🎙️ Episode Highlights

00:00 – Market Pulse: We’re So Back Baby!
US IPOs are red-hot (CoreWeave, Circle), S&P nearly at ATH, and Q2 GDP forecasts hit 3.5%.
The resurgence in AI and crypto-led optimism despite fiscal clouds.

03:00 – Bubble or Boom?
Are we heading into bubble territory?
US deficits are ballooning, but M&A tailwinds and LP liquidity look promising.

05:00 – The Sentiment Effect
Economic psychology: consumer sentiment drives GDP.
Europe’s problem? It talks itself down. The US? Belief + boldness.

06:50 – Big Tech Bets on Britain
Amazon pledges £40B UK investment (data centres, fulfilment, even a film studio).
British Business Bank expands to £25B. Visma chooses London IPO over Nasdaq—confidence win?

14:00 – UK’s 10-Year Industrial Push
Gov’t targets AI, defence, creative, and energy—aiming to slash grid connection delays.
Electricity costs still a major drag. Can policy execution catch up to rhetoric?

18:00 – The UK’s Economic Reality Check
High inflation + stagnant growth = stagflation-lite.
£66B in working-age benefits forecast by 2029. Labour’s internal revolt blocks real reform.

27:00 – Tariff Tensions Mount
Trump trade wars return: EU braces for July 9 deadline. Retaliation looms.
Could German auto exports be the pressure point?

32:00 – AI in the Wild
Apple eyes Perplexity. DocuSign sues scrappy 2-day clone.
Seed-strapped startups exit for millions without VC - Paradigm shift or PR hype?

37:00 – Copyright Battles Begin
Meta & Anthropic win round one using “transformative use” defence.
The big legal fight (OpenAI vs NYT) still looms.

41:00 – Robotaxi Rollout?
Tesla demos driverless fleet in Austin - damp squib? Still lagging Waymo.
Real progress or just share-price theatre?

43:00 – Europe’s Bay Area Dream
Can Europe become Silicon Valley? Should we can we?
It’s not about funding - it’s confidence, imagination, and embracing failure.

51:00 – Optimism Please!
Q2 earnings optimism and promising chip efficiency breakthroughs.
Markets strong, founders bold, and Europe's moment (maybe) coming.

🎙️ Upside 45 Podcast – “Defence, Dirty Deals, and Disruption”

This week

• EU defence spend motors - will it save us?
• European Space Agency military satellites
• US-China competition - European opportunity?
• US IPOs up 30% this year, so far, so what
• British surgical robotics start-up -> sell-out

⏱️ [01:13] – Geopolitical Hotspots and Defence

• Iran’s global influence and diaspora
• Ukraine’s resistance to Israel-Iran dynamics
• Cautious optimism about regime change
• WWIII has begun?

⏱️ [03:35] – Oil & Markets

• Brent crude spikes (from $70 → $77, possibly $100+)
• Shipping, inflation, and interest rates affected
• Bank of England holds rates amid uncertainty

⏱️ [05:52] – Impact on Venture?

• Founders not immediately impacted, but long-term capital flow risks flagged
• Defence tension might dry up funding or shift VC attention

⏱️ [06:56] – Defence as a European Economic Engine?

• Defence our financial lifeline? But VC exposure to defence is tiny

⏱️ [09:35] – Unicorns in EU Defense Tech

• 3 recent unicorns: Helsing, Tekever, Quantum Systems
• Helsing shifts gear
• VCs rush in - BUT Sales cycles, procurement, regulation

⏱️ [12:38] – Helsing’s Capital & The VC Taboo

• US firms: Lightspeed, Accel, General Catalyst
• Homegrown capital is crucial to reducing 10x funding gap with US
• EIF restricts arms/weapons investments
• Helsing’s value as a “reference company” for LPs

⏱️ [18:51] – ESA’s Satellite Plans

• EU Space Agency wants €1B+ to build military satellite network.

