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Wheat Watch: Global Glut Softens Prices, but Holidays Loom Large

Wheat Watch: Global Glut Softens Prices, but Holidays Loom Large

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This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello, friends, welcome to another episode of Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. Im your host Vanessa Clark, and today were diving into the freshest wheat market updates, including the latest trading prices, global production trends, and what it all means for you.

Lets kick off with the numbers you have been waiting for. According to Farm Progress, the December 2025 wheat futures contract closed at 554.5 cents per bushel, down 3.75 cents from the previous session. The front-month December 2025 contract on the Chicago Board of Trade hit a low of 552.25 and a high of 558.5, settling with that slight dip. March 2026 wheat is at 573 cents per bushel, also down 3.75 cents, while May 2026 sits at 584.25 cents, off by 4 cents. These prices reflect a softening trend amid ample global supplies, but keep an eye on volatility as we head into the weekend.

Farm Futures reports that the USDA has boosted global ending wheat stocks for 2025-26 to a four-year high of 274.9 million metric tons, up 5.7 percent from last year, with production now pegged at 837.8 million metric tons, a 4.6 percent increase. Thats driven by bumper crops in places like Argentina, where the Rural Grain Exchange just raised their forecast to a whopping 27.7 million metric tons, smashing records. Chinas wheat output is steady at 140 million metric tons per their stats bureau, and US export sales are off to a strong start at 328.9 million bushels, up 11.8 percent year-over-year.

On the weather front, frigid temps in the North Central Midwest should not harm winter crops, but Ukraine is lagging with just 55.5 million metric tons harvested so far, below expectations. Barchart notes recent sessions saw modest gains before this pullback, with Algeria snapping up around 500,000 to 600,000 metric tons from Black Sea or Argentine origins.

What does this mean for you, whether youre a farmer, baker, or just watching your grocery bill? With stocks piling up, prices may stay range-bound, so if youre buying wheat for baking or feed, consider locking in now before holiday liquidity thins out. Farmers, those export sales are a bright spot, so stay tuned to USDA updates for selling opportunities.

Thats your Daily Wheat Price Tracker for today, packed with the info to help you make smart moves. Thanks for joining me, friends, like were chatting over coffee. Hit subscribe, tune in tomorrow for more, and take care.

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