Alabama -10.5, why 91% of the take on the Tide and 90% on the over

Army-3.5, 68% on the Black Knights

Oregon-22.5, why it was 69-3 last year 65% on Oregon

BYU-7.5 68%

Mizzou -5.5 93% on Mizzou was 42-31 last year

BC -3 74%

Texas A&M -14.5 72% on Texas A&M

LSU -36

NC State -30.5

Pitt -7 vs UCF

Texas Tech -26.5

OU vs Mich UNDER 43.5 60%, 93% of dollars on OU -5.5

As always Best of luck and Enjoy Your Weekend

Greetings and welcome to The Griff Report - College Football Week 1. Last year the same teams went and covered the spread over and over at the top of CFB. Here is the percentage of public money bet and the consensus picks.

Notre Dame -20.5, 78%

Oklahoma -41.5, 58%

Miami -24.5, 68% - 11-5 ATS last year

LSU-10.5, 82%

Ohio State -50.5, 64% 10-3-1 ATS

Oregon -24.5, 73 % 9-6 ATS

Georgia-47.5, 71% 10-6 ATS

Indiana -40.5, 66% , 10-6 ATS

Texas -29.5, 95%

Georgia Tech -6.5 57%

U of L +6.5 49%

Duke -7.5 54%

Texas Tech -3 62% 12-2 ATS

Pitt -16.5 , 61% 8-5 ATS

Iowa -31.5,

Bryant vs. Army Bryant 63%

Memphis -10.5 67%

Week 0
Matchup,Spread,Tickets,Money,Divergence,Read
North Carolina vs TCU,UNC +7.5,36%,13%,ñ23,Public UNC fade; bigger wagers on TCU. This game went 48-14 TCU last year, it'll be a good measuring stick as to how much this UNC team has improved. I would actually think it'll be interesting to see TCU without Hoover who was thought to be top qb in the portal. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the game in Ireland has had its upsets. I'll take the points with UNC here even though most of the media has them at 4-8 or worse with their predictions. I hear the D-coordinator might be out already but Belichik is a defensive mind, they get Petrino at OC and UNC +7.5 is my pick no pick on total from me.

San Jose State vs USC,SJSU +38.5,94%,41%,ñ53,Public dog hammer; sharps on USC, we see this one with a big spread and true its going to be a lot of blowouts this year with everyone wanting the big wins. While USC may score into the 50's here the public is hammering the under dog? Why? The name brand teams like USC have to have the spread given more adjustment because the goal is to level out the bets 50/50 on both sides so its interesting to see 94 percent on SJSU even with 41% of the money on them, meaning 6 percent of the tickets at 59 percent of the money on the Trojans. Honestly with USC already penciled in as the winner who really knows and as far as the percentages you can expect some aree hoping for a downward line move with all the numbers coming in on SJSU, either way its likely to see gameday public betting on the Trojans a lot. USC put up 34.7 last year they will likely need to put up 50 to cover this number. The question is how much can they dominate this SJSU Spartans? I pass on the big spread.

NC State vs Virginia,NCST +5.5,48%,64%,"'+16",Sharp NC State; aligns with early sharp signals from Cleatz. Last year 35-31 the Wolfpack came to Virginia and won making it 4 in a row for NC State in the matchup. I would say that is also why we see considerable action on NC State money line for the upset. I would be cautious as ever with the being opening game for a Virginia squad who expects to win after success winning the ACC last year. especially when you see VA favored when they have lost 4 in a row vs. NC. State. For State they return a qb in his 3 rd year who played and beat UVA last year give me NC State +5.5

Jacksonville State vs NDSU,JVST +6.5,48%,75%,"'+27",Strong sharp dog signal, Jacksonville St+6.5

Sacramento State vs Eastern Michigan,SAC +8.5,38%,64%,"'+26",Sharps on Sac State; public on EMU, I'll stick with my week 0 trend and take SAC +8.5

New Mexico State vs Florida State,NMSU +31.5,98%,16%,ñ82,Biggest public mismatch of Week 0; sharps on FSU. The fact that Norvell is back given the hot seat from last years performance leads me to believe that this may a better year for the Seminoles. Noles -31.5

Hawaiíi vs Stanford,HAW +6,39%,77%,"'+38",Heavy sharp dog action
Hawai'i +6

Memphis vs UNLV,MEM +6,57%,67%,"'+10",Mild sharp lean Memphis, You see Dan Mullens team favored here as they have the senior Qb and are left to have their way with the mountain west. Memphis brings half the team up from Southern Miss along with the coach so just because that worked in Indiana doesn't mean itll work everywhere. But Memphis has won 12 openers in a row, give me Memphis +6

Major Sharp Signals (Handle ? Tickets)
NC State +5.5 ó 64% money vs 48% tickets ? +16 divergence (sharp)

Jacksonville State +6.5 ó 75% money vs 48% tickets ? +27 divergence (sharp)

Hawaiíi +6 ó 77% money vs 39% tickets ? +38 divergence (sharp)

Pure Public Sides (Tickets ? Money)
UNC +7.5 ó 36% tickets vs 13% money ? ñ23 divergence (public fade)

San Jose State +38.5 ó 94% tickets vs 41% money ? ñ53 divergence (massive public dog)

Sacramento State +8.5 ó 38% tickets vs 64% money ? actually +26 divergence (sharp dog) ó public is on EMU, not Sac State.

