The Fox, the Hedgehog, and a Bad Peace: This Week’s Lesson on Ukraine
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The Fox, the Hedgehog, and a Bad Peace: This Week’s Lesson on Ukraine
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This analysis explores the unfolding Ukraine peace negotiations through the lens of Archilochus’s metaphor of the fox and the hedgehog. The U.S.–Russia 28-point proposal, pushed by Donald Trump, is dissected as a tactical, transactional “fox” document—rich in clauses, deals, and improvisations—while Vladimir Putin’s approach is interpreted as the relentless, single-minded logic of the “hedgehog,” focused on Ukrainian subordination and territorial control. The text explains the differences between the U.S. plan and European counter-proposals, identifies the clauses that jeopardize Ukrainian security, and examines how European leaders now face a decisive moment: whether to passively accept a flawed settlement or actively reshape the geopolitical terms of peace. The piece concludes with a forecast of the likely outcomes over the coming year, stressing the dangers of a bad peace and the strategic importance of European agency.