Jason Lisk breaks down Circa Survivor Week 15 using PoolGenius tools to understand how the contest has shifted with only 10 entries remaining — and why strategy now revolves around opponent behavior, expected value, and identifying true leverage.

He recaps the chaos of Week 15, explains why several underdogs became high-value plays, and walks through how expected value helped these entries reach this stage of the season.

Jason then projects how many potential winners the contest may realistically produce and which teams are shaping up to be the most popular options in Week 15.

A complete strategy guide to winning College Bowl Pick’em and Spread Pools during the 2025–26 bowl season.

Jason Lisk and Spencer Limbach break down how bowl pool formats, the bowl schedule, and public behavior shape optimal strategy, while introducing PoolGenius’ Bowl Pick’em Tool and how it helps players identify value on favorites and underdogs throughout the bowl season.

Whether you’re playing in a casual bowl pick’em with friends or a larger spread pool, this episode shows how to adjust strategy based on format, avoid common bowl-pool mistakes, and take advantage of the unique dynamics of the college bowl schedule.

The guys are back with their top three NFL upset picks for Week 15...and why each one is live.

This includes:

1) An underdog coming off a devastating loss

2) A small underdog going against a division rival

3) The model's favorite underdog