Upside is a weekly pod that looks at the global news headlines and works out what really matters for European tech, venture, startups and investing.

With European VCs - Lomax Ward, Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen

What’s on the docket this week:

•SpaceX mega-raise / IPO noise: “what are you really buying?”

•“Europe’s euro success”: North–South polarity flipping

•China’s $1T+ goods trade surplus + what it means for Europe

•US defence spend reality check

•AI corner: chips, models, and AI bubble chatter

00:44 — Is DeepMind a “UK business”?

02:07 — Sovereignty is back baby!

•In defence / strategic sectors, cap table sovereignty now affects outcomes.

•Mentioned: UK rules requiring government consent in certain sectors (context: national security screening).

03:18 — DeepMind × UK DSIT partnership

•New partnership + UK research lab expansion; tied to the AI Security Institute and public services.

06:20 — AI tutor moment (education-focused Gemini)

•Vision: curriculum-grounded AI tutor as a once-in-a-generation lever for education.

08:56 — SpaceX: IPO in 2026? Raise ~ $30B? Valuation talk: $1.5T

•Why IPO now if private markets still open? Answer: scale + capital needs + timing.

◦Starlink: fast-growing, high-margin connectivity “golden goose”

14:18 — The “rest of the valuation”: orbital data centres thesis

•Speculative upside: compute in orbit (solar intensity, cooling, vacuum data transmission).

•Reality check: today’s revenue is tiny; power + mass constraints are brutal.

•Europe lens: founder talent often needs the US ecosystem to build at this frontier.

20:02 — Europe gets hit from both sides: US + China

•US signals Western Europe is lower priority; more warmth to Central/Eastern Europe (per discussion).

•China’s exports keep powering ahead; tariffs leak via third-country routing.

25:45 — Musk vs EU + the single-market problem

•Musk lobs political grenades after X/EU regulatory action (context: DSA).

•Core structural issue raised: no true EU single market in financial services → higher friction + lost productivity.

29:17 — Defence spending

•Warning to VCs: commitments don’t equal budgets landing now.

•Startup mismatch: defence procurement cycles vs 18–24 month funding cadence.

32:19 — AI corner: “bubble” talk + positioning

•Institutions trimming exposure at the margin, but not fleeing.

•View expressed: still upside runway, despite concentration and risk-off hedging.

33:44 — Europe W: Mistral open-sources DevStral 2 (coding model)

•Narrative: Europe “back in the open-source game.”

•Contrast: Meta reportedly leaning toward a closed model strategy (“Avocado” mentioned).

35:23 — Chips geopolitics: Nvidia H200s, China domestic ramp

•Thesis: export controls accelerate Chinese domestic chip ecosystems.

•Mentions: Huawei Ascend; Moore Threads momentum (plus broader “self-reliance” logic).

38:18 — Deal of the week: Unconventional AI — $475M seed

Upside #69 - For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture, startups and investing. Every week Mads, Lomax, Andrew and myself (Dan) get together and chat.

Bending Spoons

01:27 Berkshire-like roll-up; mostly debt-funded; big integration/tech-debt execution risk.

3:30 “US→Italy arbitrage”—cut expensive US costs, rebuild with top Italian talent + high-efficiency culture; cash-cow ops; high employee satisfaction.

05:13 Success likely hinges on better distribution/ops than previous owners.

Brexit + Europe’s challenges

07:01 “trade intensity” vs G7—UK uniquely diverging down since 2019; services don’t offset goods loss.

09:20 Labour red lines may shift; customs union helps goods but politically messy (standards).

11:02 IKEA label anecdote → regulatory complexity.

12:30 VW/Europe: China competition + governance/union constraints; Europe slow to reform; supply-chain ripple risks.

23:00 Ecosystem fix: more R&D, talent/immigration, cut red tape, govt as buyer; biggest issue = late-stage capital/pensions.

AI Corner
32:20 OpenAI “code red” on Google; distribution battle; OpenAI focusing on product vs ads/monetisation.

36:03 Winners = product + distribution + cost at scale (Google infra/TPUs advantage).

39:03 Anthropic IPO rumours (2026) debated: access to bigger pools vs “top of cycle” cynicism.

Deal of the week
41:54 Black Forest Labs — $300m at $3.25bn; image-model leader; strong ARR rumoured.

43:13 ICEYE — €200m at ~€2.5bn; SAR satellites; defence demand.

44:05 Expedition Growth Capital fundraise — €323m.

44:23 Neurocore — ~$2.5m; platform tooling for robotics ML teams.

Upside #68 w/ Robin Haak (Robin Capital), Lomax (Outsized), Mads and Dan (SuperSeed).

Topics: Germany’s slowdown • Social media bans • UK budget • Solo GPs • N26 • Europe vs Big Tech • AI Corner

01:21 – Robin’s Background

100+ investments, 8 unicorns. Co-founded SmartRecruiters → sold to SAP ($100M ARR). Former GP at Revaya (€600M AUM). Now building a 50-year solo GP franchise.

03:58 – Social Media Ban for Under-16s

Mads: EU Parliament pushes advisory resolution; strong evidence social media harms teen mental health, especially girls.

06:39 – US Says “Go Easy on Big Tech”

Lomax: US Commerce voices warn EU that tech regulation ties into trade/tariff negotiations. Don’t conflate antitrust with child safety—two different battles.

10:00 – UK Budget

Improved EMI stock options - More flexible EIS / VCT rules. Nice to hear a Chancellor talk about startups & innovation.

12:17 – EU Space Surveillance

ESA launches its first military space programme (€1B). Far behind the US, but a step toward defence autonomy.

13:19 – N26 Troubles

Regulatory caps slowed growth for years, BaFin repeatedly intervened. Leadership now reshuffling. Big question: Would N26 be Revolut-sized if founded outside Germany?

18:49 – German Economy Reality Check

GDP still below 2019 levels. Insolvencies highest in a decade. Restaurants down 20–40%. Years of underinvestment in tech, infrastructure, energy. Early nuclear shutdown = higher energy costs, fallback to coal.

25:04 – Why No Nuclear Return?

Public wants it (~75%). Politics block it; ideology > pragmatism.

27:07 – German Decline Impact on Startups

ESOP improved (still heavy tax). Bureaucracy is brutal: notaries, translations, delays. Many founders incorporate Delaware C-Corp + German GmbH.

Solo GP / Part-Time VC Trend

34:21 – The Movement

US led the way: Elad Gil, Auren, Buckley.

Three types: Lifelong solo GPs. Solo-to-multi-GP founders. Part-time solo GPs (e.g., 11 Labs’ Carlos Reiner). It works at $15–30M scale; Fund II usually becomes full-time.

40:10 – OpenAI, Google & Anthropic

OpenAI may need $200B+ by 2030. Google’s Gemini 3 beating OpenAI on many benchmarks. Monetisation gap: only ~5% of ChatGPT users pay. Warren Buffett buying Google is a signal?

44:57 – The Scary Bit: God-AI

Robin cites Eric Schmidt: If an adversary builds god-AI first, “we might have to bomb it.”