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What happens when you apply machine learning and rigorous data analysis to the "Wild West" of American campaign finance? In this episode of No Reason to Get Excited (NRTGE), Dr. Aaron Winkler sits down with Andrew Myers, a PhD candidate at Stanford University and incoming Assistant Professor at MIT, to pull back the curtain on how money, media, and institutional rules shape our democracy.

From the surprising ways donors "punish" extremist candidates to the hidden consequences of term limits, Andrew shares insights from his dissertation that challenge standard political assumptions. Along the way, Aaron draws fascinating parallels between the circulatory system of the human body and the systematic flow of modern civilization.

About the Guest

Andrew Myers is a political scientist and PhD candidate at Stanford University specializing in American politics and political methodology. His research focuses on polarization in legislatures, campaign finance, and election administration. After completing a fellowship at the Hoover Institution, he will join the faculty at MIT as an Assistant Professor.

Connect with Andrew

Website: www.andrewcwmyers.com

Chapters

00:00 – The "Block Power" of Parliamentary Systems
02:00 – Meet Andrew Myers: From Stanford to MIT
04:00 – The Role of Money: Analyzing Citizens United and Direct Contributions
07:20 – Machine Learning in Politics: Mapping Contributions to Voting Records
12:20 – Why "Coin Flip" Elections are a Social Scientist's Dream
15:15 – Aaron’s Lessons from the Obama 2004 Senate Campaign
22:10 – The "Uncontested" Victory: How Obama Won His First Election
33:00 – The Press Coverage Problem: Why Down-Ballot Races Suffer in the Dark
40:00 – Conclusion #1: Do Donors Punish Extremists?
41:30 – Conclusion #2: How Strengthening Local Press Moderates Legislatures
48:00 – Access-Seeking vs. Ideological Donors
53:00 – "Why Is There So Little Money in Politics?"
58:00 – The Chipping Away of Campaign Finance Reform
1:01:00 – The Lack of Competition in State Legislatures
1:06:00 – The Dark Side of Term Limits: Why They May Actually Increase Polarization
1:09:00 – Redistricting and Strategic Residing
1:31:00 – "Dialing for Dollars": The Fundraising Quotas of New Representatives
1:38:00 – The Body Politic: O’Hare Airport as a Heart and the ATP Synthase of Cities
1:46:00 – Blood Pressure and Political Compromise: The Kidney-Lung Connection

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Connect with Dr. Aaron Winkler

• Website: www.aaronwinklermd.com
• LinkedIn: @NRTGEPOD
• Instagram @NRTGEPOD