Peter Schiff on the fake jobs beat, Trump's trade ultimatum, yields at 2007 highs, a 162% tariff bill, and why the Fed is the last buyer.

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The government says 162,000 jobs is a boom. Peter Schiff says it's a miss, and the bond market agrees.

The August jobs report came in at 162,000 against a 55,000 consensus, and Peter Schiff walks through why the number is worse than it looks. The birth-death model supplied 74,000 of those jobs, 45% of the total, on the assumption that new businesses were hiring. More than a third of the rest were waiters and bartenders. JOLTS and ADP both pointed the other way, last month was revised down, and real wages are falling. Kevin Hassett called it a boom; by most measures the economy is weaker than the day Trump took over.

Then Trump raised the stakes. He declared that America deserves the lowest interest rates in the world, then threatened to terminate all trade with any surplus country if the Fed doesn't cut. Peter's answer: the United States has never been a worse credit risk than it is right now. The 10-year hit 4.81% and the 30-year 5.28%, the highest since 2007. Japan has sold its Treasury holdings down from $1.3 trillion to $1.1 trillion, everyone who was buying is now selling, and the Fed will end up the buyer of last resort, which means inflation.

Peter also covers the week's real data: the July trade deficit at $88.6 billion, the biggest since March 2025; the $283 part that cost him 162% of the tariff once FedEx added its fee; diesel at a record above $5.80; Lutnick on semiconductors and Bastiat's candlemakers; Waller's rate comments sending gold back above $4,400; and an update on TGold's coming gold debit and credit cards.

Chapters:

00:00 No Buyers Left

00:29 Back In Puerto Rico

00:47 Jobs Report Miss

05:36 Real Wages Falling

06:09 Waiters And Bartenders

08:00 JOLTS ADP Contradiction

09:10 Birth Death Model

10:23 Hassett Boom Claim

13:27 Trump Rate Demands

15:20 Worst Credit Risk Ever

17:24 Trump Trade Ultimatum

24:07 Bessent Kudlow Interview

27:27 Yields Hit 2007 Highs

28:24 Yen And Japan Selling

31:14 Oil Diesel Record

33:15 Stocks Gold Silver

39:16 Trade Deficit Widens

42:02 My 162% Tariff Bill

45:37 Lutnick Semiconductors

48:33 Bastiat Candlemakers

51:08 Waller Rate Comments

53:39 Gold Pullback Gift

54:03 TGold Cards Update

1:00:24 Bitcoin And EuroPac

1:02:12 Labor Day Sign Off

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Warsh talks tough, buybacks double, a military option surfaces, gold falls $140, and boat prices collapse 50%.

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The Treasury doubled its bond buybacks this week. Then the talk turned to a military option for yields.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spent his most anticipated speech of the year talking tough about inflation, and Peter Schiff explains why none of it matters. Warsh accepted responsibility for 65 straight months above the 2% target, then never once mentioned the $40 trillion national debt or the Treasury intervention running underneath him. Money supply is expanding at roughly 6% annualized since he took the job. He is talking about putting out the fire while pouring the gasoline.

Underneath the speech, the policy escalated. Treasury buybacks already doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion, with roughly a trillion in the general fund available to extend them, shortening the average maturity of the debt and leaving the government more exposed to the rate hikes markets are now pricing. And in a Fox News interview on that same intervention, a military option for lowering bond yields was raised.

Peter also covers the week's real data: gold down $140, silver reversing from nearly $71, a Chicago PMI collapse to 47.1 that was the biggest downside miss in eleven years, and a boat market where prices have fallen 50% and lenders are taking the keys, a Fed-made boom and bust he argues housing is about to repeat.

