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The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

著者： Cate Bakos David Johnston and Mike Mortlock
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 Formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor, our show rebranded in 2023 to The Property Trio.

Residential property is the only asset class we live in, it is where we raise our families, and it is our most expensive investment, yet property advice remains unregulated. Our objective is to educate time-poor professionals through deep insights from our experts who have provided thousands of Australians with personalised advice and education spanning two decades. In a climate where we are overloaded with information and one size fits all recommendations from the media, well-meaning friends and family and so-called advisers, we will distill the raw truth from the ill-informed.

So join the Property Planner, David Johnston, The Property Buyer, Cate Bakos and the Quantity Surveyor, Mike Mortlock as they take you on a journey of discovery through the maze of property, mortgage, and money decisions to empower you to create your ideal lifestyle!



Links to your hosts:
https://www.catebakos.com.au/
https://propertyplanning.com.au/
https://www.mcgqs.com.au/

Copyright The Property Trio 個人ファイナンス 経済学
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  • #314: Market Update May 2025 – Darwin Powers On, Melbourne Recovery Continues, All Capitals Rising, Listings & Investor Trends Signal Shift

    #314: Market Update May 2025 – Darwin Powers On, Melbourne Recovery Continues, All Capitals Rising, Listings & Investor Trends Signal Shift
    2025/06/16
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    This week, Dave, Mike and Cate tackle the May data. Darwin continues to perform strongly, but Cate eludes to the contrasting data across various data houses. Data integrity and varying methodologies of collecting and collating data may be the source of the issue. The Trio delve into the reliability and variability of data. Could off-market transactions explain the differential? Or is it something more?Hedonic indices and algorithms are another consideration... perhaps a great future episode for the Trio to unpack.

    The revised past month's data provided in the new Cotality reports are interesting too. The Trio reflect on the transparency provided as one data house formalises trends a month on.

    Mike notes that every single capital city delivered growth in the month of May, and the change in dwelling values since last peak is intriguing for those cities which haven't caught up with their last peak.

    Dave steps through the monthly pace of rent for the capital cities. From seasonality to increased supply, the Trio consider the drivers of this recent change in the majority of capital cities. But what's happening in Darwin and Hobart? And why is the rental data so misaligned for houses versus units? Tune in to find out.

    And the Trio tackle some of the counter-intuitive reasons why rental prices are rising in cities like Darwin.

    Mike sets a challenge... can we pick the bottom of the market by referencing the listings data? Combining new listings, all listings, 'old listings' and distressed listings tell us a lot, but without a heavier weight of data points, it is difficult to rely on listing figures in smaller markets like Hobart and Darwin.

    Cate described the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index as anaemic this month. Considering the current global unrest, talk of interest rate cuts and sharemarket uncertainty, the chat isn't what was anticipated. "This chart didn't dance around like I expected it to."

    Major household items recorded the largest change for the month, and Australian household's saving rate goes hand in hand with this figure. The increase of the household savings ratio (5.2%) suggests that additional earnings, (and/or lower interest rates and reduced inflation) is flowing through to households.

    Lending data suggests investor activity has increased in the last year, (citing the March quarter 2024 to 2025).

    In the Northern Territory in particular, investors are spending more. Are they pushing prices higher with greater competition, or are they targeting better quality houses than previous investors have been?

    Bond yields have tracked back, and Dave suggests that global uncertainty, tariffs and the inconsistency in the US administration.

    Unemployment figures have surprised more than a few people too, considering some of the narrative and predictions we've had previously about the likely direction of our employment figures.

    Lastly, Cate marvels at the change in some of our GDP figures since the woes of post-COVID supply chain issues.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/06/16/ep-314-may-2025-market-update/
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    49 分
  • #313: The History of Property Prices Following Interest Rate Cuts – 40 Years of Data, Houses vs Units, Capitals vs Regions & Predictions

    #313: The History of Property Prices Following Interest Rate Cuts – 40 Years of Data, Houses vs Units, Capitals vs Regions & Predictions
    2025/06/09
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    🎙️ Welcome to another dynamic episode of The Property Trio!
    Cate, Dave, and Mike reunite to unpack a hot question on many investors’ minds: Are we on the cusp of Australia’s next housing boom? Cate kicks things off by outlining seven key economic signals that are all pointing in the same direction — from falling interest rates to rising rents and tight supply. Whether you're already in the market or still on the sidelines, this episode is one you can’t afford to miss!

    📉 Falling rates = rising prices?
    Dave dives into a powerful piece of research by Peter Munckton from Bank of Queensland. He shares compelling data showing that historically, when interest rates fall, property prices tend to rise — and often by more than 10% in the following two years. Mike adds that while we may not see pandemic-style booms, the signs are certainly leaning bullish.

