The element of luck in #poker means that weak players can having winning sessions and strong ones can go on extended downswings. One can argue that this variance is necessary for the game to survive at all, since without it donators would quickly drop the game.

Appreciating how extreme poker variance can be is important for two reasons. First, understanding that downswings are a feature of the game helps us survive psychologically. Second, quantifying how big downswings can be is essential for exercising proper bankroll management.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction: Live Poker Variance & Win Rates
0:30 Can You Win 12 Months Straight?
1:25 The Sample Size Problem in Live Poker
2:32 Why Live Win-Rates Are Over-Reported
4:03 Small-Stakes Win-Rate Estimates (1/2 & 1/3)
6:03 High-Stakes Reality Check (10/20+)
7:07 Three Win-Rate Scenarios: 40bb, 20bb, 6bb/100
8:44 Understanding Standard Deviation
9:30 40bb/100 Winner: Monthly Variance Analysis
12:42 20bb/100 Winner: Expect Breakeven Months
14:38 6bb/100 Winner: The Harsh Reality
16:34 Key Takeaways & Bankroll Management
20:29 Final Thoughts on Life Roll & BRM

RELATED LINKS

· **NEW** The Low-Stakes Poker Playbook: https://redchippoker.com/low-stakes-poker-playbook/

· Poker Bankroll Management: https://www.splitsuit.com/how-much-poker-money-do-you-need-to-play

· Live Poker Analysis: https://youtu.be/06gOgEchrqM?si=eDSpZ5jHAJtzLiBy

· Bankroll Management & Taking Shots: https://youtu.be/1nDFMAouLFM?si=zam69b6KhXR23c8p

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The block bet is a play from the pre-solver era of #poker which many players view with suspicion. Making a small bet in the hope of avoiding a much larger one from an opponent certainly lacks a firm theoretical basis.

Like many classic plays, however, modern theory reveals that there is a place for the block bet in today's game. While the rationale is rather different, the old block bet has experienced a renaissance as part of the "micro-bet metagame."

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction: What is a Block Bet?
0:40 The Classic Block Bet Explained
1:21 Why Block Bets Lack Mathematical Basis
2:52 Block Bets vs Thin Value Bets
4:12 How Solvers Actually Use Small River Bets
7:09 The Modern Block Bet Resurgence
8:53 Why "Blocking" is Flawed Terminology
9:34 Better Alternatives: Micro Bets & Under Bets
11:30 The Micro-Bet River Metagame
12:15 How to Exploit Small River Bets
15:30 Raising Against Micro Bets
16:44 Advanced Meta Game Adjustments
18:50 Key Takeaways & Final Thoughts

RELATED LINKS

· **NEW** The Low-Stakes Poker Playbook: https://redchippoker.com/low-stakes-poker-playbook/

· Consistent Thinking When Betting: https://www.splitsuit.com/consistent-thinking-when-betting

· The Exploitative Edge (Book): https://redchippoker.com/the-exploitative-edge

· The Most Simple Bet Sizing Framework: https://youtu.be/FqNT_2c3O8g?si=9y2q2WPrcVTzCJZX

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Much of modern #poker strategy revolves around the battle between poker ranges; our own and that of our opponent. But is ranging always the best approach to reaching a decision, particularly since our opponent's range is at best a guess.

In this podcast episode, coach w34z3l looks at strategies that largely ignore traditional ranging. These data-driven approaches are based on how our opponents play in reality, rather than some theoretical abstraction. Ranging still has its place, but consistent poker winners need these additional weapons.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction: Ranging Rationale
0:27 Is Range-Based Analysis Still Effective?
0:54 Modern Alternatives: GTO & Data Analysis
2:29 The Guesswork Problem in Ranging
4:07 GTO Analysis vs Traditional Ranging
5:13 How GTO Players Actually Think
7:56 Data-Driven Exploitative Strategies
8:34 Using Pool Data Without Precise Ranges
11:30 Static Game Plans vs Dynamic Adjustments
14:01 When Ranging Is Still Necessary
15:35 GTO vs Exploitative: Which Wins?
17:58 Augmenting Data-Driven Play with Ranging
19:19 The Power of Intuition in Poker
21:00 Final Thoughts on Modern Poker Strategy

**RELATED LINKS**

- Poker Ranges & Range Reading: https://www.splitsuit.com/poker-ranges-reading

- The Exploitative Edge (Book): https://redchippoker.com/the-exploitative-edge

- Poker Intuition Explained: https://redchippoker.com/poker-intuition-explained/

- The Myth Of GTO: https://youtu.be/vn6t9leOArw?si=z5DdAj9Ke9D_DTVx

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Do you equate the mental game of #poker with tilt avoidance? Then this episode of the
podcast will be a huge eye-opener. Sure mental resilience is a critical part of playing
winning poker, but there are many other edges you can develop through mindfulness.

