Timestamps:

0:30 Budget expectations, OBR leak, and response

4:29 Lifting of the two-child limit on the child element of Universal Credit

10:23 Clearing confusion around child benefit, two-child limit, and the benefit cap

14:01 Freezing tax thresholds

19:25 Smorgasbord of smaller taxes

28:26 Spencer reflects on his first Budget with the FAI

This episode explores whether the energy sector – and particularly the North East of Scotland – is at a genuine turning point. The conversation looks at how a “just transition” could play out for workers and supply chains as the North Sea continues to decline, and how policy choices over the next five to seven years could mean either many more jobs in offshore energy or a sharp loss of capacity and capability. The guests unpack the idea of an “energy workforce”, not tied to a single fuel, and discuss how companies are increasingly global, chasing projects and moving people across borders while trying to stay agile in a volatile market.

Alongside that, they dig into the UK’s shifting tax regime in the North Sea, the impact of the windfall levy, the challenges of the current investment climate, and the added frictions from employment law changes and immigration policy. New modelling shows that the pace of decline in oil and gas could have material economic impacts, especially for Scotland and the North East, where offshore activity underpins a large share of jobs and GVA. Despite the risks and recent redundancies, the tone ends up cautiously optimistic: with clearer policy, better signalling from government and the right incentives, the UK still has the chance to turn its existing strengths – workforce, supply chain and North Sea assets – into a world-class, net zero-focused energy powerhouse.

This episode is the fifth in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. Culminating in a landmark event in March 2026, this collaboration will unveil ground-breaking insights and provide a platform for action. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.

Timestamps
(00:00) - (04:30) - Welcome, context & guest introductions
(04:30) - (12:30) - Is the energy sector at a turning point? – “Striking the Balance”
(12:30) - (21:00) - From oil & gas to an “energy workforce” and a global supply chain
(21:00) - (31:30) - Investment climate and the North Sea fiscal regime
(31:30) - (38:00) - Employment rights, immigration policy and agility
(38:00) - (42:00) - Economic modelling: managed vs accelerated decline
(42:00) - (45:41) - Lessons from 2015, current mood & reasons for optimism

The full transcript is available here.

(06:25) Setting the Scene: Sector Snapshot & Data Challenges - Opening context, series aims, and the recurring measurement/data issues in the sector.
(11:43) — Jobs & Output: 47k Roles and £15.5bn Activity - Headline figures and what they signal about deployment and momentum.
(17:02) — Beyond Either/Or: Oil & Gas and Renewables Together - Why “one rises as the other falls” is a false dichotomy; the supply-chain reality.
(22:20) — Grid, Supply Chain & Investor Confidence - Electrification, grid buildout, portfolio procurement, and the need to secure volume.(27:39) — Communities & Skills: Place-Based Opportunities - Thriving industries mean thriving communities; skills pathways and careers.
(32:57) — Regional Tour: Inverness, Ardrishaig & the ‘Electric Highway’ - Examples of local investments and EV-enabled connectivity.
(38:15) — Shetland & Viking Wind: Community Stakes and Lessons -Decarbonisation at Sullom Voe and community participation challenges around Viking.
(48:52) — Reality Check Since 2022: Costs, Pace and What’s Next - How rising input costs and programme pace shape near-term priorities and delivery.

Clarification 15/9/25 - Victor Bulmer-Thomas did not resign as Director of Chatham House in 2003 over the Iraq war. He left at the end of 2006, although he did author a paper on Blair's foreign policy that was very critical of the invasion.