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  • How the 30-Year Yield at 5 Percent Locks In Higher Borrowing Costs

    How the 30-Year Yield at 5 Percent Locks In Higher Borrowing Costs
    2026/07/21
    In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine how the 30-year Treasury yield hovering above 5 percent is reshaping the long-term fiscal outlook. With the yield at 5.06 percent as of mid-July 2026, the cost of new borrowing is permanently higher, adding hundreds of billions to interest payments. Lucas breaks down why this level matters for the debt trajectory, how it contrasts with the short-term rate environment (the 3-month yield is at 3.85 percent), and what it means for investors and policymakers. Luna questions whether the bond market is sending a signal about fiscal credibility. They reference the latest data showing federal debt at $39.1 trillion and the deficit at $1.77 trillion, and discuss how a 5 percent handle on long-term rates could become the new normal. The conversation stays grounded in current numbers and looks ahead to implications for the next decade. #30YearYield #TreasuryYields #NationalDebt #FiscalOutlook #BondMarket #InterestRates #Deficit #FederalDebt #LongTermRates #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #GovernmentBorrowing #YieldCurve #DebtTrajectory #MonetaryPolicy #Treasury Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • How Import Costs from China Are Adding to the National Debt

    How Import Costs from China Are Adding to the National Debt
    2026/07/21
    Episode 125 of The National Debt Podcast explores a surprising new driver of US fiscal pressure: rising import costs from China. Lucas and Luna break down the latest data showing import prices from China hit their highest level since 2008, and explain how higher input costs for businesses feed into slower economic growth, reduced tax revenue, and ultimately a larger deficit. They connect the dots between trade prices, corporate margins, and the federal borrowing trajectory, using the latest Treasury yield curve and deficit figures. The conversation stays grounded in the numbers—no overheated rhetoric—and offers listeners a concrete, actionable takeaway on a channel most debt-watchers overlook. #NationalDebt #USDeficit #ChinaImports #ImportPrices #TradePolicy #Tariffs #Inflation #TreasuryYields #FiscalPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #GovernmentDebt #SupplyChain #CorporateMargins #TaxRevenue #FederalReserve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • How Import Prices From China Are Adding to the National Debt

    How Import Prices From China Are Adding to the National Debt
    2026/07/20
    On this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a surprising data point: import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008. They explore how rising costs for imported goods feed into inflation, which in turn increases the government's interest payments on inflation-indexed securities and pushes up overall borrowing costs. With the 30-year yield at 5.09 percent and the Fed holding rates steady, they drill into the specific mechanism by which trade policy and tariff uncertainty are making the debt math worse. Lucas brings a concrete number: $400 billion in additional interest costs over the next decade if yields stay elevated. Luna challenges him on whether the Fed's next move could offset some of that pressure. They also discuss how wholesale deflation in other categories complicates the picture, creating a 'choose your own adventure' for fiscal forecasters. The episode ends with a look at what the Hormuz situation could mean for energy costs and the debt trajectory. #NationalDebt #TreasuryYields #ImportPrices #China #Tariffs #Inflation #FiscalPolicy #Fed #InterestRates #30YearYield #WholesaleDeflation #Hormuz #EnergyCosts #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #DebtMath #FiscalOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • How Hormuz Hostilities Are Reshaping the National Debt Math

    How Hormuz Hostilities Are Reshaping the National Debt Math
    2026/07/20
    In this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are feeding into the US debt picture. With import prices from China at the highest since 2008 and wholesale prices unexpectedly declining 0.3% in June, the hosts explore the competing forces of energy-driven inflation and deflationary goods. They discuss how the 30-year yield holding at 5.09% and the 10-2 spread narrowing to 37 basis points signal market unease about long-term fiscal stability. The conversation also touches on the Fed's response and why the debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 122.6%. A subtle tie-in to listener support keeps the show ad-free. #NationalDebt #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Inflation #Deflation #TreasuryYields #FederalDeficit #FedPolicy #EnergyPrices #ChinaImports #WholesalePrices #DebtToGDP #30YearYield #YieldCurve #ECB #MonetaryPolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • How the World Cup Boosted Bars But Not the Deficit