Directed study moves more concepts into unconscious competence, making decisions
faster and more accurate. Creating a flow state will optimize your performance and thus
your hourly rate. A solid and complete mental game is the ultimate poker edge.

TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Introduction: The Mental Game
0:43 Adult Learning Model Explained
1:02 Unconscious Incompetence to Unconscious Competence
5:21 How Tilt Exposes Skill Gaps
7:35 The Inchworm Concept
10:32 Injecting Logic to Combat Tilt
13:47 Recognizing Accumulated Tilt
15:32 Should You Adjust Strategy When Tilted?
17:57 Types of Tilt: Running Bad, Injustice, Mistake Tilt
20:10 Entitlement Tilt and Variance
21:15 Desperation Tilt: When to Quit
22:21 The Zone: Playing Your A+ Game

RELATED LINKS

- Why Your Poker Mindset Matters: https://www.splitsuit.com/your-poker-mindset-matters
- The Exploitative Edge (Book): https://redchippoker.com/the-exploitative-edge
- Poker For Human Brains: https://youtu.be/xWwqm3MdFVM?si=RGlbv0xL_dVfGeTc
- Effective Poker Study: https://youtu.be/maaDxqtQgT4?si=aUZlnbKBkZ2OWFll

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Maximizing your #poker hourly rate extends well beyond simply playing well. If playing online, for example, how many simultaneous tables gives you your best results? What is your optimal session length? How do you even survive the poker grind?

While the answers to many of these questions depend on the individual player, there are many commonalities that can greatly boost the hourly rate of most players. Creating a grinding schedule, taking shots, balancing study and playing time, and bankroll management are among the topics discussed in this episode.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction: The Poker Grind
0:30 Hourly Volume & Multi-Tabling Strategy
1:10 The Yerkes-Dodson Law for Optimal Performance
2:26 Setting Volume-Based Session Goals
4:42 Managing Variance Through Volume
7:42 Creating a Grinding Schedule
10:30 Bankroll Management & Shot Taking Strategy
12:07 The 12+1 Shot Taking Method
14:32 When to Check the Cashier
16:30 Study vs Grinding Time Ratio
17:04 Opportunity Cost of Study Time
18:04 Real World Experience vs Lab Time
19:34 Ergonomics & Hardware Setup
21:46 Software Setup & Table Management Tools
22:46 Focus & Eliminating Distractions
23:29 Should You Listen to Music While Grinding?

RELATED LINKS

• Studying Poker: Your Weekly Study Guide: https://www.splitsuit.com/ultimate-weekly-poker-study-guide
• The Exploitative Edge (Book): https://redchippoker.com/the-exploitative-edge
• The Science Of BRM And Taking Shots: https://youtu.be/1nDFMAouLFM?si=QzxGdjZAI8CCJxug
• Multi-Tabling: https://youtu.be/2i9YfyyN0Xs?si=vjecjfDHuE09vOwK

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In the previous episode of the podcast, we discussed how GTO #poker requires mixing. Typical solutions returned by solvers include using multiple bet sizes in a given spot, with each size being used at a specific frequency.

