In less than 1 hour... the most important number of 2026 drops. At 8:30 AM Eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the January CPI report. Will inflation finally break below 2.5%... confirming the soft landing? Or will we get another hot surprise?

Here's what most people don't know: 10 out of the last 11 January CPI reports have surprised to the UPSIDE. JPMorgan sees a 42% chance of a hot print. Barclays says there's meaningful upside risk.

Today's Show:

• The January Curse: Why January inflation always runs hot - the annual price reset phenomenon and residual seasonality
• What JPMorgan Is Seeing: 42.5% odds of a hotter print, but limited market reaction if it happens - the fear is priced in
• Inside The Fed's Head: A structurally dovish Fed more likely to save the labor market than fight inflation
• Powell's Swan Song: April could be his last meeting - 47% chance of a final rate cut
• What To Watch: Core services, shelter costs, tariff passthrough, car insurance and healthcare
• The Three Scenarios: Cool (face ripper rally), In-Line (yawn), Hot (contained damage)

Key Numbers:

• 2.5% — Consensus CPI forecast (lowest since May 2025)
• 10 out of 11 — January CPIs that surprised hot
• 42.5% — JPMorgan's odds of a hotter print
• 3.5-3.75% — Current Fed funds rate
• 60 bps — Rate cuts priced for 2026 (2-3 cuts)
• 50% — Odds of first cut in June
• 47% — Odds of cut at Powell's final April meeting

Key Insight:

POSITIONING matters more than PREDICTION. The market is already braced for bad news. A cool print could be the bigger surprise.

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• (00:00) - Intro
• (02:00) - Setting The Stage
• (05:00) - The January Curse
• (08:00) - What JPMorgan Is Seeing
• (10:30) - Inside The Fed's Head
• (13:00) - The Rate Cut Math
• (15:30) - What To Watch
• (18:00) - The Three Scenarios
• (21:00) - The Bigger Picture
• (23:00) - Outro