Still undefeated. Five for five on resolved bets — including Tim nailing the Oscars Best Picture pick from Episode 2.

This week we dig into the prediction market industry itself: Kalshi just raised a billion dollars at a $22B valuation while simultaneously getting sued in Arizona. Is it a prediction market or a gambling operation? Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi are both catching heat over "death markets," nuclear detonation bets, and the Netanyahu hoax. We break down what's real outrage and what's moral grandstanding.

Matt walks through his World Baseball Classic betting strategy — finding massive price discrepancies between sportsbooks and Polymarket (Italy at 35:1 on OddsChecker vs. 144:1 on Polymarket), trading in and out of positions live, and why the U.S. was overindexed. Andrew discovers 5-minute Bitcoin markets mid-recording and immediately starts live betting during the show.

We also talk about following whale wallets on prediction markets, a tool called Predictfolio for tracking top traders, and why you should be skeptical of "insider" trading narratives — including a wallet that just lost $120K betting Netanyahu was dead.

New bets this week:

• Matt: Arizona to win March Madness at 12¢ (1 unit)
• Andrew: Grégory Doucet to win the Lyon mayoral election at 80¢ (5 units)

Links:

• Website: https://www.worldatodds.com
• Free tools (arb calculator, hedge calculator, odds converter): https://www.worldatodds.com/tools
• Arbitrage calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator
• Hedge calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/hedge-calculator
• Scorecard (live bet tracker): https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecard
• New blog — How to read Polymarket prices vs. sportsbook odds: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/polymarket-odds-explained
• Predictfolio (whale wallet tracker): https://predictfolio.com
• OddsChecker (odds aggregator): https://oddschecker.com