The Great Supply Hangover: Why 2026's Market Was Built 2 Years Ago
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The Great Supply Hangover: Why 2026's Market Was Built 2 Years Ago
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If you work in multifamily today—whether on-site or in the C-suite—you're feeling the pressure of the final and most intense phase of the supply wave. Elevated concessions, slowed rent growth, and fierce competition for residents are dominating the 2025 landscape. But while today feels heavy, the real story is already shifting beneath our feet.
The pipeline for new development has collapsed, with multifamily starts down more than 70% from their peaks and construction activity falling to levels not seen since 2012. High interest rates, insurance costs, and construction expenses didn't just slow development—they shut the factory down.
This sets the stage for a dramatic supply drought beginning in 2026. With completions projected to fall sharply over the next two years, analysts across CBRE, CoStar, Yardi Matrix and others agree: the shrinking pipeline will push rent growth back up as demand continues to outpace new supply. The operational pain of today is temporary—but your 2026 strategy needs to be built for a very different reality.