    🏘️ What’s different this time?
    Unlike previous booms fueled by deregulation or pandemic stimulus, this cycle is driven by low supply and strong demand. Dave highlights sobering ABS figures — with only 180,000 dwellings approved in the past year, we’re well below the build rates needed to meet population growth or the government's ambitious targets.

    👶 First home buyers charging in
    The team explores the expanded First Home Guarantee scheme. With caps removed and eligibility widened, it’s already creating ripples — especially in the lower quartile of the market. But will it cause a price surge? Economists are split, with some warning that the policy could backfire by fuelling early price growth.

    🏡 Houses vs Units: Can the gap close?
    Dave notes that since 2020, house prices have doubled unit growth. But with affordability stretched and units offering better yields, could we see a swing back? The team debates whether apartments are due for a renaissance — particularly for price-conscious buyers.

    🌆 Capital cities ready to rebound?
    Regional Australia boomed post-pandemic, but now the spotlight could return to the capitals... or could it? Historical data suggests a cyclical pattern, and many capitals like Melbourne, Hobart and Darwin appear undervalued. Dave sees Melbourne as the sleeper, with 2026 poised to be its breakout year. Hobart and Canberra also show strong rebound potential.

    📈 Mid-year prediction updates
    Cate, Dave and Mike revisit their 2025 forecasts. Dave supports 4.5% growth nationally by year’s end — and flags 2026 as the potential double-digit boom year. Cate and Mike still expect a solid 2025, but with more moderate growth compared to previous boom cycles.

    .... and our gold nuggets!

    David Johnston's gold nugget: 2025 is shaping up as a better window of opportunity. Borrowing power has improved... but Dave believes 2026 could be an even stronger year for property price growth.

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Are we heading towards a boom? Mike steps through the other capitals and he tends to agree with Dave.

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate focuses on the history of booms and busts and talks about the historical magnitude of each. Standing back and looking longer term, long-term active investors will have a different level of sensitivity about market movement.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/06/09/housing-boom/
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    51 分
  • #312: Why Social Housing Supply Can’t Keep Up - Exploring the Causes, Consequences & Potential Solutions to Australia’s Housing Shortfall

    #312: Why Social Housing Supply Can’t Keep Up - Exploring the Causes, Consequences & Potential Solutions to Australia’s Housing Shortfall
    2025/06/02
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    🏘️ What is Social Housing?
    This week, The Trio unpack social housing — subsidised accommodation aimed at vulnerable Australians. Social housing includes both public housing (state-managed) and community housing (run by not-for-profits). Unlike private rentals, it’s allocated based on need, not market competition, and supports those on low incomes, often dealing with complex challenges like homelessness or family violence.

    🚨 Crisis Accommodation vs. Social Housing
    Cate draws a clear line between crisis accommodation — short-term emergency shelters — and longer-term social housing. Crisis services, often provided by groups like The Salvation Army and Mission Australia, offer additional safety nets with added support services such as counselling and case management.

    💸 How Rents Are Set
    Rent in public housing is typically capped at 25–30% of assessable household income. Rebates are applied to keep rent affordable, based on wage income and benefits. Mike adds that in community housing, Commonwealth Rent Assistance is also factored in, and providers usually charge under 75% of market rent to remain GST-exempt.

    🏠 Affordable vs. Social Housing
    Dave and Cate address the often-blurred lines between affordable housing and social housing. While affordable housing lacks a universal definition in Australia, it usually refers to pricing that’s lower than the market or tied to a percentage of income, and can include both rentals and home ownership. 📉 A Shrinking Share of Housing

    Cate points out that social housing now makes up just 4% of all housing in Australia — a figure unchanged since the 1990s despite population growth. Over 170,000 households are currently on waiting lists, some facing years-long delays. Meanwhile, ageing and abandoned stock is going unused. Cate cites two specific examples in Knoxfield and Ballarat.

    📊 Demand Far Outpaces Supply
    Mike estimates over 565,000 households either live in or are waiting for social housing. Projections suggest that by 2037, Australia may need over 1.1 million social dwellings — far exceeding current policy commitments.

    🌍 International Comparisons
    The Trio compares Australia’s performance globally. At just 4.4%, we lag behind the OECD average (6.9%) and trail countries like the UK (17%) and the Netherlands (34%). The message is clear: more investment and smarter policy are urgently needed.


    ... and our gold nuggets!

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Considering the COVID response and how the Federal government worked with the states... we need to have a national cabinet again to address this issue.

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: "We need a bi-partisan approach!"

    David Johnston's gold nugget: Setting up a bi-partisan model, (an independent body that is not actually political) is a first start. Dave's three point plan highlighted some of the challenges that need to be addressed with this enormous, and important task.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/06/02/social-housing/
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    46 分

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