    How the World Cup Boosted Bars But Not the Deficit
    2026/07/19
    Lucas and Luna examine a surprising disconnect in the economy: the 2026 World Cup gave bars and restaurants a much-needed boost, according to the Fed's Beige Book, but the surge in consumer spending did little to improve the federal deficit. With the national debt at $39 trillion and wholesale prices unexpectedly declining, they explore why a consumption-driven recovery isn't translating into fiscal relief. Lucas breaks down the math: even if hospitality revenues spiked 20 percent, the impact on tax receipts is trivial compared to the $1.8 trillion annual deficit. Luna questions whether this reveals a structural problem — that the economy needs stimulus just to tread water, while debt service costs eat up any gains. They also touch on the steepening yield curve and what the 5.09 percent 30-year yield means for future borrowing. A focused look at why good news for Main Street doesn't always help the Treasury. #NationalDebt #FederalDeficit #WorldCup2026 #ConsumerSpending #BeigeBook #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #WholesaleDeflation #Hospitality #FiscalPolicy #TaxReceipts #DebtToGDP #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LongTermDebt Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How Inflation Is Quietly Eroding the Real Value of US Debt

    How Inflation Is Quietly Eroding the Real Value of US Debt
    2026/07/19
    On this episode of The National Debt Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a counterintuitive consequence of inflation: it reduces the real burden of America's $39 trillion federal debt. With the 10-year yield at 4.54% and the 30-year at 5.06%, they explain how nominal GDP growth outpacing interest costs is shrinking the debt-to-GDP ratio in real terms. Using the latest Fed data and Treasury auction dynamics, they discuss why this 'inflation tax' benefits borrowers—including the US government—while hitting bondholders. Lucas points to the 122.6% debt-to-GDP figure and shows how even moderate inflation can steadily reduce that ratio if growth holds. Luna pushes back on the political optics and the risk of higher yields. It's a nuanced look at a rarely discussed silver lining in the fiscal picture. #NationalDebt #Inflation #TreasuryYields #DebtToGDP #FederalReserve #FiscalPolicy #Economics #BondMarket #InflationTax #RealReturns #NominalGrowth #GovernmentBorrowing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #TreasuryAuctions #LongTermDebt #EconomicOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分
  • How China's Slowdown Is Reshaping the US Debt Picture

    How China's Slowdown Is Reshaping the US Debt Picture
    2026/07/18
    Episode 120 of The National Debt Podcast with Fexingo dives into an underexplored dimension of the fiscal story: how China's economic slowdown is affecting U.S. Treasury dynamics. With China posting its slowest quarterly growth since 2022 and renewed Hormuz tensions rattling global markets, Lucas and Luna examine how foreign demand for U.S. debt is shifting. They discuss the 10-year yield hovering near 4.57 percent, the debt-to-GDP ratio at 122.6 percent, and what happens if the biggest foreign buyer of Treasuries starts to pull back. The conversation connects China's investment slump to lower Treasury auction demand, steeper yield curves, and higher borrowing costs for Washington. This isn't about tariffs or trade wars — it's about the quiet, structural link between Beijing's slowdown and America's rising interest bill. Specific, current, and focused on a single concrete angle. #ChinaSlowdown #NationalDebt #TreasuryYields #ChinaEconomy #USDebt #BondMarket #FiscalPolicy #ForeignHolders #TreasuryAuctions #EconomicGrowth #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #ECB #Hormuz #Deficit #DebtToGDP #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • How Spiking Insurance Premiums Are Adding to the National Debt

    How Spiking Insurance Premiums Are Adding to the National Debt
    2026/07/18
    The federal government is now a major consumer of property and casualty insurance, and premiums are surging. As climate change intensifies, the cost to insure federal buildings, military bases, and flood-prone infrastructure is climbing faster than inflation. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine a overlooked driver of the national debt: the Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration, the rising cost of the National Flood Insurance Program, and how private-sector rate hikes are bleeding into the public balance sheet. With the 30-year yield at 5.09 percent and the federal debt at $39 trillion, every unexpected expense compounds the fiscal challenge. Lucas breaks down the numbers: a 12 percent jump in federal property insurance costs year-over-year, and how that adds to the interest burden. Luna asks whether this changes the way we should think about disaster spending and whether mitigation efforts can offset the spiral. A ground-level look at an expense line that barely registers in the deficit debate but is quietly growing faster than almost anything else. #NationalDebt #FederalInsurance #ClimateRisk #FloodInsurance #PropertyInsurance #NFIP #FiscalPolicy #Treasury #Deficit #InterestCosts #ClimateFinance #RiskManagement #GovernmentSpending #InsurancePremiums #DisasterRelief #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分