Arctic Front and First Snowfall
The Chicago area is under a Winter Storm Watch for late Sunday night into Monday due to an Arctic front and lake-effect snow potential. Rain is expected Saturday evening, transitioning to snow overnight, with the heaviest snow likely from midnight to 8 a.m. Monday. (Or 10am).
Temperatures will drop sharply, with highs in the 30s Sunday and Monday, and wind chills in the teens Monday morning.
Snowfall Amounts
Official forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) indicate 2–8 inches for Cook County, but localized totals could be higher (possibly double-digit amounts where intense bands set up). Some models suggest up to 15 inches in certain spots, though placement is uncertain.
Snowfall rates of 2–3 inches per hour are possible in the most intense bands.
Lake Michigan Water Temperature
Lake Michigan surface water temperatures in early November typically range 45–52°F. But currently they are in low to mid 50s which is warm for this time of year.
Lake-Effect Snow Dynamics
Strong temperature contrasts between the lake and the 850 mb level (around 5,000 ft) are necessary for Lake-effect snow. It requires a difference of roughly 23°F or more.
Northeast winds usually occur at the start of a storm for Chicago. This creates enhanced lake-effect snow for Chicago. However for winds to be off the lake as a storm departs and Arctic air arrives is uncommon for Chicago. This is what causes lake effect snow. It's also uncommon for this to happen in November due to warm Lake changing precipitation to rain.
Buffalo 2022 Comparison
The Buffalo storm in November 2022 produced over 80 inches of snow in some areas, with snowfall rates up to 6 inches per hour and thundersnow. Comparing this event to that event is reasonable in terms of dynamics, though Chicago’s totals will be far lower.
Timing: Heaviest snow expected overnight Sunday into Monday morning, tapering by late morning Monday.
Wind Gusts: Up to 35 mph, causing blowing snow and reduced visibility.
Chicago: 8.6-9.8 inches
Cicero: 9.8 inches
Oak Lawn: 5.4 inches
Harvey: 6.4 inches
Tinley Park: 5.8 inches
Oswego: 0.3 inches
Plainfield: 0.8 inches
Wheaton: 1.5 inches
Schaumburg: 1.8 inches
Palatine:1.9 inches
Evanston 8.2
These totals are for 12 hour period from 10 pm Sunday night 11/9 to 10am Monday 11/10/25.
They assume a 10 to 1 snow to water ratio and follows the High resolution rapid refresh model as advertised on Windy.com
I used this computer model because it is high resolution which is essential for lake effect snow and seems to be better than the NAM model regarding lake effect snow events from. What I've seen.
It should be noted that while at times the snow to water ratio will be 10 to 1 due to warm Lake, but lake effect often takes on a powdery snow. Should snow to water ratio be double, then amounts could potentially be double whatever listed here in some spots.
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