While this is all very well in theory, how does one handle mixing in practice? If GTO tells you to bet pot 30% of the time, and half-pot 70% of the time, what do you actually do when the action is on you? The answer is we must randomize. How to randomize to maximize win-rate is the topic of this episode, meant for intermediate to advanced players.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction: What is Randomization in Poker?
1:06 Understanding Solver Output & Mixed Frequencies
2:11 How to Use RNG for Mixing
3:30 Combo-Level Mixing Explained
4:40 Why Precise Mixing Doesn't Impact Win Rate
6:33 Can Opponents Detect Imbalanced Mixing?
8:51 Hand-Level Mixing Strategy
11:00 Category-Level Mixing: The Practical Approach
14:00 Which Type of Mixing Should You Use?
15:26 Weak vs Strong Randomization
17:02 Why Weak Randomization is Enough
19:02 Problems with Using an RNG
21:11 Mental Barriers to Exploitative Play
22:38 When Hand-Level Mixing Makes Sense
22:59 Do High-Stakes Players Really Need RNGs?
25:48 Practical RNG Usage Recommendations

**RELATED LINKS**

- GTO+ Solver Bundle: https://redchippoker.com/gto-solver-bundle/

- The Exploitative Edge (Book): https://redchippoker.com/the-exploitative-edge

- Myths And Misunderstandings Of GTO Poker: https://youtu.be/vn6t9leOArw?si=KGtFUs3I0bq09qT8

- Why A Mixed Strategy Matters in GTO Poker: https://youtu.be/0hfW2dlhuDs?si=lzYVrhqdHiVIvcWx

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Have you heard high-stakes #poker players claiming that they play a GTO strategy? That is a myth that is quickly disproved; the general GTO solution to poker is currently unknown. Even if such a solution was available, memorizing solver output and its mixing frequencies would be impossible.

It is also the case, however, that GTO solvers have radically improved our understanding of the fundamentals of poker. This podcast episode breaks down the practical takeaways from GTO research, with a particular emphasis on GTO traps to avoid.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction: The GTO Myth
0:48 Why Nobody Actually Plays Pure GTO Poker
2:22 High-Stakes Players Who Claim to Be "GTO Players"
4:14 The Problem with Solver Memorization
6:03 How Players Are Misled by GTO Claims
7:42 Training Content Focused Only on GTO
9:30 The Danger of Solver Misuse for New Players
11:00 Card-Removal Effects vs. Fundamental Strategy
12:06 The RNG Mixing Myth
14:32 Suggestions for Better Poker Study
15:29 Why Pure GTO Players Are a Red Flag
17:55 GTO Principles + Exploitative Play = Maximum Win-Rate
19:57 Poker Ecology and Who Benefits from GTO Play
22:42 Final Thoughts on Maximizing Your Win-Rate

**RELATED LINKS**

- Red Chip Poker GTO Ranges App: https://redchippoker.com/gto-ranges-app

- The Exploitative Edge (Book): https://redchippoker.com/the-exploitative-edge

- How To Crush GTO Poker: https://youtu.be/j8cFt86B8To?si=KCYCurk0NK-Ua60v

- Common Questions About GTO Poker: https://youtu.be/jKzHZnVMjRk?si=53huagktpyXAOOSQ

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Playing #poker well can be viewed as making the highest-EV decision at every opportunity. In some situations, such as facing an all-in, calculating EV is relatively trivial. But what about more complex situations, particularly on early streets, where the EV formula is hard to apply?

Enter EV modeling; an approach that estimates the EV of different actions by modeling multiple branches of the game tree. In this episode of the Red Chip Poker podcast, coach w34z3l presents several practical EV modeling methods so you can optimize your poker decisions.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction to EV Modeling

0:23 What is EV Modeling?

3:15 Tools for EV Modeling

3:33 CardRunners EV (CREV)

6:02 Limitations of CREV

8:29 Excel and Spreadsheets

10:52 Solvers and EV Modeling

13:01 Why Solvers Don't Work for Exploitative EV

13:38 Node-Locking Misconception

17:07 The Ideal EV Modeling Tool

20:10 Practical EV Modeling Examples

24:56 Managing Model Complexity

25:30 Conclusion and Next Steps

**RELATED LINKS**

- Join Red Chip PRO Now: https://redchippoker.com/pro-membership

- The Exploitative Edge (Book): https://redchippoker.com/the-exploitative-edge

- Poker Mastery 101 (Course): https://youtu.be/B8qidwy2UeU?si=A7G1_d1SYo2Ewrew

- Poker Strategy Math Every Pro Knows: https://youtu.be/QqXzTxxMzjU?si=yA1-iTJ1ISz42gDT

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Join our free poker Discord today: https://redchippoker.com/discord