As of October 5, 2026, fixed mortgage pricing is rising with bond yields while variable holds steady. Stephen Green breaks down what that gap means for buyers and renewers, why you need to understand the variable product you choose, and what's happening in the Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, London and St. Thomas markets.

In this episode:
• Bond yields, fixed mortgages and the coming rush to variable
• Static vs adjustable variable mortgages explained
• Lessons from the 2022 increases
• Why your broker should be monitoring your variable
• Months of inventory and price risk for sellers
• Stelco layoffs, manufacturing jobs and unemployment
• What's next: inflation data October 19, Bank of Canada October 28

Key takeaways:
1. Fixed mortgages follow bond yields; variable follows prime. They don't always move together.
2. A fixed-variable gap of roughly 0.75–1% has historically pushed borrowers toward variable.
3. Know your product: a static variable keeps your payment the same; an adjustable variable changes your payment when prime moves.
4. If you choose variable, make sure someone is monitoring it with you. Many lenders let you convert to a fixed term for your remaining term.
5. Get pre-approved early. A rate hold can protect your affordability while you shop.
6. Sellers: higher inventory means longer selling times and more price risk. Price to today's market.
7. Watch unemployment. It's one of the clearest early signals for the economy and housing.

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YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZwLHIk2V8EIkDeRVx4EjwA
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-green-effect-podcast/id1434969273
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6iKdA4EY2crIuYymE9SZd9
Libsyn: https://thegreeneffect.libsyn.com/thegreeneffect
Website: https://thefinancialcollective.ca
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SGMortgageAdvice
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sgmortgageadvice/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sgmortgageadvice/
Phone: 519-500-1789 | Email: stephen@thefinancialcollective.ca

General information only, not personal financial or mortgage advice.

Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker — The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. #13496

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate this week, and almost every headline stopped there. The more useful information was in the press conference, where the Bank said it is not ruling out an increase — because tariffs are inflationary and inflation has climbed to the top of their tolerance band.

In this episode Stephen Green breaks down what the central bank actually signalled, why headline inflation of 3% and core inflation of 2.2% tell two different stories, and what a soft August jobs report means for Canadian housing this fall.

In this episode:

- The Bank of Canada held, but explicitly did not rule out an increase
- Inflation hit 3% on the headline; strip out fuel and it is 2.2%
- Bond yields moved roughly 20 basis points across the month, and fixed mortgage pricing followed
- Canada lost 42,000 jobs in August, concentrated in full-time work
- Ontario shed 18,000 jobs; unemployment sits at 6.9% against 6.4% nationally
- Weak immigration is slowing population growth and reshaping the labour numbers
- Waterloo Region: sales down roughly 11%, new listings down roughly 15%, 36 days on market, 3.5 months of inventory
- Sellers are rejecting offers conditional on the sale of a buyer's property
- The new TFC app — no signup, no account, works on any device

Key takeaways:

1. Read the Bank of Canada's comments, not just the decision. The decision is the smaller half of the story.
2. Follow the employment numbers. If people are not working, they are not buying, and housing follows.
3. If you are carrying a renewal or a purchase into the fall, talk to a broker early rather than late.

If you get value from the show, subscribe and leave a five star review — it genuinely helps other Canadians find it.

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-green-effect-podcast/id1434969273
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6iKdA4EY2crIuYymE9SZd9
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZwLHIk2V8EIkDeRVx4EjwA
Libsyn: https://thegreeneffect.libsyn.com/thegreeneffect
Website: https://thefinancialcollective.ca

Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker — The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. #13496 | 519-500-1789 | stephen@thefinancialcollective.ca

A 50% tariff is going in. Canada is matching it dollar for dollar as of September 8. And the bond market moved the same morning the news landed. In this episode Stephen Green connects the trade-war headlines to the number that actually shows up on your mortgage statement.

IN THIS EPISODE:

• The 50% tariff, where the negotiation broke down, and Canada's dollar-for-dollar response
• Why the provinces are willing to play ball — but only within reason
• Bond yields dropped, and why fixed mortgage pricing follows the bond market
• Monoline lenders repriced last week, the big banks held, one moved the other way
• Pre-approvals, holds, and float-down monitoring — broker side versus bank side
• Tariffs as an inflationary force and what that means on the variable side
• Inflation at 3% — and the fuel story sitting underneath the headline
• The Bank of Canada's September 2 meeting and why a knee-jerk move is unlikely
• Waterloo Region and London / St. Thomas: prices are declining year over year
• The seller who turned down $900,000 chasing $950,000 in a falling market
• Why a disconnected realtor, broker and lawyer is how good deals die
• Renewals: there are no bad mortgage products, only bad recommendations

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

1. Fixed mortgage pricing tracks the bond market. Watching bonds is watching your mortgage.
2. Get pre-approved and get a hold in place — then make sure somebody is actually monitoring it for you.
3. Headline inflation and the story underneath it are two different things.
4. Know the market you are selling into. Yesterday's offer is not coming back on its own.
5. Your realtor, broker and lawyer need to be on the same email chain. That is what closes files.

If this episode was useful, follow the show and leave a five-star review — it helps other Canadian homeowners find it.

Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZwLHIk2V8EIkDeRVx4EjwA
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-green-effect-podcast/id1434969273
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6iKdA4EY2crIuYymE9SZd9
Website: https://thefinancialcollective.ca
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sgmortgageadvice/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sgmortgageadvice/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SGMortgageAdvice

Questions? Call 519-500-1789 or email stephen@thefinancialcollective.ca

Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker — The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. #13496

General information and commentary only. Not financial advice. No guarantees of any kind.