This is a recording of a webinar held by the Stanford Iranian Studies Program on April 15, 2026. This discussion evaluates the conventional wisdom surrounding U.S. sanctions on Iran. The paper in discussion from the Stanford Iran 2040 Project is available: https://iranian-studies.stanford.edu/publications/irans-exports-under-sanctions-myth-maximum-pressure

Data from this paper shows that Iran's oil exports have not only recovered from their lowest points under strict sanctions, but now surpass the peak levels seen during the JCPOA. The authors explore the primary causes behind this rebound. The discussion also dissects the intricate barter system that allows Iran to trade oil for goods, technology, and infrastructure projects, bypassing the international financial system. They analyze how this mechanism funnels resources to entities like the IRGC, fueling both domestic suppression and foreign aggression. Finally, they assess the future of this paradigm and its implications for Iran.

Matin Mirramezani manages the Stanford Iran 2040 Project and has been a contributor to the project since 2018. He studied economics at Stanford and co-founded the Generation Lab, a youth-focused data intelligence company. He is passionate about innovative research methods and policies that promote development. He is also the co-author of The Struggle for Development in Iran (SUP, 2022).

Sam Samani is a senior at Stanford University studying Political Science with a minor in Iranian Studies. His research focuses on Iranian elite politics, institutional continuity, and U.S. policy toward Iran, with particular attention to sanctions, succession dynamics, and state capacity. He has conducted research with the Hoover Institution and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and has professional experience at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Part of the Stanford Iran 2040 Project: goto.stanford.edu/iran2040