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  • Will the November CPI report catalyze the much-anticipated Santa Claus rally?

    Will the November CPI report catalyze the much-anticipated Santa Claus rally?
    2025/12/18
    Darius Dale breaks down whether the November CPI report can ignite a long-awaited Santa Claus rally — and why distorted inflation data may be strengthening the case for policy easing in early 2026. He also highlights the growing divergence between slowing inflation and rising labor-market risks, reinforcing 42 Macro’s view that a more accommodative Fed reaction function is taking shape. Tune in for the key insights driving markets into year-end.
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    8 分
  • Is the AI trade over?

    Is the AI trade over?
    2025/12/17
    Today, the Macro Minute tackles whether the AI trade is truly over—and why the answer is a resounding no. Darius explains how Paradigm C and the early steps into Paradigm D continue to fuel AI investment, capital-market buoyancy, and liquidity support. He breaks down the geopolitical catalysts pushing gold and precious metals to new highs, highlights the risks of crowded bullish positioning, and revisits the startling reality that the U.S. dollar has been devalued over 60% against gold this year.
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    12 分
  • Does the US labor market support the Fed’s revised reaction function?

    Does the US labor market support the Fed’s revised reaction function?
    2025/12/16
    Today’s Macro Minute unpacks how rising unemployment and softening payrolls confirm the Fed’s shift toward a more dovish reaction function. Darius explains why investors should expect policy easing through the first half of 2026 and how crowded bullish positioning raises the risk of bubbles in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. He also highlights historic optimism among global asset managers and answers a KISS user question on why the model favors gold over Bitcoin in the current regime.
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    16 分
  • Did the Fed just kickstart Paradigm D?

    Did the Fed just kickstart Paradigm D?
    2025/12/11
    Darius breaks down the Fed’s shift toward a more dovish, expansionary policy framework — a move that raises the probability that Paradigm C and Paradigm D may operate simultaneously. We explain why this pivot turns five of the six major macro cycles into powerful tailwinds for risk assets and increases the odds of bubbles forming in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.
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    16 分
  • Is today’s likely “hawkish cut” by the Fed already priced in?

    Is today’s likely “hawkish cut” by the Fed already priced in?
    2025/12/10
    Today’s Macro Minute breaks down the Fed’s likely hawkish cut, why bonds have already priced it in while equities have not, and how a divided FOMC is complicating the policy outlook heading into 2026. We also highlight the growing importance of balance-sheet clarity amid rising funding stress and explain how KISS and Dr. Mo are navigating this choppy, catalyst-starved environment with discipline.
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    11 分
  • Will the Fed sacrifice Main Street to save Wall Street (again)?

    Will the Fed sacrifice Main Street to save Wall Street (again)?
    2025/12/09
    Darius explores the central question heading into the Fed meeting: will policymakers protect Wall Street at the expense of Main Street? He outlines the implications for liquidity, volatility, and how our systematic tools guide portfolio construction.
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    7 分
  • How will markets navigate a divided Fed?

    How will markets navigate a divided Fed?
    2025/12/08
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down how a deeply divided Fed is shaping market uncertainty and why the broadening-out trade remains premature. He outlines what must happen before rotation can take hold and explains how KISS and Dr. Mo are navigating rising policy risk.
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    9 分
  • What did the delayed September PCE Report signal about the health of the US consumer? What did it signal about the Fed’s current policy setting?

    What did the delayed September PCE Report signal about the health of the US consumer? What did it signal about the Fed’s current policy setting?
    2025/12/05
    Today’s episode breaks down the delayed September PCE Report, which reinforces both the Resilient U.S. Economy theme and our Sticky Inflation thesis. Darius also highlights emerging repo-market funding stress and why early Reserve Management Operation Purchases may now be on the table.
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    9 分