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  • The Probability Desk — 2026-05-29: The Reopening Trade

    The Probability Desk — 2026-05-29: The Reopening Trade
    2026/05/29

    The daily intelligence briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital.

    Full brief and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com
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    10 分
  • The Probability Desk — May 27: How long should capital plan for a closed Strait?

    The Probability Desk — May 27: How long should capital plan for a closed Strait?
    2026/05/27

    The UAE has left OPEC and the Strait of Hormuz is trading on disruption pricing. The Probability Desk weights three paths through Q3 — base case 55%, upside 30%, tail 15% — and reads out the second-order effects and the repricing for sovereign funds, pensions, insurers and family offices.

    Full brief and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com
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    7 分
  • The Closed Strait: How Long Should Capital Plan for a Disrupted Hormuz? (Probability Desk Flagship)

    The Closed Strait: How Long Should Capital Plan for a Disrupted Hormuz? (Probability Desk Flagship)
    2026/05/27
    A Probability Desk flagship report. The UAE has left OPEC and the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted for months. We walk through the base rates, a Bayesian probability model, and a real 50,000-path Monte Carlo to ask how long capital should plan for a disrupted Strait — and what reprices for a universal owner. Read the full report and download the PDF: https://www.universalassetowners.com/strait-of-hormuz-shock-2026/ . Editorial scenario analysis only — not investment, actuarial, or geopolitical advice.
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    8 分