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  • Why Treasury Is Stuck Borrowing at the Front of the Curve

    Why Treasury Is Stuck Borrowing at the Front of the Curve
    2026/06/06
    The U.S. Treasury now issues more short-term debt than at any point since the financial crisis. Lucas and Luna explain why the government is effectively borrowing on a credit card — issuing bills with maturities under one year to fund long-term spending. They break down the mechanics: the Treasury's cash management problem, the role of the debt ceiling, and what happens when 3-month yields stay above 3.6 percent while the 30-year sits at 5 percent. Using June 2026 data, they show how the ratio of bills to total marketable debt has climbed past 22 percent, and why that creates rollover risk for every new auction. This episode connects the yield curve's front-end dynamics to a deeper question: how long can the fiscal system run on short-term funding before the market demands a premium? #TreasuryBorrowing #ShortTermDebt #NationalDebt #YieldCurve #TBill #3MonthYield #FiscalPolicy #DebtManagement #TreasuryAuctions #BondMarket #FederalDebt #Economics #MacroEconomics #FiscalOutlook #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • How the 3-Month Yield Is Breaking the Curve

    How the 3-Month Yield Is Breaking the Curve
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling signal in the Treasury market: the 3-month bill yield is holding near 3.78 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.49. That narrow 71-basis-point gap is historically abnormal and suggests the market is pricing in a very different rate path than the Fed's current stance. They walk through what the short end is saying about recession risk, the Fed's next moves, and how this twist connects to the broader fiscal outlook as the national debt crosses 38.5 trillion dollars. A focused look at one overlooked yield-curve corner that might be telling us more than the 10-2 spread. #TreasuryYields #ThreeMonthBills #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #ShortEnd #NationalDebt #BondMarket #RecessionSignal #InterestRates #FiscalPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #DebtPodcast #MonetaryPolicy #FedFundsRate #Inversion Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分
  • Why Long-Term Unemployment Is a Hidden Fiscal Time Bomb

    Why Long-Term Unemployment Is a Hidden Fiscal Time Bomb
    2026/06/05
    This week on The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna connect two seemingly separate dots: the rising long-term unemployment rate and the accelerating national debt. With federal debt at 38.5 trillion dollars and the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5 percent, they explain why workers who are out of a job for more than six months aren't just a labor-market problem — they're a structural fiscal problem. Lucas breaks down the math: how long-term joblessness reduces tax revenue, forces higher spending on unemployment insurance and food assistance, and ultimately widens the deficit. Luna points to the human cost — lost skills, reduced lifetime earnings, and the hidden drag on GDP. Using data from the May jobs preview and the latest Treasury yields, they argue that if long-term unemployment is surging even as headline job growth looks decent, the bond market is going to notice. The episode closes on the question no policymaker wants to answer: can we afford to ignore the long-term unemployed when the debt-to-GDP ratio is already at 122 percent? #LongTermUnemployment #NationalDebt #FederalDeficit #TreasuryYields #FiscalPolicy #EconomicRecovery #LaborMarket #BondMarket #DebtToGDP #30YearYield #JoblessRecovery #StructuralUnemployment #GovernmentSpending #TaxRevenue #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #NationalDebtPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why the Fed Rate Is Not Controlling Long-Term Borrowing Costs

    Why the Fed Rate Is Not Controlling Long-Term Borrowing Costs
    2026/06/04
    Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that flummoxes the bond market: the Fed has cut short-term rates to 3.63 percent, but the 30-year Treasury yield sits stubbornly at 4.98 percent. They walk through the data—the 10-year at 4.46, the 2-year at 4.05—and explain why fiscal deficits, term premium, and foreign demand are overriding the central bank's signals. With the national debt at 38.5 trillion and debt-to-GDP at 122.6 percent, the conversation reveals how Washington's borrowing appetite is rewriting the rules of monetary policy transmission. A fresh angle for anyone wondering why mortgage rates and corporate bonds aren't following the Fed's lead. #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #NationalDebt #TermPremium #FiscalDominance #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy #LongTermRates #YieldCurve #DebtToGDP #CentralBanking #InterestRates #Macroeconomics #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheNationalDebtPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • The 30-Year Yield at 5 Percent and What It Means for Borrowing

