As global leaders gather in Davos later this month amid shrinking aid budgets and hardening geopolitical priorities, development finance is being recast through the language of investment – raising urgent questions about who shapes this new model, who carries the risk, and who benefits.

Development finance is entering a period of profound transition. Traditional aid models are under strain, squeezed by fiscal pressure, political fragmentation and shifting global priorities. In their place, investment-led approaches, from impact investing and blended finance to philanthropic capital and deeper private sector engagement, are gaining prominence as the future of development.

In this episode of Think Change, we examine what this shift looks like in practice. How is capital being deployed across Africa and other emerging markets? What role do micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play in translating finance into inclusive growth? And how viable is the move from grants to risk-tolerant investment in fragile and underserved contexts?

Experts discuss where impact investing is delivering real outcomes, where expectations may be overstated, and how power, incentives and accountability are shifting as development increasingly speaks the language of capital.

As Davos conversations turn towards mobilising private finance and redefining global cooperation, the episode asks whether investment genuinely deepen development, rather than simply reshaping it in the image of existing markets.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Amit Bouri, Co-Founder and CEO, Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN)
• Neil Gregory, Senior Advisor to ODI Global's Centre for Private Finance in Development
• Dorothy Nyambi, President and CEO, Mennonite Economic Development Associates (MEDA)

Related resources

• IRIS+
• Impact Principles
• Impact Investor Survey

After a year of extraordinary upheaval, this special episode looks ahead to the forces set to shape 2026. From deep aid cuts and accelerating AI to renewed geopolitical tension, political violence and humanitarian catastrophe, guests explore what a fractured global landscape means for democracy, development and the future of international cooperation.

2025 has tested the resilience of the international system. Aid budgets have been slashed, debt pressures have mounted across low-income countries, and rapid advances in artificial intelligence have outpaced political and regulatory responses. At the same time, political violence, democratic backsliding and public dissent have intensified while humanitarian crises and genocide continue to expose the limits of existing multilateral responses.

Against this backdrop, global power is fragmenting as supply chains are being reshaped, economic nationalism is on the rise, and geopolitical competition is increasingly defining how states engage with one another.

Tune in as we explore how dynamics of technological disruption, economic stress and geopolitical realignment are redefining cooperation and what realistic shifts could help strengthen global governance and collective action as we move into 2026.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Comfort Ero, CEO, Crisis Group
• Sir Vince Cable, Former Secretary of State for Business and Trade and Distinguished Fellow, ODI Global
• Dr. Urvashi Aneja, Founder, Digital Futures Lab

Related resources

• Donors In A Post-Aid World December 2025 update
• Think Change episode 61: what trends will shape 2025?
• How geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping finance for emerging markets

After one of the most challenging years for the humanitarian system, Sudan offers both a stark warning and a source of new thinking. This episode of Think Change examines how local actors are reshaping aid around solidarity, dignity and community leadership.

Sudan’s crisis is unfolding at an extraordinarily difficult moment. Since violence escalated in April 2023, state institutions have collapsed, essential services have disappeared and millions have been displaced. Yet despite the scale of suffering, the conflict has remained one of the world’s least visible, receiving minimal political attention and limited media coverage.

But as formal systems fell away, communities themselves stepped forward. Mutual aid networks – most prominently the Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) – have grown out of Sudan’s long history of neighbourhood organising and now play a central role in protecting civilians, coordinating life-saving assistance and sustaining basic services. Operating as volunteers with scarce resources, they have become the only functioning governance structures in many areas.

At the same time, global recognition of their efforts is growing. The ERRs’ innovation and courage have earned nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize in both 2024 and 2025, highlighting not only the impact of their work but also the larger challenge they pose to international actors: to reconsider power, legitimacy and the role of civic leadership when states can no longer function.

With Sudan’s future hanging in the balance, the questions are urgent. What does genuine locally led leadership look like in a moment of institutional collapse? How can global actors support community-driven resilience without undermining it? And what might the ERRs’ example mean for the future of humanitarian action worldwide?

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Al Sanosi Adam, Representative from the Emergency Response Rooms
• Luka Biong Deng, Member of the National Liberation Council of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)
• Denise Brown, United Nations Resident Coordinator in Sudan
• Freddie Carver, Director, Humanitarian Policy Group, ODI Global

Related resources

• From 'ego-systems' to 'ecosystems': renewing humanitarian action (Publication, ODI Global)
• ODI Global and NEAR's advisory panel on the future of humanitarian action
• ODI Global's Sudan resources hub