Matchup,Total,Over Tickets,Over Handle,Over Divergence,Under Tickets,Under Handle,Under Divergence,Read

North Carolina vs TCU,63.5,71%,54%,"'-17",29%,46%,"'+17",Sharper Under

San Jose State vs USC,67.5,82%,49%,"'-33",18%,51%,"'+33",Heavy public Over; sharp Under

NC State vs Virginia,48.5,44%,38%,"'-6",56%,62%,"'+6",Mild sharp Under

Jacksonville State vs NDSU,45.5,52%,61%,"'+9",48%,39%,"'-9",Slight sharp Over

Sacramento State vs Eastern Michigan,51.5,63%,41%,"'-22",37%,59%,"'+22",Sharper Under

New Mexico State vs Florida State,55.5,76%,33%,"'-43",24%,67%,"'+43",Strong sharp Under

Hawaiíi vs Stanford,54.5,58%,72%,"'+14",42%,28%,"'-14",Sharp Over

Memphis vs UNLV,57.5,61%,48%,"'-13",39%,52%,"'+13",Slight sharp Under

CIN vs. MIN – Taj Bradley is 3-0 with a 1.25 era vs. CIN, Abbott is facing the interleague matchup for the first time. The Reds are my team and they won yesterday, but today my pick is Min -130 with 97% on consensus, but I won't bet that most likely because the "Reds are on the Rad ee o"

METS vs. CHC – An old foe faces the Cubs with his new team. Peralta is 9-3 3.21 era vs. the Cubs. On the other side is Jameson Taillon who is sporting a 4-0 1.96 era vs. the Mets. This thing opened at -137 and has adjusted down to an even money game with the Cubs at -107. Peralta's stats shrink more at Wrigley an itty bitty 1.77 era over 91.2 innings. What about the wind? Yesterday I had the over 10.5 whereas today its at 8.5 without really much action on the total. My picks here are is the UNDER 8.5 by the way 89% consensus is on the Cubs but with Peralta's domination at Wrigley I'll pass and move on.

KC vs. NYY- The Yankees have taken 13 of 15 vs. KC. Noah Cameron only start vs the Yanks he was 6 run 7 hits given up. KC has lost 5 in row. Warren is facing KC for the first time. Consensus 99% on NYY and where else could I pick but the Yankees so you see all the one way stats the Yanks have been winning 86% of the time here so there is still a 14% chance the Royals strike in the Bronx. Pick NYY -177

TAM vs. PIT – Rasmussen 1-0 with a 2.19 era vs. Skenes who has a .64 era vs. Tampa. Pittsburgh is 11-16 all time vs. Tampa the Pirates winning yesterday. My pick here UNDER 7 and I think it'll be a close game so I think Skenes is pitching slightly better at home 98 % consensus on the Pirates, but the Rays at least give themselves a chance to stay in with Rasmussen most likely. Pirates -168

STL vs. HOU Pallante 1.80 era 1-0 vs. STROS, McCullers no starts vs Cards I can find. 93% of almost no action so far on the Astros who may win today but are off to a rough start.

TOR vs. ARI Scherzer is 9-0 2.65 era vs. D-backs, Gallen is 0-1 9.35 era vs. Blue Jays, 97 % consensus on the D-backs but I'm not in agreement, my picks is Toronto +1.5

CWS vs. OAK – Fredde is 7-4 with a 3.11 vs. OAK, Severino is 2-3 with a 4.44 era vs. CHW – Oakland lost yesterday to the White Sox but has won 13-7 last 20 matchups. Pick Athletics -160 Consensus 100% so far and that is the what concerns me is the overload on the A's despite the Sox still putting a quality starter out.

