Understanding ADP: How to Draft Best Ball Outliers (Small Miss, Big Hit)
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Understanding ADP: How to Draft Best Ball Outliers (Small Miss, Big Hit)
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The skill that actually wins Best Ball Mania: finding outliers on purpose. Building on the BBM-winner study, we break down what makes a good pick — a guy who gets you INTO the playoffs, or one with the ceiling to WIN a playoff week — and how to hunt "small miss, big hit" profiles instead of drafting off median projections.
Key ideas: ADP is just a price sheet (and it's wrong every year). Use Understanding ADP to know what each finish is worth — QB10 ≈ 299 Underdog points, and Trevor Lawrence (UD QB10) already cleared it at 338. The Josh Allen opportunity-cost case (why I'll be ~6%). Then position by position — where outliers actually live:
• QB: the 30%+ guys hit rounds 4–9; solid value 2–17
• RB: top-heavy (Jonathan Taylor 48.8%) but outliers into R17 — don't fall behind
• WR: big wins early, but solid value everywhere R1–18
• TE: one outlier ever (Kelce); most value comes late — mid TE then load R12–18
Next episode: my stands & fades. Everything's on the site.
Understanding ADP: https://millymakermaniac.com/adp-study/
OG Maniac ($50/yr for life): https://millymakermaniac.com/ogmaniac/