Chapters:

00:00 Inflation Firestorm

00:37 Boatcast Setup

01:02 Warsh Speech Breakdown

04:12 Debt And Twist Ignored

08:10 Forward Guidance Critique

11:19 Dual Mandate Tradeoffs

12:46 Money Supply Matters

13:56 Hawkish Talk And Markets

18:50 Trump Military Option

20:01 Canada Tariffs Fallout

27:53 Market Wrap Gold Bitcoin

31:46 Strategy Dilution Spiral

32:42 Dollar Yen Bonds Warning

34:11 Manufacturing Digital Shift

39:03 Boating Bubble Bust

45:28 Boat Costs Force Selling

48:13 West Marine Bankruptcy

53:02 Buyer Market Repos Risk

56:30 Boat Ownership Reality

57:09 Closing Politics Plug

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#BondMarket #FederalReserve

Peter Schiff breaks down the Treasury's panic move to rescue the bond market, the $40 trillion debt milestone, and gold's $185 reversal day.

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The Treasury just doubled its bond buybacks. Peter Schiff says that's the government admitting the bond market is broken.

On the same day the national debt topped $40 trillion, the Treasury announced it is doubling its long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion... buying the bonds everybody else is selling, and funding it by issuing more short-term debt. Peter calls it what it is: a panic move, a Hail Mary to suppress rising yields after the 30-year hit 5.3%, its highest in over 19 years. Refinancing debt locked in at a 3.44% average coupon with 4% T-bills makes no financial sense, which is exactly why it's happening... the government is scared, not stupid.

The market rendered its verdict immediately. Gold reversed off a $185 rally to close above $4,500, silver cleared $66, and the miners surged 8-12%, while hawkish FOMC minutes were shrugged off entirely. Peter explains why this Treasury version of Operation Twist forces the Fed to follow with real QE... a program that will have to dwarf 2008's... why Bitcoin's pop above $70,000 is built on hope, and why the housing data shows the panic is justified.

Chapters:

00:00 Treasury Panic Move

01:05 Bond Yields Hit New Highs

02:58 Debt Explosion Politics

07:00 Treasury Buyback Twist

10:23 QE Next And Fed Cornered

16:04 Hawkish Minutes Gold Surge

24:03 Markets React Unevenly

24:20 Dollar Drops Oil Jumps

25:08 Fed Inflation Bind

26:30 Debt Era Comparison

27:40 Jobs Data Media Spin

29:17 Bitcoin Versus Metals

31:19 Housing Slump Mortgages

33:59 Tariffs Canada Trade

37:50 Buybacks Won't Work

42:26 QE Addiction Ahead

44:34 Boat Update Farewell

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Peter Schiff on plunging retail sales, sticky inflation, the Fed's stealth QE, and why the world is now leaving the dollar standard.

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Retail sales just plunged, producer prices are still rising, and the Fed is quietly expanding its balance sheet again.

The July data tells the story the markets keep ignoring. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent, the biggest drop in over a year, and since those numbers are not adjusted for inflation, real spending fell even further. Consumer sentiment sank to 51 as households braced for 4.3 percent inflation, more than double the Fed's 2 percent target. Producer prices rose 4.7 percent year over year, and instead of rallying on the weak data, the bond market sold off to its lowest weekly close of the year, with the 30-year at 5.27 percent. Meanwhile the Fed expanded its balance sheet by more than 21 billion dollars in two weeks, with the national debt about 80 billion dollars away from 40 trillion.

Peter marks 55 years since Nixon closed the gold window and calls it what it was: a 100 percent default on America's creditors. His father Irwin testified against removing gold backing in 1968, and the 1970s proved him right. Now the sequel is underway. The world is going off the dollar standard the way America went off gold, and the next leg down in the American standard of living has already started. Gold near 4,400 dollars and silver above 66 are the market's verdict.

Chapters:

00:00 Middle Class Squeeze

01:01 PPI Breakdown

04:08 Fed Balance Sheet Surge

05:23 Stagflation Signals

08:28 Bond Market Warning

11:39 Greenspan and 1987 Echoes

14:48 Stocks vs Bonds Diverge

15:33 Gold Shines Bitcoin Slips

18:16 Bitcoin Bear Case

21:08 Iran Sanctions and Oil

26:30 Nixon Gold Standard Legacy

28:52 Inflation Math Reality

29:30 Video Plug Fiat Failure

30:19 Electric Catamaran Tour

34:30 Cruising Plans Tax Credit

37:02 Gold Standard Break Explained

48:09 Dollar Standard Ending

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#Stagflation #Inflation

A record $432B July deficit, $40 trillion in debt days away, gold above $4,400... last week's fireworks were just the opening act.