DET vs. BOS – Skubal 2-2 4.30 era vs. BOS Brayan Bello 0-1 5.74 era vs. Det. Detroit 11-9 last 20 vs Boston. -170 price on Skubal as the Red Sox are never easy but this should be the Tigers "Day" 99% consensus on the -167 which is my pick Detroit -167

SF vs. WAS Houser 0-1 1.37 era vs. Nationals, Cavali 4.18 over first 4 starts. SF 6-4 last 10 vs. WAS. The Giants took the series opener yesterday 10-5 and we have seen these teams kind of go back and forth. I'm gonna slide over to the total play here and take OVER 9.5 consensus 64% on the road Giants

MIL vs. MIA – Woodruff 4-0 2.53 era vs. Marlins, Alcantara 2-1 3.08 era vs. Brewers. The Marlins won yesterday in a game that was 5-7. This one could go over but if it does I would say its most likely in the hands of the bullpen. We see one of todays lower totals at 7.5 and I'll take that UNDER 7.5

ATL vs. PHI – Sale 2-2 with a 4.05 era vs. Phillies, Sanchez 0-3 4.32 era vs. Braves. Philly has won 12 of 20 games vs. ATL. ATL +111 is my pick and 57% of barely any action on this game is on the Braves.

BAL vs. CLE – Kramer 0-3 6.50 era vs. Cleveland, Williams 0-2 9.28 era vs. Orioles. Baltimore has won 11 of 20 games vs. CLE, amazingly 99% consensus is on Cleveland here as I guess they are expecting a better performance from Gavin Williams. I see the total at only 7.5 which means current season matters more to the books or something. Ill fade consensus and take BAL +1.5

TEX vs. SEA – Eovaldi 3-4 5.27 era, George Kirby 8-1 vs. TEX, 95% consensus and myself are on Seattle -140.

LAD vs. COL- Sheehan – 4-0 3.75 era vs. COL, Feltner 1-3 6.75 era vs. LAD, LA is 17-3 last 20 vs. COL, at -270 thats too much for me to lay even then. I'll take LAD -1.5

SD vs. LAA – Marquez 0-2 3.54 era vs LAA, Kukuchi 1-1 4.95 era vs. SD, My pick is OVER 9.5, consensus 90% over and 57% on Padres with little action on the game as a whole compared to rest of the board.

As always best of luck and enjoy your Saturday

WAS VS. PIT – GRIFFIN 2-0 1.76 ERA VS PIT. ASHCRAFT 1-1 2.12 ERA VS. WAS. PITTSBURGH 13-7 LAST 20 AT HOME VS WASHINGTON. 97%CONSENSUS ON PIRATES. MY PICKS WAS +1.5 AND UNDER 8.5.

SF VS. CINCINNATI – Originally thought the Reds would win 2 of 3 games but they have the first two and are the consensus pick to win today. Roupp for the Giants went for 6 scoreless innings in his only game vs. the Reds. Chase Burns went for 2 scoreless innings in spring training in his only game vs. SF. I've been keeping up with the Reds as my team this year so I look to the total here. These two young pitchers are starting for a reason and they may have a bit of a quality start on both sides. Because I already had the Giants figured to win one game in the series my pick here is to slide over to SF +1.5 and UNDER 8.5 81% consensus on Cincinnati money line.

KC VS. DET. Detroit is 15-5 last 20 games vs. KC. However the Royals have won the last game only of the last 3 series played in Detroit. What do you know it is the last game of the series with the Tigers winning the first two. Kris Bubic is 2-1 with a 2.45 era and 50 s.o. in 11 appearances. Montero for the Tigers doesn't have any starts vs. KC but is 1-1 for the year with a 1.15 era. My pick is KC -122. 65% consensus on KC

LAA vs. NYY I'll keep this one short and simple because the Angels +1.5 is my pick Still no starter announced for LAA so off the board.

TOR vs. MIL Patrick Corbin 4-7 4.72 era in 14 appearances vs MIL. Brandon Sprout is 0-1 10.45 era this season in his first start vs. Toronto. While Milwaukee has had the advantage in games played between the two in Milwaukee my pick here is OVER 8.5 – Milwaukee 77 % consensus

Tampa Bay vs. Chicago White Sox – Steven Matz 3-0 3.94 era. Kay had a No Decision in what turned out to be a White Sox win. Tampa won game 1 of the series, but CHW is 6-4 last 10 vs. Tampa Bay. My pick is White Sox +1.5 Tampa Bay 97 % consensus

Texas vs. Oakland – Jack Leiter 2-0 3.72 era vs. Athletics while Jacob Lopez pitched 7 scoreless innings in his only game vs. the Rangers. Last night it was and the series now sits at Oakland 2 games to 1 for Texas. My picks here are UNDER 8.5 and OAK +1.5 Texas 98% consensus

Baltimore vs. Cleveland – Parker Messich went 8.0 scoreless in his only game vs. the O's. Shane Baz gets his first start for Baltimore. Cleveland -120 is my pick. 96% consensus

COL vs. HOU – HOUSTON -1.5

Seattle vs. San Diego Luis Castillo is 3-3 in his career vs SD. Buehler is 1-1 with a 7.08 in 2025 he gave up 8 earned in 3 and a third innings. Both these guys are good pitchers here. 93% on Seattle here.

