Your Retirement Plan Has an Expiration Date
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Your Retirement Plan Has an Expiration Date
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Take any married couple, both 65 today — there's a genuine coin-flip
odds that at least one of them lives to 95. Now compare that to the
uncomfortable fact that most standard retirement plans are mathematically built to run out around 90. That gap is where this episode lives.
In this deep dive, two hosts take apart the Monte Carlo simulation most
retirees have been handed — where it actually came from (a Manhattan
Project mathematician, of all places), and why "92% probability of
success" is quietly the same thing as an 8% chance your money runs out
while you're still alive. They trace the four percent rule back to its
real 1994 origin, walk through exactly how sequence-of-returns risk
breaks a withdrawal strategy, and then apply all of it to Patricia —
67, a widow, $850,000 in an IRA, a plan that looks completely fine on
paper, and a one-in-three chance it fails her at exactly the wrong age.
This is a companion series exploring ideas from The Income Standard,
hosted by Tod Long. Hear Tod himself, in his own voice, on the flagship
show — link below.
theincomestandard.com