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Upside

Upside

著者: Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed
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This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.

Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology.

From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems.

The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/

With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets.

Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com

© 2025 Upside
マネジメント・リーダーシップ リーダーシップ 経済学
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  • Upside #57 - What's Hot & Not in European Tech w/ Mike Butcher from TechCrunch
    2025/09/13

    This week we chat with Mike the ex editor of TechCrunch, getting his take on the past, present and future of all things Euro-startup. Mads shares his thoughts on the All In Summit. We chat about defence strategies, pension funds and Euro cash injections, Germany moving and shaking their startup scene, Draghi's anniversary, the EU Inc guys / 28th regime - and what this all means for us in venture, for founders, investors and startups.

    00:35 – TechCrunch Europe → reset
    Redundancies post-Yahoo sale; Mike takes a breather, experiments with social video.

    01:29 – Mike’s showreel
    ’95 journo → FTGuardian → joins TechCrunch Europe in ’07; spins up The Europas and Techfugees.

    03:51 – New media > old blogs
    Creators (MrBeast, Bari Weiss, Cleo Abram) now disrupt the disruptors; social is the front door for news; AI reshapes formats.

    06:02 – Europe’s vibe, not the Valley’s
    Fragmentation persists, but Slush VivaTech Web Summit LTW etc. anchor a distinct EU flavour.

    09:24 – Culture shift needed
    Be candid *and* boosterish; being bigger and bolder.

    12:17 – All-In Summit debrief
    Robotics “hand problem” (26 actuators arm; supply chain missing), AGI ≈ 5–10y, China’s practical AI push, enterprise AI moats (boring infra), Europe’s latent talent vs weak commercialisation; “physical AI” window is NOW.

    16:27 – EU Inc & Draghi (1-year on)
    EU-wide startup entity push; Draghi’s 383 recs: only ~40 actioned; public consultation live at eu-inc.org.

    18:29 – What to fix in Europe
    Planning gridlock (HS2 file bloat; energy permits ~44 months) + misallocated pensions (€16T, >55% in bonds ~3%). Shift saver incentives and trustee “prudence” toward productive assets to unlock ~€970B yr.

    20:56 – Implementation drag
    Only a sliver of Draghi implemented; call for a “crack” execution unit; R&D under-invested vs US. EU grants take ~240 days from green light to cash.

    24:02 – UK pensions: rhetoric vs mechanics
    Fee caps & plumbing still block meaningful allocations despite political cheerleading.

    28:28 – Germany’s draft startup tax reform
    Founder and VC-friendly fixes from German Govt (e.g., ESOP dry income relief, longer deferral, broader eligibility).

    35:39 – Deal of the week: ASML → Mistral (€2B)
    Mistral >€100m ARR; ASML’s strategic seat to frontier models; comps far below US hypers; BNP with 800+ use cases. Raises EU late-stage capital question; balance sheets stepping in.

    48:48 – Defence - UK Strategy, Russian Drones and NATO/European Reaction
    Poland shoots down Russian drones; UK to 2.5% GDP defence by 2027 (+ regional £250m hubs). Good signal, too small; procurement speed is the moat; Eastern front buying *now*.

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    1 時間 5 分
  • Upside #56 - Most Euro Pension Cash Ever, The Power of Xi, & Let Chaos Reign
    2025/09/06

    Let markets drive early-stage VC; fix EU growth/IPO capital via pension reform. Win AI as power users, not model builders. Geopolitics demands EU/ally coordination. Quantum’s having a moment.

    This week it's Mads, Lomax and Dan. All European early stage VCs looking behind the headlines to explore what's affecting venture, founders and investors.

    00:00–03:07 — “28th regime” for EU VC?Dan proposes a structured EU venture vehicle

    03:07–07:46 — Let chaos reign- Bottom-up or top-down? governments already big LPs; VC must deliver performance to unlock pensions.

    07:46–13:11 — Macro & pensions.Dealroom report: EU VC-backed value ≈ $3.5T; domestic pensions rising but tiny vs need; UK fiscal context not worst in G7.

