will allow a leader to make the biggest impact over time - are well established. They're about how you create a vision and inspire others to follow it. In this comprehensive handbook, strategy and change experts Ron Ashkenas and Brook Manville distill proven ideas and frameworks about leadership from Harvard Business Review, interviews with senior executives, and their own experience in the field - all to help rising leaders stand out and have a big impact.

In this Wall Street Journal bestseller, why the future of work requires the deconstruction of jobs and the reconstruction of work.

The Synergy Solution will change how companies think about and approach their M&A strategies and realize the performance promises they make to their shareholders. Beginning with a clear and well-accepted foundation of the economics of the M&A performance problem, Deloitte's Mark Sirower and Jeff Weirens show acquirers how to develop and execute an M&A strategy-end-to-end-that both avoids the pitfalls that so many companies fall into and creates real, long-term shareholder value.

Countless enterprises fall apart the moment they scale; their positive results fizzle, they lose valuable time and money and the great electric charge of potential that drove them early on disappears. In short, they suffer a voltage drop. Yet success and failure are not about luck - in fact, there is a rhyme and reason as to why some ideas fail and why some make it big. Certain ideas are predictably scalable, while others are predictably destined for disaster.

In your career, there is one transition that stands out as the most crucial - going from individual contributor to competent manager. New managers have to learn how to lead others rather than do the work themselves, to win trust and respect, to motivate, and to strike the right balance between delegation and control. Many fail to make the transition successfully. In this timeless, indispensable book, Harvard Business School professor and leadership guru Linda Hill traces the experiences of 19 new managers over the course of their first year in the role.