Two weeks ago Abdul El-Sayed was trading at 93 cents to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. He's now at 63. Jacob and Garth break down what changed: McMorrow's exit turned it into a clean head-to-head, a fresh Tavern Research poll has Stevens up a point (a statistical tie), and the outside money keeps pouring in. Is the progressive wave that swept New York and Colorado finally hitting resistance, or do the August 4 demographics still favor El-Sayed? Plus the trade the guys made from 6 cents and why they're saying take the profit now.

Then: the Iran escalation is pushing gas toward $4 a gallon, and why that makes the House market (Democrats at 77 cents) Jacob's biggest buy of the day. Florida's wide-open governor primary and the AI-generated Fishback ad. Schumer stepping back from the Maine replacement fight. And a tangent on why the deepest political benches always seem to belong to the teams that keep losing.

Market reads inside: Michigan, the House, and Senate control.

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#Michigan #Senate2026 #PredictionMarkets

The Senate map just got scrambled in a single week. Graham Platner's Maine campaign implodes after a sexual assault allegation, and nearly every Democrat who backed him is now calling for him to step aside before the July 13 deadline. Jacob and Garth break down who replaces him (Troy Jackson? Janet Mills?) and whether Susan Collins is now the safest incumbent on the board.

Then: Michigan tightens dramatically after McMorrow drops out, with a fresh poll showing El-Sayed and Stevens nearly tied heading into the August 4 primary. Plus the Mitch McConnell health mystery and what a Kentucky opening could mean for control of the chamber, Ken Paxton spending July 4th in London, and why the World Cup turned into a political headache for Trump.

All the market reads inside: where PredictIt traders have Maine, Michigan, and Senate control right now.

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#Senate2026 #Platner #PredictionMarkets

It's a full Senate polling roundup — every race that matters, poll by poll, checked against where PredictIt traders actually have the money.

Texas is a dead heat: Paxton and Talarico tied 47-47 in the NYT/Siena poll, with real signs of Paxton weakness under the surface. Maine tells a different story — Collins holds a steady edge while Platner's campaign gets buried under a staggering outside-money gap ($4.3M vs $440K in a five-day span). Michigan's Democratic primary is effectively over, with El-Sayed running away and traders having already called it. Plus, a Florida poll that traders think is flat-out fake, the generic ballot tightening toward Republicans, and why Jacob likes buying Republican on the Senate control market right now.

Then: Garth's case that the smartest Democratic play heading into August is to get out of the way and let Trump be Trump.

Chapters:

00:00 Colorado results and the anti-incumbent wave

06:30 SCOTUS: Alito retirement watch + FECA caps overturned

15:40 Texas Senate: Paxton vs. Talarico (dead heat)

22:45 Maine: Collins vs. Platner and the money bomb

30:20 Michigan: El-Sayed, Stevens, McMorrow

35:00 Generic ballot + the Senate control market read

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#Senate2026 #Polling #PredictionMarkets