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  • Will inflation cause asset markets to devolve from violent chop into a violent drawdown?

    Will inflation cause asset markets to devolve from violent chop into a violent drawdown?
    2026/02/13
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down whether inflation risks could push markets from violent chop into a deeper drawdown. His answer: unlikely. January CPI reinforced the disinflation trend, with housing and labor pressures cooling and AI-driven productivity poised to shave roughly 50 basis points off trend inflation over time. He also explains why the recent volatility reflects accelerating AI diffusion—not systemic breakdown—and makes the case for disciplined risk management over emotional “hodling,” emphasizing that managing downside is the key to compounding capital over full market cycles.
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    12 分
  • What do the January Jobs Report, January NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, and January Monthly Treasury Budget Statement signal about the health of the US economy?

    What do the January Jobs Report, January NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, and January Monthly Treasury Budget Statement signal about the health of the US economy?
    2026/02/12
    Darius unpacks what the January Jobs Report, NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, and Treasury Budget data reveal about the health of the U.S. economy. He argues the economy is emerging from its U-shaped slowdown, even as a jobless recovery dynamic gains traction amid AI diffusion and persistent fiscal crowding out. We also reinforce why systematic risk management remains central to navigating this increasingly K-shaped cycle.
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    12 分
  • Has the crypto collapse concluded?

    Has the crypto collapse concluded?
    2026/02/06
    Darius assesses whether the recent crypto selloff marked a true capitulatory low or merely a short-term bounce, cautioning investors against chasing liquidity-driven narratives. He also outlines why the AI CapEx boom is flashing late-cycle risk and reiterates how KISS and Dr. Mo help investors compound wealth by managing volatility, not stories.
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    23 分
  • Is the US Treasury still friend or foe?

    Is the US Treasury still friend or foe?
    2026/02/04
    This episode examines whether the U.S. Treasury remains a tailwind for markets and why dovish net financing continues to support Paradigm C. It also addresses rising uncertainty around monetary policy and why disciplined risk management matters more than ever.
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    18 分
  • What does the breakdown in legacy software stocks signal about the US labor market?

    What does the breakdown in legacy software stocks signal about the US labor market?
    2026/02/03
    Today’s Macro Minute examines what the sharp breakdown in legacy software stocks is signaling about the U.S. labor market. Darius explains why accelerating AI adoption, SaaS disruption, and corporate cost pressures are reinforcing the risk of a jobless recovery—particularly for younger and less experienced workers—while labor hoarding persists at the top of the market.
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    17 分
  • Have the plunges in precious metals prices concluded?

    Have the plunges in precious metals prices concluded?
    2026/02/02
    Markets are grappling with sharp cross-asset volatility as investors reassess U.S. monetary policy uncertainty following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Today’s Macro Minute breaks down why recent moves in precious metals and crypto reflect uncertainty—not a confirmed regime shift—and why disciplined, systematic risk management remains critical.
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    10 分
  • Is the productivity story more important than the Fed?

    Is the productivity story more important than the Fed?
    2026/01/29
    Darius explains why productivity—not the Federal Reserve—is now the dominant driver of markets. He breaks down how AI-driven layoffs are boosting margins, accelerating disinflation, and reshaping the investment landscape, and why systematic risk management remains essential amid Fourth Turning volatility.
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    12 分
  • Will the Fed continue to ease monetary policy in 2026?

    Will the Fed continue to ease monetary policy in 2026?
    2026/01/28
    Today, Darius previews today’s FOMC decision, explaining why the Fed is unlikely to continue easing in 2026 despite disinflationary progress. He outlines the growing risk of policy inertia, the implications of a jobless recovery, and why systematic risk management—not Fed watching—remains critical in the Paradigm C regime
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    7 分