エピソード

  • What the Yield Curve Inversion Says About Recession Risk Now

    What the Yield Curve Inversion Says About Recession Risk Now
    2026/06/07
    Long-term interest rates are rising even as the Fed holds short rates steady. The yield curve has inverted for over two years, but stock markets are near highs. In this episode, Lucas and Luna sift through the data on what the bond market is actually signaling. They look at the spread between the 10-year Treasury at 4.54 percent and the 2-year at 4.28 percent, the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62 percent, and why this persistent inversion feels different from past cycles. The conversation then turns to what it means for borrowing costs, corporate investment, and whether recession warnings have expired. Specific numbers and real economic context cut through the noise. #YieldCurve #BondMarket #Recession #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Treasury #Inflation #EconomicOutlook #MacroEconomics #MonetaryPolicy #Investing #StockMarket #BondYield #GDP #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #MacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • The May Jobs Report Numbers Markets Missed

    The May Jobs Report Numbers Markets Missed
    2026/06/07
    Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 jobs report data, digging into the payrolls number that beat expectations and the long-term unemployment surge that markets are undervaluing. They discuss what the 4.3 percent unemployment rate actually signals, why job openings jumped to 7.6 million, and how the Fed is likely to interpret the conflicting signals. A focused look at one labor market paradox that changes the rate-cut timeline. #MayJobsReport #LaborMarket #Unemployment #LongTermUnemployment #JOLTS #JobOpenings #NonfarmPayrolls #FederalReserve #RateCuts #ADP #Inflation #JobsFriday #LaborForce #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroMemo #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • What the May Jobs Report Will Reveal About the Labor Market

    What the May Jobs Report Will Reveal About the Labor Market
    2026/06/06
    With the May jobs report dropping tomorrow, Lucas and Luna break down what the data is likely to show and why markets might be misreading the trend. They focus on a key tension: job openings have surged past 7.6 million, but long-term unemployment is also climbing. The hosts explain how these two signals coexist and what they mean for the Fed's next move. They also examine the ADP private payrolls number of 122,000 and what it tells us about hiring momentum. Anchored in the latest JOLTS and unemployment data, this episode helps you see past the headline number. #JobsReport #May2026 #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Unemployment #FedPolicy #RateCuts #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #LongTermUnemployment #EconomicData #Inflation #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy #CentralBanking #LaborForce Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging With a 4.3 Percent Jobless Rate

    Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging With a 4.3 Percent Jobless Rate
    2026/06/06
    The unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, historically low. But beneath that headline number, long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—has jumped nearly 20 percent since last year. Lucas and Luna dig into the May jobs data, the JOLTS surge to 7.6 million openings, and the structural mismatch keeping workers on the sidelines. They explore why the Fed's rate-cutting path gets murkier when the labor market looks strong on the surface but fragile underneath. A concrete look at a hidden stress point in the economy, anchored to the latest numbers from June 2026. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #JOLTS #JobsReport #MayJobs2026 #UnemploymentRate #StructuralMismatch #EconomicIndicators #HiringSlowdown #FedRateCuts #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsShow #MacroMemo #JoblessClaims #WageGrowth Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • The May Jobs Report Preview What Markets Are Pricing Wrong

    The May Jobs Report Preview What Markets Are Pricing Wrong
    2026/06/05
    With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment rising, Lucas and Luna dig into the specific disconnect between headline payrolls and the hidden deterioration in labor force quality. The unemployment rate has stayed flat at 4.3 percent for months, but initial jobless claims just jumped to 225,000 — the highest since early 2025. Meanwhile, the JOLTS data showed a surprise surge in job openings to 7.6 million, yet the Fed is still cutting rates. Lucas explains why markets may be misreading the composition of hiring: temporary versus permanent jobs, full-time versus part-time. They also parse the ADP private payrolls number — 122,000 in May, stronger than expected — and what it means for the Fed's next move. The episode closes with a look at how long-term unemployment is quietly climbing and why that changes the policy calculus. #MayJobsReport #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #JOLTS #Unemployment #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #JoblessClaims #LongTermUnemployment #RateCuts #CorePCE #Inflation #GDP #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData #JobsFriday #HiddenUnemployment Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging What It Signals

    Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging What It Signals
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna unpack a worrying trend in the labor market: long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—is rising even as headline jobless claims stay low. They dig into the April data, where job openings rebounded to 7.6 million yet long-term unemployment hit levels not seen since 2021. Lucas explains what this 'duration problem' means for the Fed's rate path, wage growth, and worker re-entry. Luna shares why the typical solution—retraining programs—often falls short. A specific, data-driven look at a hidden vulnerability in an otherwise resilient jobs market, and why the May jobs report on Friday matters even more this month. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobsReport #JOLTS #FederalReserve #InterestRates #WageGrowth #EconomicIndicators #UnemploymentRate #HiringSlowdown #WorkerSkills #Retraining #MayJobsReport #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #JoblessClaims Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • The JOLTS Surge That Changes Everything About the Labor Market

    The JOLTS Surge That Changes Everything About the Labor Market
    2026/06/04
    Job openings in the U.S. surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna dig into what this JOLTS number really means—why it jumped while unemployment stayed at 4.3 percent, how the Fed is reading it, and whether this is a sign of strength or a statistical mirage. They break down the gap between openings and hires, the role of quits vs. layoffs, and what it means for the rate-cut timeline. If you think you understand the labor market, this episode will change your mind. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #RateCuts #Unemployment #EconomicData #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #Hiring #Quits #Layoffs #DataMirage #BureauOfLaborStatistics #Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • The Job Openations Surge That Changes Everything

    The Job Openations Surge That Changes Everything
    2026/06/04
    The JOLTS data for April 2026 showed a massive surge in job openings to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years. But that headline number tells a different story when you dig into the industry breakdown and the quits rate. Lucas and Luna unpack why this 'job openations' spike is actually a signal of labor market mismatch, not strength, and what it means for the Fed's rate path. They also discuss how the ADP private payrolls report for May fits into the picture, and why the unemployment rate staying flat at 4.3% might be masking growing fragility. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the tea leaves on the economy in mid-2026. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #Fed #RateCuts #Unemployment #ADP #Payrolls #QuitsRate #LaborMismatch #EconomicData #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #FederalReserve #April2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分