"The TACO thesis is firmly embedded in markets"
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"The TACO thesis is firmly embedded in markets"
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The morning after US president Donald Trump reversed gears in Davos and (temporarily) dropped the US claim to Greenland, Medley Advisors held their weekly meeting to discuss policymaking and markets.
"For me, the surprise was just how little markets actually reacted to this," said Dan Schwarz, the head of macro markets. "The TACO thesis is firmly embedded in markets at this point". The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had been coasting at 15 before Trump combined a Greenland acquisition with punitive tariffs on eight European countries and jumped to 20 - "a level you typically see in stressed markets, not even distressed markets," he added. "In terms of intensity and on a scale of one to five, if the tariff incident was a five ... this is like a two, maybe a three".
The speakers, in order, are Tim Jones, Brian Jackson, Pepijn Bergsen, Dan Schwartz and Mario Lima.