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Wheat Watch: Global Glut Grinds Prices Lower

Wheat Watch: Global Glut Grinds Prices Lower

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This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

You are listening to Daily Wheat Price Tracker, and I am your host, Vanessa Clark.

Let us jump straight into today’s wheat market update.

According to Trading Economics, the global benchmark wheat price is trading around five hundred nine cents per bushel, just over five dollars and nine cents. Over the past month, wheat prices are down roughly seven percent and are also lower than this time last year, reflecting a broader downtrend in the wheat market.

Pro Farmer reports that March soft red winter wheat futures in Chicago settled near five dollars six and one quarter cents per bushel, hitting yet another contract low. Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures closed just above five dollars seven and three quarter cents, also hovering near recent lows. Total Farm Marketing notes that all three major United States wheat classes are considered technically oversold, which means the market could be ripe for a short term bounce if any friendly news appears.

Why are wheat prices so weak right now? Trading Economics points to rising global supply. The United States Department of Agriculture has increased its forecast for world wheat production, with record or near record crops in Argentina, a very large harvest in Australia, a rebound in European Union production, and strong yields in Russia. On top of that, Russia has dropped its export tax on wheat, and Argentina has reduced export duties. That combination makes it easier and cheaper for major exporters to push wheat into the world market, pressuring prices lower.

At the same time, demand is growing, but not fast enough to absorb all that extra supply. The United States Department of Agriculture has nudged global consumption estimates higher, yet stocks remain comfortable. For buyers like grain elevators, feedlots, and flour mills, this environment of ample supply and soft wheat prices offers opportunities to lock in lower costs.

Here are a few practical takeaways if you are watching daily wheat prices.

If you are a farmer or producer, be cautious about selling everything at these contract lows. Consider using scale up sales. That means committing small portions as the market rallies, rather than all at once. You might also talk with a trusted merchandiser about simple tools like minimum price contracts or using call options to keep some upside open while protecting your downside.

If you are a buyer, such as a livestock producer, miller, or food manufacturer, this is a good time to review and possibly extend your coverage. When wheat futures are making contract lows, you can use that period to secure a portion of your needs for the coming months. You do not have to lock everything in, but layering in purchases on price dips can average your costs down over time.

For everyday listeners who are just curious about wheat prices, keep an eye on a few key search terms when you check the news: global wheat supply, Russia wheat exports, Argentina crop forecast, and United States Department of Agriculture world outlook. These are the drivers that tend to move the daily wheat price you hear quoted.

That is it for today’s Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. Thank you for spending a few minutes with me and staying informed about what is happening in the wheat market.

Be sure to subscribe, tell a friend who follows grain or commodity prices, and tune in next time for your next daily wheat price update.

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