エピソード

  • CXMT’s Breakthrough Threatens Global Chipmakers

    CXMT’s Breakthrough Threatens Global Chipmakers
    2026/10/13
    Darius explains how CXMT’s reported chip breakthrough is challenging the global semiconductor bull case, examines growing concerns surrounding the scale and financing of the AI buildout, and discusses why a potential Fed-Treasury Accord 2.0 could eventually support long-duration bonds.
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    6 分
  • The ISM Services Report Challenges the Consensus Outlook

    The ISM Services Report Challenges the Consensus Outlook
    2026/10/05
    Today’s Macro Minute breaks down why the latest ISM Services and Factory Orders data challenged consensus expectations for accelerating growth and slowing inflation, while rising fiscal concerns in France add pressure to global bond markets. Darius also explains why recent weakness in private credit appears more technical than a signal of broader credit-cycle or recession risk.
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    7 分
  • The Fed Will Not Truncate This Business Cycle or Succeed in Its Price-Stability Mandate

    The Fed Will Not Truncate This Business Cycle or Succeed in Its Price-Stability Mandate
    2026/10/02
    Darius explains why September’s labor data reinforces 42 Macro’s Jobless Recovery theme, how the Fed’s expected policy path could pressure markets in the near term, and why any resulting pullback may ultimately create a buying opportunity.
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    4 分
  • Can we trust the August PCE and Q2 GDP data regarding the health of the US economy?

    Can we trust the August PCE and Q2 GDP data regarding the health of the US economy?
    2026/10/01
    In this Macro Minute, Darius explains why recent economic data continues to support a resilient U.S. economy and the persistence of Paradigm C, aka “Run It Hot.” He also discusses the implications for Treasury yields, potential Fed-Treasury intervention, and growing risks in the bond market.
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    5 分
  • Are we at peak good news regarding inflation?

    Are we at peak good news regarding inflation?
    2026/09/30
    Darius Dale discusses whether we’re approaching “peak good news” on inflation, what the latest PCE data signals for Fed policy, and why continued tightening may be necessary to sustain disinflation. He also examines the outlook for coordinated Fed-Treasury intervention and what rising rates could mean for international stocks, small caps, and mid caps.
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    6 分
  • Is the US labor market healthy?

    Is the US labor market healthy?
    2026/09/29
    Darius explains why the U.S. labor market remains structurally weak—and how 42 Macro’s Jobless Recovery and Productivity Boom themes could limit inflation and prevent a sustained Fed tightening cycle.
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    8 分
  • Are Bessent and Zervos cooking up a Fed-Treasury Accord 2.0?

    Are Bessent and Zervos cooking up a Fed-Treasury Accord 2.0?
    2026/09/28
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius examines whether Scott Bessent and David Zervos are laying the groundwork for a “Fed–Treasury Accord 2.0”—and why greater policy coordination could trigger a positive liquidity shock in 2027.
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    5 分
  • What must the US do to prevent losing to China in the manufactured “AI race,” part II?

    What must the US do to prevent losing to China in the manufactured “AI race,” part II?
    2026/09/23
    In this episode, we explain why U.S.–China cooperation may be essential in the AI race and what is ultimately at stake for American technology firms. We also examine how the Strait of Hormuz could shape oil prices, global interest rates, and the potential for a year-end risk-on rally.
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    9 分