『Wheat Watch: Global Grain Gains & Pains, with Vanessa Clark』のカバーアート

Wheat Watch: Global Grain Gains & Pains, with Vanessa Clark

Wheat Watch: Global Grain Gains & Pains, with Vanessa Clark

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This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Wheat Price Tracker, I am Vanessa Clark, and today we are digging into the latest wheat prices and what is moving this market right now.

Let us start with where wheat is trading. Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter wheat nearby futures are sitting around five dollars and thirty six cents per bushel. Over in Europe, French milling wheat on the Euronext exchange is trading close to one hundred eighty nine euros per tonne, which is about two hundred twenty dollars per tonne. In Canada, Minneapolis hard red spring wheat March futures are around five dollars seventy six cents per bushel. Those are your key global benchmark wheat prices that a lot of cash contracts and basis levels track against.

So what is driving these wheat prices today. First, global supply is heavy. The United States Department of Agriculture and other analysts are looking for record or near record world wheat production, with big crops in Russia, Argentina, the United States, and the European Union. That means global ending stocks are comfortable, which tends to cap rallies in wheat futures.

Second, exports are a mixed story. United States wheat exports are running more than twenty percent above last year, which is supportive for Chicago prices, but Russia continues to offer very cheap wheat on the world market. Russian free on board offers for standard milling wheat remain aggressively priced, and that cheap Black Sea wheat is putting steady downward pressure on global wheat prices.

Third, traders are watching the latest United States Department of Agriculture WASDE report. The most recent update left United States wheat ending stocks basically unchanged but increased global production and global wheat stocks again, which the market reads as neutral to slightly bearish for prices.

On the weather side, winter wheat conditions in key growing regions like Kansas, parts of the southern Plains, and much of Europe are generally rated good to excellent. That reduces immediate weather risk and gives buyers more confidence that supplies will stay ample into the new crop year.

So what can you do with this information. If you are a farmer or producer, these prices and heavy global stocks suggest it might make sense to lock in a portion of your 2025 or 2026 crop on small rallies using forward contracts or hedge to arrive contracts, especially if local basis is attractive. If you are a buyer for a mill, feedlot, or food company, today’s relatively low wheat futures give you a chance to extend coverage a bit further out, particularly on Chicago and Euronext contracts, to protect your cost of goods.

For listeners just following the wheat market, remember that wheat prices are shaped by a mix of futures markets, cash bids at country elevators, and basis. When you hear that Chicago wheat is at five dollars thirty six, your local cash price will be that futures price plus or minus your local basis. Strong export demand or local feed demand can tighten basis even when futures are soft, so always check with your local elevator or broker.

Before we wrap up, keep an eye on three things over the next few days. One, any surprise changes in export sales reports, especially big tenders from North Africa or the Middle East. Two, updated weather forecasts for United States winter wheat and the Black Sea region as we move deeper into winter. And three, any geopolitical headlines out of the Black Sea that might disrupt shipments and spark a short term rally in global wheat prices.

That is it for today’s Daily Wheat Price Tracker with me, Vanessa Clark. Thanks for hanging out with me and staying on top of the latest wheat prices, wheat futures, and global wheat market news. Be sure to subscribe, share this with a friend who follows grain markets, and tune in next time for another update on where wheat is trading and what it means for you.

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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
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