Wheat Watch: Global Glut Grinds Grain Gains
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This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.
Hey friend, and welcome back to Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. I am Vanessa, and today we are breaking down the latest wheat prices and what is moving this market.
Let us start with the numbers, because that is why you are here. According to Farm Progress, Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures for December twenty twenty five recently traded around five dollars and fifty four cents per bushel, down a few cents on the day. Farm Progress also shows the September twenty twenty five wheat contract near five dollars and thirty four cents per bushel, also slightly lower. On the cash side, Canadian station GX ninety four reports Minneapolis spring wheat for March at about five dollars and seventy one cents per bushel, down roughly two cents.
If you look at delivered prices, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board in the United Kingdom reports feed wheat delivered into East Anglia at about one hundred sixty eight pounds fifty per tonne, down about five pounds on the week. Canadian radio station six twenty CKRM lists number one red spring wheat at about two hundred forty five dollars thirty per tonne, down just over a dollar.
So what is driving these wheat prices lower. The big theme is supply. ADM Investor Services and the Western Producer both highlight record or near record wheat crops in several key exporters. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is calling for a record wheat harvest around twenty five and a half million tonnes. Australia’s agricultural agency says its wheat output could reach about thirty five point six million tonnes. Statistics Canada just pegged the Canadian all wheat crop at almost forty million tonnes, a new record.
On top of that, the Food and Agriculture Organization reports that global cereal production in twenty twenty five is on track to top three billion tonnes for the first time, thanks in part to larger than expected wheat harvests. All of that grain adds up to comfortable world wheat supplies, and heavy supply usually means pressure on prices.
So what can you do with this as a grower, buyer, or investor. First, recognize that this is a globally driven market. Watch the big exporters like Russia, Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the European Union. News about harvest size, export taxes, or weather there can move your local wheat price even if your own fields look fine.
Second, pay attention to basis, not just futures. In some regions, farmers are reluctant to sell wheat at these lower prices, which can support local cash bids even when futures are weak. Talking regularly with your elevator or merchandiser can help you spot when local basis is strong enough to make a sale worthwhile.
Third, think in steps rather than all or nothing. With futures stuck in a relatively low range and big crops weighing on the market, you might consider scaling in sales in small chunks on rallies, rather than waiting for the perfect high that may not come quickly. If you are a buyer, such as a feedlot or a flour mill, this kind of soft market can be a good time to extend coverage when futures dip to the lower end of their recent range.
Finally, remember that wheat is not trading in a vacuum. Corn and soybeans, global freight costs, and Black Sea geopolitical risk can all nudge wheat prices up or down. Keeping an eye on a simple weekly market summary from a trusted analyst can give you context without overwhelming you.
That is it for today’s Daily Wheat Price Tracker with me, Vanessa Clark. Thanks for hanging out and talking wheat prices with me. If you found this helpful, be sure to subscribe, share this with a fellow grain nerd, and tune in next time for more up to date wheat price action and market insight.
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