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The CPI came in tame. Hours later the Treasury reported a $432 billion July deficit... the worst single month in US history.

Peter breaks down why the benign 0.1% July CPI is an accounting illusion: the BLS compares monthly averages, so June's oil collapse masked July's crude rebound, and August is set up to run hot. The real inflation news came later that day from the Treasury: a record $432 billion July deficit, $1.8 trillion in just ten months, and a national debt now less than $150 billion from $40 trillion. Bigger deficits mean more pressure on the Fed to choose inflation, which is exactly why the bond market refused to rally on the "good" CPI number.

Gold holds above $4,400 and silver above $65 as heavy Asian buying signals the de-dollarization trade is back on, while Bitcoin sits dead at $63,500 and misses the entire rally. Peter also covers the yen back above 159 and the Fed's swap-line backdoor QE for Japan, both parties drifting left after the latest primaries, Trump family corruption from Truth Social premium access to Barron's $150 million, and the Iran endgame: no deal, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and a president claiming victory in a war America clearly lost.

Chapters:

00:00 Inflation Signals Not Prices

01:22 CPI Print And Market Bets

04:24 CPI Math Masks Energy Surge

10:37 Deficits The Real Inflation Driver

19:54 Gold Surge Debt And Yen QE

31:09 Radical Left Wins Primaries

32:00 Both Parties Shift Left

34:17 Trump Corruption Claims

37:51 Bitcoin Stalls vs Gold

44:13 Iran War Reality Check

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Peter Schiff breaks down July's negative jobs report, Japan's yen crisis, and the Fed's stealth QE bailout as gold and silver surge.

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Recording from his boat in Rhode Island, Peter Schiff covers a week that vindicated his forecasts. The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, with prior months revised down another 105,000 and labor force participation falling to 61.4%, a level unseen outside COVID lockdowns in 50 years. Full-time jobs have declined in six of the last seven months while wages lag inflation, confirming the stagflation Peter has long warned about. The bigger story is Japan: with the yen at a 40-year low and JGB yields at record highs, the US executed its first yen intervention since 1998, roughly ten times larger, using euros instead of dollars and blindsiding the ECB. The Fed also took Japan's Treasuries via repo and printed the dollars, a stealth form of quantitative easing that contradicts its inflation-fighting rhetoric. Markets got the message: gold jumped 7.8% to 4,341, silver surged 12.3% to 63.46 after holding above the old $50 ceiling, and GDX rocketed 22% in one week, all far outpacing Bitcoin's 3.7% gain. Peter argues the intervention is just the beginning, the Fed will not hike before the midterms, and a currency and sovereign debt crisis is approaching. He urges listeners to prepare with gold, silver, miners, and foreign stocks, and to understand the coming crisis is caused by government, not capitalism.

Chapters:

00:00 Fed Japan Bond Backstop

01:11 Back At Sea Intro

01:59 Week Ahead Jobs Japan

03:23 Stocks Metals Surge

06:23 Bitcoin Strategy Warning

09:15 Bonds Dollar Fed Odds

14:00 July Jobs Shock

15:33 Revisions Participation Drop

19:51 Wages Inflation Stagflation

24:09 Trump Ballroom Rant

26:49 Japan Crisis Tease

29:24 Japan Yen Breakdown

31:30 Debt Trap And Rates

32:23 Treasury Selling Threat

34:35 Fed And BOJ Coordination

36:08 Swap Line QE Explained

41:15 Euro Intervention Twist

44:29 Inflation Signals And Metals

47:51 Storm Warning Ahead

49:18 Blame Government Not Markets

52:07 Prepare And Spread The Word

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The Fed talked tough and did nothing. The 30-year hit a 20-year high. The Dow fell 1,100 points. Gold was the only thing left standing.