    The 30-Year Yield at 5 Percent and What It Means for Borrowing
    2026/06/04
    Lucas and Luna explore what the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5 percent means for the federal debt trajectory. With the yield at 4.99 percent as of early June 2026, they discuss how persistent long-term rates reshape borrowing costs, crowd out other spending, and signal market skepticism about fiscal discipline. Lucas breaks down the math: each percentage point increase in the 30-year adds roughly $200 billion in interest costs over a decade. They also touch on how tariff uncertainty and conflict in Iran are adding to the premium investors demand for long-term bonds. A focused look at one specific yield level and its structural implications. #30YearTreasury #TreasuryYield #NationalDebt #FiscalPolicy #InterestRates #BondMarket #DebtService #FederalBorrowing #YieldCurve #Tariffs #IranWar #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #DebtTrajectory #LucasAndLuna #LongTermRates Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    12 分
  • US Debt Hits Record Despite Strong Jobs and Tariff Talks

    US Debt Hits Record Despite Strong Jobs and Tariff Talks
    2026/06/03
    The national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, with interest costs consuming a growing share of the federal budget. Lucas and Luna examine how the latest economic data—strong payrolls, rising tariffs, and elevated bond yields—complicates the Treasury's borrowing strategy. They discuss the 30-year yield hovering near 5%, the 10-year at 4.49%, and what the 10-2 yield spread of 41 basis points says about fiscal risk. The episode also covers why foreign buyers are hesitant, the impact of the Iran conflict on energy prices, and whether the Fed's rate path offers any relief. A focused look at the tension between short-term economic strength and long-term debt trajectory. #NationalDebt #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #BondMarket #FiscalPolicy #InterestCosts #DebtToGDP #Tariffs #IranWar #Inflation #ADPPayrolls #JobOpenings #10YearTreasury #30YearTreasury #YieldCurve #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • What the 10-2 Yield Spread Tells Us About Fiscal Risk

    What the 10-2 Yield Spread Tells Us About Fiscal Risk
    2026/06/03
    The yield curve between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury has been positive for months, but today it's narrowing again. Lucas and Luna dig into why the spread matters beyond the usual recession signal — focusing on how the Treasury's shifting debt maturity mix is distorting that signal. With the 10-year at 4.47 percent and the 2-year at 4.05 percent, they explore what the 41-basis-point spread actually says about long-term fiscal credibility, investor demand, and the cost of rolling over short-term debt. Including how the Iran war and tariff uncertainty are reshaping foreign buyer appetite. A grounded look at one number that sums up a lot of tension. #YieldCurve #TreasuryBonds #NationalDebt #BondMarket #10YearYield #2YearYield #FiscalPolicy #InterestRates #DebtManagement #FederalReserve #IranWar #Tariffs #ForeignInvestors #Macroeconomics #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • How the Federal Debt Is Reshaping the Bond Market Structure

    How the Federal Debt Is Reshaping the Bond Market Structure
    2026/06/02
    Episode 26 of The National Debt Podcast examines a structural shift in the Treasury market: as the total federal debt surpasses $38.5 trillion, the composition of bond buyers is changing. Lucas and Luna discuss how foreign official holdings have declined from 35% of marketable debt in 2012 to roughly 23% today, while domestic institutional investors like pension funds and banks are stepping in under different incentives. With the 30-year yield hovering near 5% and the Fed funds rate at 3.63%, the episode explores whether the Treasury can keep finding buyers for longer-term debt at current yields. Specific data points include the 10-year yield at 4.45%, the 2-year at 3.98%, and the 10-2 spread narrowing to 42 basis points. The conversation also touches on the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and what it means for auction dynamics. #NationalDebt #TreasuryMarket #BondMarket #FederalReserve #FiscalPolicy #DebtClock #30YearYield #10YearYield #YieldCurve #ForeignHoldings #InstitutionalInvestors #PensionFunds #AuctionDemand #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FiscalOutlook #DebtService Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分