    13:24–16:46 — Macro vs micro - Do we care?Great teams still raise; next KPI is a Europe-born “Mag-7-scale” company.

    16:46–19:49 — Why UK tax payers support MAG7.Rules favour bonds (low fees/vol); reform prudential & tax to channel savings into EU productive assets.

    19:49–21:25 — Can EU scale.Capital aggregation at multi-billion rounds remains the choke point.

    22:41–25:48 — Google antitrust.No breakup; must share index/click data on commercial, non-discriminatory terms—light remedy.

    26:18–30:16 — Isambard & AI adoption.UK supercomputer is symbolic; real edge is becoming the best AI adopter (health/life-sciences, public services).

    32:25–39:47 — Power of Xi.China’s manufacturing lead; EU needs re-armament, industrial base, and alliances (US + Asian democracies).

    40:24–41:54 — Deals of the week (Quantum).Quantinuum raises $600m (≈$10B val); IQM hits unicorn; prior Oxford Ionics → IonQ deal noted.

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    43 分
  • Upside #55 - Digital Sovereignty vs Autarky
    2025/08/30

    This week on Upside – It's a digital sovereignty deeper dive - what does it really mean, Nvidia is up but kinda not, Apple vs CMA - stormy teacup, and Governments Buying AI - which is a a great thing! Yes it is.

    With Mads, Lomax, Andreas and Dan.

    00:52 – Why Nvidia is “the poster child”
    Picks & shovels of AI; outsized share of data-centre capex; sheer scale of valuation and index weight.

    01:49 – Numbers that bend the mind
    $100B rev $25B net income quarter; growth decelerating (YoY strong, QoQ data-centre +5%) and mostly “priced in.”

    04:33 – Europe’s chip toolkit
    ASML, STMicro, Infineon, ARM as the homegrown counterweight—and the media’s US-centric bias.

    06:07 – Apple vs UK CMA
    Interoperability, payments, “Apple tax,” and the tension between competition policy and platform control.

    08:05 – When regulation helps
    Open banking as a rare win; risk of “fighting the last war” on phones while AI becomes the real battleground.

    16:36 – Antitrust lessons for AI
    Need smarter, transatlantic, pro-innovation guardrails before AI market power locks in.

    18:55 – Creative destruction vs. cops
    Markets toppled IBM/Microsoft; you can’t regulate your way to greatness—create conditions to compete.

    21:05 – Sovereignty kicks off: US buys 10% of Intel
    Equity via CHIPS grants; debate on retroactive terms, national champions, and when government should own.

    28:26 – Europe’s long tradition of state help
    Airbus, satellites, energy—how “strategic” differs from picking winners.

    30:42 – What should be sovereign
    Compute/chips, energy, critical minerals, food/health inputs, and space—areas where hands-off fails.

    37:12 – UK gov is buying AI (a lot)
    Spend surges; Microsoft & Palantir dominate; case for being a “power user” while seeding EU/UK alternatives.

    43:54 – Can startups sell to government?
    Procurement is the moat for incumbents; call for sandboxes, fast paths, and small experiments.

    50:01 – What is digital sovereignty (really)?
    Acting without others’ permission; Europe’s dilemma: US defence, China manufacturing, and now US AI.

    52:07 – China’s playbook
    Back sectors, unleash brutal competition (EVs), let winners emerge—then scale.

    57:33 – Follow the money
    EU pension funds underweight EU VC; stop funding US dominance if we want sovereignty.

    Fast takeaways

    * Nvidia remains the bellwether, but the growth rate is normalising at hyperscale.
    * Apple vs CMA = overdue competition questions, but don’t fight 2010’s war in 2025 - aim rules at AI.
    * Sovereignty ≠ autarky: diversify dependencies, go big on adoption, and grow local apps/infra.
    * Procurement reform (sandboxes, smaller tickets) is the cheapest way to catalyse EU/UK AI champions

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    1 時間 3 分
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