In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the profound impact of passive investing with one of the most provocative thinkers in the space—Mike Green. Mike has developed a framework that challenges traditional market assumptions, shedding light on how seemingly "passive" investment flows might be actively reshaping markets, valuations, and even systemic stability. Using clips from our interviews, Mike breaks down complex ideas with clarity, humor, and critical insight. This is a must-watch for anyone who wants to understand the hidden mechanics behind modern markets—and what they mean for your portfolio.

Topics Covered:

Why passive investors aren't truly passiveThe systemic risk behind the growth of index investingHow passive flows distort price discovery and market behavior

The QDIA effect and its unintended consequences

The breakdown of correlation between value and growth stocks

Why international markets continue to underperform

Mike's thoughts on unemployment data and the gig economy

The real lesson investors should take from all this

What individual investors can realistically do about it

In this episode, we dive deep into the fundamentals of retirement planning with one of the most respected researchers in the field—Wade Pfau. Wade is known for blending rigorous academic research with real-world financial advice. We explore his groundbreaking ideas on the 4% rule, sequence of returns risk, annuities, income frameworks, and his innovative Retirement Income Style Awareness (RISA) model. Whether you’re planning for retirement or advising others, this episode delivers valuable frameworks and perspectives you can apply immediately.

**Topics Covered:**

* Why the 4% rule is a U.S. artifact—and where it doesn’t work* The importance of sequence risk and how early retirement returns dominate long-term outcomes* Wade’s “Four Ls” of retirement planning: Lifestyle, Longevity, Liquidity, and Legacy* The limitations of fixed withdrawal strategies and the value of variable withdrawal rules* The misunderstood role of annuities and why risk pooling matters* How RISA helps investors match their personality and preferences to the right retirement strategy* The power of flexibility and focusing on what really matters in retirement

In this episode, we dive deep into some of the most thought-provoking ideas from two of the most original minds in investing: Ben Hunt and Grant Williams. Through a curated selection of powerful clips, we explore how markets have transformed from mechanisms of capital allocation to platforms of narrative and speculation. Ben and Grant challenge conventional wisdom, question the stories we tell ourselves about investing, and propose frameworks for navigating a radically different market landscape going forward. Whether it's the evolution of CEO incentives, the lifecycle of narratives, or why staying rich is harder than getting rich, this episode is packed with timeless insights.

Topics Covered:

Why what worked for 40 years may not work anymore

The market as a political utility and what that really means

The disconnection between stock prices and real businesses

How narratives shape market behavior and prices

The language of growth vs. value in investingThe CEO’s evolving role as a storytellerUsing the narrative lifecycle as an investment framework

Speculation vs. investing and how to tell the difference

How Ben Hunt applies the minimax regret framework to life decisions

In this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward.

Topics Covered:

Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymore

The impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocation

Risk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environments

The argument for real assets: real estate and commodities

An overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profile

The rise of managed futures and how they improve diversification

The psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them)

Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternatives

Cliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-taking

How to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows

In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski dive deep into the timeless investing wisdom of Guy Spier. Drawing from Spier’s interviews on both Excess Returns and Talking Billions, they explore crucial ideas about investing, risk, decision-making, and living a meaningful life. From understanding why letting your winners run can enhance returns to redefining true success, this episode is packed with practical insights for both investors and anyone seeking a richer, more thoughtful life.Topics Covered:Why holding your winners can be essential to long-term success

The myth of the Fidelity “dead investor” study and what it teachesRisk, ruin, and why preserving capital matters more than getting richLessons from multi-generational wealth and building lasting fortunesUnderstanding the true cost of tinkering with a portfolioDefining your circle of competence — and updating it over time

How to avoid catastrophic financial outcomesRethinking what success really means beyond money

Aligning your inner and outer self to find freedom and authenticity

Managing other people’s money with care, respect, and humility

Learning from mistakes and the importance of reputation

The priceless value of community and true friendships

Join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing,

Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value.

Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing.

The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics.

The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris.

Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio.

The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes.

The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.

In this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues.

This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains.

Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm.

Main Topics Covered:

Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers.

Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment.

Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved.

National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan.

DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.

In this episode, Matt and Jack dive into the timeless wisdom of Jack Schwager, renowned author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing from two insightful interviews with Schwager, they explore key lessons from some of the greatest traders he’s interviewed, like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen, and unpack how these principles apply not only to trading but also to long-term investing and life.

From risk management to overcoming failure, this episode blends Schwager’s expertise with Jack and Matt’s commentary, offering valuable takeaways for investors of all kinds.

Main Topics Covered:

Paul Tudor Jones’ approach to avoiding complacency by evaluating your portfolio as if you started it today.Steve Cohen’s strategy of cutting positions in half when uncertain to manage indecision effectively.

The commonality of early failures among top traders and the resilience needed to learn from them.

Debunking the myth that good money management can salvage a poor trading system—why edge is essential.

Jack Schwager’s personal realization that he wasn’t suited for trading and how he found his strength in curating trading wisdom.

The necessity of adapting trading strategies as markets evolve over time.

How Schwager found discretionary trading less emotionally taxing than systematic approaches.

Stanley Druckenmiller’s bold position sizing under George Soros’ influence and when to break the rules.

Joel Greenblatt’s lesson on waiting for the right opportunity rather than forcing trades.

Simplifying risk management with straightforward rules that anyone can follow.

The value investor’s dilemma of buying more as prices drop versus cutting losses.

How technology, like social media, has opened new trading strategies unavailable in the past.

Position sizing as an extension of risk management, determined by acceptable loss levels.