⏱️ [22:15] – Iris vs Starlink Context

• Iris <> Starlink
• EU must move fast on sovereignty or risk dependence

⏱️ [23:59] – NASA Cuts vs ESA Budgets

• NASA’s proposed 25% cut
• Europe’s ESA increasing funding—ironically divergent paths

⏱️ [25:52] – China, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains

• EU’s dependence on Chinese imports (clean tech, chemicals)
• Fear of trade dumping post US-China de-coupling
• Rare earth constraints impacting defence and auto industries

⏱️ [29:45] – Tariff Timelines

• July 9 tariff decision
• Potential EU-US mini deal to avoid Trump’s punitive tariffs
• Pharmaceuticals next

⏱️ [32:00] – IPO Boom in the US

• Chime, Circle, CoreWeave IPOs—massive post-IPO pops
• Klarna leads EU pipeline

⏱️ [34:04] – IPO vs Private Capital

• Bill Gurley’s hatred of bankers
• Private markets still offering better valuations
• SPACs are back!

⏱️ [36:25] – Surgical Robots and CMR Surgical

• CMR (Cambridge Medical Robotics)
• Raised $1B, now eyeing $4B exit
• Premature exit
• CMR’s potential lost
• Scale homegrown tech more aggressively

⏱️ [44:45] – Deed of the Week

• Daniel Ek’s €600M into Helsing
• Paris-based Nabla raises $70M Series C
• Scale AI deal closes in one week
• Fastest capital deployment of its kind; no FTC review needed

⏱️ [49:05] – Founders in Government

• Alex Depledge named UK entrepreneurship advisor
• Praise for founders like Matt Clifford shaping UK tech policy

⏱️ [51:10] – Meta’s AI Talent War

• Meta’s aggressive poaching of OpenAI talent
• AI job market likened to football transfer season
• Pay off or backfire?

Upside - The *real* stories affecting European Venture.

This week Mads, Lomax and I discuss: AI cybercrime, UK govt investing in tech/AI, cheap energy (nuclear isn't), Tesla’s RoboFail, 996 and founder work-life balance, AI growth but is the revenue good? and the shock flip between private vs. public markets.

• 01:24 – Cyber-Security: Rising Threats
  43 % of UK businesses hit by cyber-crime last year; avg. of 2,000 attacks/week in Q1 2025.
• 02:07 – AI-Enabled Attacks & Geopolitical Impact
  AI tools lower the barrier for sophisticated attacks by state-sponsored or rogue actors - new front in modern warfare by economic disruption.
• 04:12 – Kinetic vs. Cyber Warfare
  The mix of traditional (kinetic) and cyber fronts.
• 07:20 – Government Spending Review: Big Picture
  Rachel Reeves’s 3-year spending framework amid a weak UK economy: £120bn on infrastructure; £43bn for science & innovation; £2bn AI Action Plan.
• 16:50 – Energy Landscape & Nuclear
  The UK’s high industrial energy costs (6× US); sovereignty & intermittency issues; nuclear offers clean baseload and sovereignty but at what cost?
• 19:21 – Fusion & Long-Term Energy Tech
  Recent fusion advances (Tokamak West’s 22 min plasma) and Proxima Fusion’s €130 m Series A, but 20 yr horizon remains.
• 25:51 – Tesla’s Robotaxi Roll-Out
  Tesla’s delayed Austin launch (moved from June 12→22); cost comparison vs. Waymo.
• 28:34 – Europe’s AV Landscape: The Brexit Dividend
  Wayve’s UK partnerships (Nissan, Uber, spring 2026 trial at L4 autonomy) versus EU’s slower L2/3 regs.
• 32:26 – Founder Work Ethic Debate
  Heated talk around “996” & extreme hustle: Lomax quotes Paul Graham on youth vs. age advantages.
• 37:00 – AI Revenue Growth & Sustainability
  LLM businesses doubling revenue every 2 months; examples: Anysphere’s $500m ARR, Lovable’s €61m ARR; concerns around gross margins, churn & long-term profitability.
• 46:14 – Private vs. Public Market Performance
  First time in 25 yrs that private markets underperform public across 1/3/5/10 yr horizons (State Street report): “Magnificent 7” driving public returns. A shake-out & opportunity ahead as private seeks its illiquidity premium.
• 52:00 – Notable Deals
  • Multiverse (ES) – €189m Series B for LLM compression tech (95 % size reduction)
  • Oxford Ionics → IonQ – $1bn+ acquisition of UK trapped-ion quantum spin-out
• 55:47 – Closing & Condolences
  Dan sends thoughts to those affected by the Air India crash, and wraps up with thanks and next-week teasers.