A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet and how Mattress Mack was doing this years before prediction markets existed. Also, Polymarket resolves a MicroStrategy Bitcoin market to No even though the sale actually happened before the deadline and Kalshi launches the American Power Index.

Then Josh (@spacemanOTH) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Josh runs a two-person betting operation focused on college football, NBA player props, and prediction market making. He breaks down how he built his team by identifying complementary skill sets at BetBash, why profiling your competitors in Survivor is just as important as picking the right team, how he thinks about toxic order flow and protecting his book as a small operation, the rookie mistake of uploading quotes in a predictable window every day, and why he took a shot on Trump in 2024.

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0:00 – NYC Bar Hedging Knicks

2:41 – Polymarket Resolves a Market Wrong

4:34 – Kalshi American Power Index

7:20 – Introducing Josh @spacemanOTH

9:52 – How Josh Built His Team

12:00 – RFQs: Free Money or a Dangerous Experiment?

16:00 – Profiling Competitors in Survivor and Market Making

23:00 – The Rookie Mistake That Cost Him

28:00 – Low-Hanging Fruit vs. Long Term Building

33:00 – Josh's Trump 2024 Bet

41:00 – Josh's Most Expensive Mistake

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