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The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly where they were before Kevin Warsh took over, despite a 30% market-priced chance of a hike and three FOMC members dissenting in favor of one. Peter Schiff breaks down a press conference where Warsh declared "no tolerance" for inflation above 2% while doing nothing about it, hiding behind the excuse that the Fed "doesn't have a magic wand." Nobody asked for magic, just for the Fed to use the tools it actually has: higher rates, a smaller balance sheet, slower money supply growth. Warsh delivered none of them, and Schiff argues he made the same choice as his predecessors. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed chose it again.

The markets rendered their verdict immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.22%, its highest in roughly 20 years, the Dow fell 2.2% or about 1,100 points to close on the lows, and the Nasdaq 100 is now down over 3% on the week as the air keeps coming out of the AI bubble, with Meta down 10% after missing earnings and SanDisk off 30% in three days. Gold told the real story: it closed up $40 at 4,070 and never broke 4,000, because rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are bullish for gold, not bearish. Schiff calls gold the last safe haven standing. He also covers consumer confidence at a five-year low, a $101.5 billion June trade deficit proving the tariffs accomplished nothing, and why Mamdani's government-run grocery stores will empty shelves, bankrupt private grocers in the poorest neighborhoods, and recreate Soviet bread lines in New York City.

Chapters:

00:00 Debt Bubble Reality

00:37 Fed Holds Rates Steady

03:34 Two Percent Target Doubts

16:05 Q&A Exposes Inaction

27:38 Markets React Bonds Stocks Gold

31:45 Yields and Gold Misread

35:02 Gold Safe Haven Case

37:40 Fed Fallout and Data

43:12 NYC Government Grocers

55:42 Capitalism and Wrap Up

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The yen just hit a 40-year low and Japan is trapped. Whether they hike or freeze, it ends the same way: the pin that pricks our bubble.

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Investors are far too complacent about risks that are now hiding in plain sight. The AI trade cracked this week: Alphabet fell 10% after announcing even higher CapEx, Oracle is down 41% on the year, Meta and Amazon fell, and Microsoft is nearly in a bear market. SpaceX now trades 49% below its post-IPO high with its float set to jump from 5% to 40% by year end, and Tesla dropped 18%, costing Elon Musk nearly $100 billion in a week. Peter Schiff compares the roughly three-quarters of a trillion dollars in annual AI CapEx to the dot-com build-out, where the early favorites went bankrupt and took their vendors down with them.

The bigger danger is Japan. The yen fell to a 40-year low against the dollar, the 30-year JGB yield hit an all-time high near 4%, and with debt above 200% of GDP and a policy rate still at just 1%, Japan is trapped. Whether the Bank of Japan finally hikes aggressively or stays timid, the result spills into the United States, potentially forcing the world's largest holder of US Treasuries to dump its $1.1 trillion position. Schiff calls Japan the pin that pricks the far bigger US bubble. Meanwhile the US 30-year yield hit a 20-year high of 5.16% on more than four times the debt of 2006, oil is up 30% in July guaranteeing a hotter CPI, and gold rose on the week even as bonds and stocks fell, with the miners signaling a bottom. He closes on why record-low jobless claims are meaningless in a gig economy and why Trump's new slave-labor tariffs are an unconstitutional tax on Americans.

Chapters:

00:00 Japan Sparks US Crisis

00:41 AI CapEx Reality Check

07:51 AI Bubble Parallels

13:03 Gold Miners Rebound

19:17 Oil Bonds Warning Signs

32:16 Japan Debt Rate Trap

34:36 Weak Yen Trade Deficits

37:22 Japan Creditor Status Slips

41:22 Two Japan Crisis Paths

44:26 US Vulnerability Dominoes

45:21 Unemployment Claims Hype

47:20 Why Claims Mislead

51:37 New Tariffs Legal Workaround

59:03 Wrap Up Subscribe Call

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#PeterSchiffShow #gold #inflation