Cuba is closer to collapse than at any point in decades and most people aren't paying attention.

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In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Moisés "Mo" Julião, retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and former Chief of Station, to break down what is really happening in Cuba right now.

From collapsing infrastructure to rising unrest, Cuba may be entering a phase that could reshape the Western Hemisphere.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why recent armed incursions into Cuba are not as unusual as they seem
• The historical context shaping Cuban behavior today
• How the Cuban regime maintains control through isolation
• The real economic crisis unfolding on the island
• The impact of fuel shortages, blackouts, and food supply breakdowns
• Why remittances from the United States are keeping the system alive
• The role of Russia and recent oil shipments into Cuba
• The potential for regime transition and what comes next
• Why humanitarian collapse is a real risk
• How Cuban intelligence historically outperformed expectations

Mo explains why Cuba operates in a "time capsule" shaped by the 1959 revolution and Cold War dynamics, and why that mindset still drives decisions today.

He also provides a sobering look at how quickly conditions could deteriorate into a full humanitarian crisis.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Mo Julião background
• 03:22 Armed incursions and historical context
• 06:08 U.S. presence and embassy realities
• 07:00 Daily life inside Cuba and information control
• 10:50 Remittances and economic survival
• 12:49 Signs of instability and protests
• 16:00 Regime survival and backchannel discussions
• 18:20 Cuban perception of the United States
• 20:14 The Russia tanker decision and strategic signaling
• 21:06 Power dynamics inside the Castro system
• 23:04 Cuban intelligence and espionage success
• 28:04 Infrastructure collapse and economic fragility
• 32:31 Risk of humanitarian crisis
• 36:35 Policy options and missed opportunities
• 45:00 Cultural insight and the "next revolution"

About Moisés "Mo" Julião

Moisés "Mo" Julião is the founder and CEO of Alenttay Solutions and a retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer.

He served over two decades in the CIA's Directorate of Operations, including as Chief of Station and in multiple conflict zones. He also served as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army and worked closely with special operations forces.

Alenttay Solutions
https://alenttay.com/

LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/in/moises-e-juliao-esq-2b97b5250

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting
(https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

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