There's an emerging consensus that China is among the chief beneficiaries of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. While Beijing has undoubtedly welcomed Washington becoming entangled in yet another war in West Asia, and continues to reap commercial gains from booming exports of electric vehicles and other technologies, the conflict is also exposing the limits of China's geopolitical influence.

China is, first and foremost, a commercial power in the Persian Gulf. Beyond trade and investment, however, it has little diplomatic, political, or security leverage to shape the course of the conflict or influence the region's postwar order.

Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and author of the China-MENA Newsletter, joins Eric to examine why China's economic footprint in the Gulf has not translated into strategic influence.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Is China really benefiting from the Iran war?
• Why Beijing won't replace the U.S. in the Gulf
• The limits of China's geopolitical influence
• China's commercial strategy in the Middle East
• Gulf views on balancing China and America
• What comes next for China-Gulf relations

Show Notes:

• Sign up to The China-MENA Substack Newsletter: https://chinamenanewsletter.substack.com/
• The Diplomat: After the Iran War, China's Middle East Strategy Will Prioritize the Gulf by Chenjie Song
• The Guardian: China is a clear winner from Trump's war in Middle East, report concludes by Amy Hawkins

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