エピソード

  • When does our Jobless Recovery theme stop being bullish for stocks?

    When does our Jobless Recovery theme stop being bullish for stocks?
    2026/04/24
    Darius argues that what looks like weakness in the labor market is actually structurally bullish in the near term, as AI-driven productivity gains support margins, earnings, and broader economic resilience. Investors are still underpricing the full impact of Paradigm C, the Productivity Boom, and expanding liquidity, which continue to act as tailwinds for risk assets.
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    6 分
  • Is the consensus bullishness regarding the earnings outlook justified?

    Is the consensus bullishness regarding the earnings outlook justified?
    2026/04/23
    Strong earnings growth and accelerating global liquidity continue to support a pro-risk market environment. Despite geopolitical noise and crowded positioning, the underlying macro regime remains firmly risk-on. The key takeaway: focus on earnings and liquidity trends, not headlines, and stay systematically invested.
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    5 分
  • Is Kevin Warsh a hawk or a dove?

    Is Kevin Warsh a hawk or a dove?
    2026/04/22
    In today’s episode, we break down rising policy and geopolitical risks, including Warsh’s testimony and Hormuz concerns, and explain how investors should approach the potential for sharp, non-linear market moves.
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    6 分
  • What matters most to asset markets—March Retail Sales, Kevin Warsh’s testimony, or the US-Iran ceasefire?

    What matters most to asset markets—March Retail Sales, Kevin Warsh’s testimony, or the US-Iran ceasefire?
    2026/04/21
    Markets continue to look through headlines and focus on the bigger picture, as resilient economic data and improving liquidity conditions reinforce a risk-on regime. In this episode, we break down why regime shifts—not individual catalysts—are what truly drive asset prices.
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    6 分
  • Should investors de-risk ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing tomorrow?

    Should investors de-risk ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing tomorrow?
    2026/04/20
    Policy risk takes center stage as Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing approaches, with markets bracing for potential interest rate volatility. In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down why investors should stay disciplined—preparing for near-term turbulence while remaining focused on the bigger picture, including the long-term case for global equities outperforming U.S. markets.
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    5 分
  • Has the stock market fully priced a positive resolution to the US-Israel-Iran conflict?

    Has the stock market fully priced a positive resolution to the US-Israel-Iran conflict?
    2026/04/17
    Markets are signaling that much of the geopolitical risk tied to the US–Israel–Iran conflict may already be priced in, with short-term crowding indicators turning more cautious. However, the broader macro backdrop remains supportive, as liquidity trends and pro-growth policy dynamics continue to reinforce a risk-on regime.
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    5 分
  • Is the stock market underpricing a deterioration in the US-Israel-Iran ceasefire?

    Is the stock market underpricing a deterioration in the US-Israel-Iran ceasefire?
    2026/04/16
    Geopolitical risk is back in focus as markets appear to be underpricing the fragility of the US–Israel–Iran ceasefire. In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale explains why the current risk-on regime remains intact for now—but also why investors must stay disciplined and prepared to respond quickly if conditions deteriorate and liquidity comes under pressure.
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    10 分
  • Why would POTUS attempt to fire Fed Chair Powell?

    Why would POTUS attempt to fire Fed Chair Powell?
    2026/04/15
    Policy pressure on the Fed took center stage, reinforcing our long-held view that central bank independence is being eroded in response to structural stress in the Treasury market. At the same time, global growth signals are improving, liquidity is trending higher, and our models continue to support a risk-on, REFLATION regime—keeping investors positioned on the right side of market risk despite rising geopolitical noise.
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    10 分