A new report from Verisk predicts a “new reality” in future natural catastrophes, with unprecedented global losses to exceed $152 billion annually. It’s being driven by “frequency perils” − frequent events, such as daily afternoon summer storms and hurricanes, that are driving high-impact losses.

Former Florida Deputy Insurance Commissioner Lisa Miller sits down with a Verisk modeler and a Florida property insurance company meteorologist and risk analyst, to discuss how catastrophe modeling works, how insurance companies use it to set homeowners rates, and its importance in understanding and mitigating extreme weather risks now and in the future.

Show Notes (For full Show Notes, visit https://lisamillerassociates.com/episode-60-our-growing-catastrophe-risk/)

The podcast discusses the increasing frequency and severity of storms and their impact on property insurance rates, particularly in Florida. Dr. Julia Borman is Assistant Vice President of the Regulatory and Rating Client Services Team at Verisk. It’s part of the data analytic firm’s Extreme Event Solutions division, which assists clients in working with regulators and rating agencies on a variety of projects, including data calls, utilizing catastrophe modeling in rating plans, and stress tests. Natalie Ferrari is a Meteorologist and Catastrophic Risk Analyst for American Integrity Insurance Company, based in Tampa, Florida. She provides data-driven insights into developing storms and their potential impacts by leveraging Verisk’s modeling. Together, with host Miller, they explored the evolving landscape of catastrophic risk modeling in rate filings and regulatory processes, the intensifying impact of extreme weather, and the need for resilience and preparedness in the face of natural disasters that modeling can guide.

Catastrophe Models: The Backbone of Modern Insurance

Verisk’s newest report, Modeling Insured Catastrophe Losses: A Global Perspective for 2025, projects expected future global losses to exceed $152 billion annually. That’s up from the $132 billion annual average loss over the past five years. Host Miller quoted Verisk Extreme Event Solutions President Rob Newbold’s remarks on the September 2025 report, that “the modeled losses reflect a fundamental shift in the risk landscape. Natural catastrophe losses are no longer statistical anomalies. They are the new normal.”

Borman said the report’s $152 billion figure is a particularly significant one, given that the actual global losses in 2024 were around $137 billion. “Over half of it was what we call frequency peril loss. You used to hear around the industry, folks were calling things like severe thunderstorms and wildfire ‘secondary perils.’ We don't call them that at Verisk anymore. They are frequency perils based on the fact that they happen often, typically within a year and those can really aggregate up into a large proportion of an insurance company's overall loss for the year,” Borman said.

The catastrophe models look at a variety of different perils, including hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding, wildfires, and winter storms. “We were writing the report not just to understand the total amount of loss, but also the insurance gap that might exist around the world and where that was most prevalent,” she added. (For full Show Notes, visit https://lisamillerassociates.com/episode-60-our-growing-catastrophe-risk/)

An article in the Wall Street Journal suggests that Florida’s property insurance market is inherently flawed and financially shaky, under the review of a smaller ratings company. It cites the 12 insurance company insolvencies between 2019 and 2023 in a market painted as over-reliant on reinsurance.

Former Florida Deputy Insurance Commissioner Lisa Miller sits down with Demotech President & CEO Joe Petrelli and former Florida Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty to explain the unique nature of Florida’s market, how financial ratings of insurance companies are formulated, the critical role of reinsurance, the confusion between rate and premium, and the real reasons behind those insolvencies.

Show Notes (For full Show Notes, visit https://lisamillerassociates.com/episode-59-how-secure-is-floridas-property-insurance-market/)

Host Miller discussed the evolution of Florida's property insurance market following 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, highlighting the departure of large insurers and the rise of smaller, regional companies that still make up most of today’s market. Miller, an employee of the then Department of Insurance, said “large legacy insurance companies left our state altogether, saying the risk exposure was just too great. Likewise, after 2017’s Hurricane Irma, other companies stopped writing new policies.”

Florida’s Unique Market
Miller noted that the state’s property insurance market has adapted over the ensuing 33 years to continue to provide needed insurance “for what's become one of the riskiest places on earth to insure. It has unique challenges that have prompted innovative solutions.” One of those solutions was Demotech, a Columbus, Ohio-based actuarial firm that provided ratings for Florida’s new regional companies when other ratings companies would not.

Demotech’s Role
Demotech President Joe Petrelli said its specialty in reviewing and assigning Financial Stability Ratings (FSRs) for independent regional carriers was born of the need of federal mortgage backers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 1988, who together own or insure a substantial number of home mortgages nationwide. They vetted Demotech’s ratings methodology and today, the firm provides FSRs for most of the 55 Florida based property insurance companies, including some of the recent 14 carriers who’ve entered the market since the Florida Legislature’s 2022-2023 litigation and consumer protection reforms. Now in its 40th year, Demotech rates insurance companies across the nation that write billions of dollars of premiums.

“We look at carriers independent of their size. We look at them based on their business model, the execution of that business model, and the complementary nature of their reinsurance program,” said Petrelli. “So I think that's what makes us unique. I think when we look at catastrophe prone areas, whether it's wind, fire, tornado, hail, earthquake, what we're looking at is, does your reinsurance program give you the claims paying ability that you need?” (For full Show Notes, visit https://lisamillerassociates.com/episode-59-how-secure-is-floridas-property-insurance-market/)

Nine months after hurricanes Helene and Milton struck Florida, new insurance claims data is revealing the growing amount of damage not covered by insurance. Of the more than half a million combined claims filed so far, 56% of Helene residential claims were closed without payment and about 43% of Milton residential claims. A closer look shows the majority were uninsured or underinsured.

Former Florida Deputy Insurance Commissioner Lisa Miller sat down with the heads of an insurance agency and a claims adjusting firm to find out why this is happening, how to determine proper coverage this hurricane season, and improvements in claims processes and technology.

Show Notes (For full Show Notes, visit https://lisamillerassociates.com/episode-58-the-17-reasons-your-florida-claim-wasnt-paid/)

When hurricanes Helene and Milton swept through Florida, they left more than just physical devastation in their wake − they exposed critical gaps in homeowners’ understanding of natural risk and insurance coverage, especially regarding flood protection. In this podcast, host Lisa Miller talked with two industry veterans − Lee Wiglesworth, President of Wiglesworth-Rindom Insurance Agency in Stuart, Florida, and Fraser Hudson, CEO of Lozano Insurance Adjusters of St. Petersburg − to dissect the data, debunk common myths, and offer actionable advice for insurance agents and Florida policyholders facing the daunting world of insurance claims. From claims to coverage, they discussed what every Florida property owner must know after hurricanes Helene and Milton. The podcast also provides a deep dive into Florida’s insurance landscape.

Reasons for Uninsured/Underinsured Properties

Hurricane Helene and Milton Florida insurance claims now total $7.3 billion with more than 90% of claims closed, according to the Florida of Insurance Regulation (OIR), in its June 10, 2025 claims update, the first since November 2024, just weeks after the storms’ landfalls. More than a half a million claims (519,689) have been filed across all insurance lines. On homeowners claims, the data shows that 56% of Helene residential claims have been closed without payment and about 43% of Milton residential claims. The majority of those unpaid claims were flood damage not covered under a homeowners policy or the damage was below the policy deductible, per the table below. (For full Show Notes, visit https://lisamillerassociates.com/episode-58-the-17-reasons-your-florida-claim-wasnt-paid/)