Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com setup, then steel man the bull case with AI capex, bigger tax refunds, and potential tariff stimulus. Finally, they explain why Bitcoin may be a leading liquidity indicator for TradFi and walk through the portfolio positioning, including the heavy cash stance and what would trigger the next fat pitch.

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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE
https://bankless.cc/Galaxy

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
3:14 Analyzing the Bond Market Signals
6:01 The Growth & Inflation Narrative
9:38 Transitioning to Risk-Off Assets
12:57 Equities: Are We in a Tech Bubble?
15:13 Comparing Today to the Dot-Com Era
19:10 Understanding Market Catalysts
22:39 The Bull Case for AI Stocks
26:52 Tax Refunds & Economic Impacts
29:57 Consumer Behavior & Market Trends
33:04 Portfolio Adjustments & Future Outlook
35:24 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.