As always Best of luck and enjoy your Thursday

Miami vs. Ohio State -9 Cotton Bowl – Consensus on Ohio State -9 58% Looking at consensus first we see the biggest number of the playoffs and strength vs strength as the Ohio State defense faces the Miami O-line. Miami did enough vs. Texas A&M but it was an ugly win and for them to have a shot this one is gonna be another game. OSU is 2nd in the country on 3rd down defense and for the year they have the best defensive unit in the nation. The Canes two loses to Louisville and SMU but no one has beaten them by 9 yet. However OSU is 10-2-1 ATS, the Canes are 2-0 as underdogs. Which brings me to the total which is sitting at 42. I think both teams are comfortable with playing a defensive game, I normally would not make a total play but seeing the first CFP game from Miami they are comfortable playing that style of a game as well. I think Miami will have to play a perfect game to even cover here. It'll be close for most of the first half and they may cover on the Canes just down the stretch meaning you can probably pick up Ohio State during the game for a discounted number. However I think this one goes somewhere around 24-14 Buckeyes way. Ohio State -9 and the UNDER.

Oregon-2.5 vs. Texas Tech – I've seen Texas Tech play a few times this year but they weren't playing anyone who is a really good team. Maybe they show me wrong but until then I look at them as beat up on an easy schedule and think the rest of the teams in the CFP still would've gone undefeated with that type of schedule. 68% consensus with me on Oregon -2.5 and OVER 52.5 93% consensus as I feel like Oregon just let up a lot of points to JMU granted it was late but this one here will be back and forth. Oregon and the OVER

Alabama vs. Indiana-7- Consensus 51% on Bama here. I know Indiana is the cinderella of the football world this year and yea they did beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game with OSU really cared nothing about. I just don't think the Big Ten is as good as the SEC. Indiana has failed to cover some of their games as well 8-5 ATS, Alabama 2-1 ATS as a dog this year. Thing is I feel like there is zero chance that Alabama is underestimating IU and what has happened the rest of the year may be a feel good story but the momentum from going into OU and coming back from down 17-0 I've got to pick Alabama +7 and if your feeling lucky Alabama +203.

Ole Miss vs. Georgia-6.5 – A rematch from SEC play has the Bulldogs taking 82% consensus against the Rebels. Even though UGA covered in the first meeting it was Ole Miss who was ahead after 3 quarters. I think this may be a very competitive game where Georgia's run attack builds strength as the game goes on. It's hard for me to pick anywhere else because I feel like Georgia is the best team in the playoffs. UGA-6.5 by a score of about 27-20 with Ole Miss trying to drive to tie the game up and Georgia's D having to make the stop the secure the win. Georgia -6.5

As always Best of luck and Enjoy your New Years!

Alabama - The road team here looks to avenge an upset of earlier this year played in Tuscaloosa, the question will be can they protect the QB and avoid the big turnovers that doomed the Tide in the first matchup. On the surface it was the defense of OU and will have to be again in this one. However we have seen that this isn't Alabama of old as Georgia would never have put that type of beat down on Saban. The total set at 41 so expect a defensive battle even with 71% consensus on the over. 54 % on the Tide here but I'm not sold on them as being worth putting my money on here. This is a game I'll watch but could go either way. My pick however is Alabama pk as the bookmakers aren't giving -3 for home field here. Bama is 8-4-1 ATS, OU 6-5-1 ATS. Crimson Tide PK.

Oregon-21 88% consensus and this has the makings of a massacre. James Madison is 8-5 ATS, Oregon is 8-4 ATS. The Dukes lost by 14 to their only real competition this year at Louisville. Really JMU shouldn't be in the tournament and I think Oregon shows up and shows out with a big win. Ducks -21

Ole Miss -17.5 79% consensus - Miss 7-5 ATS was 45-10 when these two played earlier this year Rebels in a blowout, and no reason to think that they can't duplicate that result even with Kiffin gone, in-fact in the short term maybe that gives them a chip on their shoulder. Tulane should really not be in the tournament this is not gonna be a game most likely a blow out. Rebels -17.5

Miami +4 consensus split ATS has Texas A&M at 69% however the money line is where the Canes dollars are going where we find 74% on Miami +140. UM 7-5 ATS, Texas A&M 5-7 ATS. Two years ago these teams met to open the season. Different QBs and coaching staffs have changed a little too, but that game was a Miami win but in 2022 A&M won 17-9 when the game was played in College Station. For me this game just comes down to QB play and Carson Beck. He has never faced A&M before but he is national champion from his Georgia days and is no stranger to road SEC wins. I'll take the Canes and the points here Miami +4.

As always Best of Luck and enjoy your College Football Playoff.